2024 Royal Ascot Saturday Preview

We had to make do with one place on Friday, at least it was our NAP Mondo Man and it was better than the blanks we had on Tuesday and Wednesday. California Dreamer and Classic Flower both ran blinders but finished one place out of the money. As for our handicap bets, shocking. One last chance to dance now, Dave’s 2024 Royal Ascot Saturday preview is below.

2.30 – Chesham Stakes (Listed)

I think it is safe to say at this stage that being drawn middle to high is key on the straight track. The favourite, Bedtime Story, is drawn in stall 3 and that has to rate as a big negative. The second favourite Age Of Gold has a much kinder draw in stall 12 and that could prove to be decisive.

The one I like from a good draw in stall 15 is Brian. Sylvester Kirk trains this son of Shaman and he just failed behind Coventry fourth Cool Hoof Luke at Chelmsford last time out. That rival possibly just had a bit too much speed for him late on but it was still a fine effort.

This lad showed a heap of promise on his debut too. In that 6f heat at Windsor he was slow away but he travelled like a tank throughout the race. Liam Keniry tried to chart a passage up the inner but by the time he found daylight, the leaders had flown. Brian still finished off his race very nicely for fourth and he seemed to relish the fast ground.

On the evidence of that Windsor run especially he looks well worth a try over this 7f trip. He hasn’t got the flashiest of pedigrees but he has ability and there could be plenty more to come from him on this rattling quick ground. At odds of 33/1, Brian is the e/w selection.

2024 Royal Ascot Saturday Tip: Brian e/w @ 33/1 (4 places)

3.05 – Hardwicke Stakes (Group 2)

A race likely to be dominated by the horses at the head of the market. I was a bit tempted by Elegant Man but all his half siblings were best on artificial surfaces and it looks like he is of a similar ilk. The son of Arrogate was well below his all weather form on his turf debut last month so we’ll leave this race alone. No bet.  

2024 Royal Ascot Saturday Tip: No Bet

3.45 – Queen Elizabeth II Jubilee Stakes (Group 1)

The one that looks most overpriced to me here is Swingalong. Trained by Karl Burke, this fast daughter of Showcasing has run crackers on both previous visits to Ascot. In last year’s Commonwealth Cup she ran huge to finish 2L third behind Shaquille.

She then came back for the Champion Sprint in October and on softer ground, she was beat just 2.5L behind Art Power. On this faster surface I’d give her every chance of turning that form around.

Burke’s charge made a satisfactory reappearance at York last month. That should have left her spot on for a crack at this prize and I would imagine this has always been the plan for her. If she can repeat the form she showed in his final four runs of last season, she should not be far away. At odds of 16/1, back Swingalong e/w.

2024 Royal Ascot Saturday Tip: Swingalong e/w @ 16/1 (4 places) NB

4.25 – Jersey Stakes (Group 3)

No point in even looking at anything drawn low here on the evidence of the Buckingham Palace yesterday. Haatem has been handed a very nice draw in stall 15 and he deserves to get his head in front after two superb efforts in the Irish and English 2000 Guineas. However, he had two really hard races last month and the question is, will they have left a mark?

One that might offer a bit of value from an e/w perspective is the Roger Varian trained Boiling Point. This colt is drawn nice and high in stall 17 and he is a very consistent animal. Bar a third placed finish on his sole start on easy ground, he has finished in the first two on all of his starts to date.

Last year he got to within a short head of Alyanaabi in a Newmarket G3 (7f gd/fm), since fifth in the 2000 Guineas and also in the St James’ Palace. Eben Shaddad was nearly 3L back in third. He ran a decent race on his seasonal comeback behind Ten Bob Tony, since a close fourth in a German G3.

Boiling Point finally got off the mark in stakes company in a Listed race at Newmarket last time (7f gd). I think this properly fast ground is really going to suit him and so will this stiff track. I’m not sure he should be bigger than Eben Shaddad and he’ll have the assistance of Tom Marquand in the saddle.  At odds of 20/1, Boiling Point can hit the frame.

2024 Royal Ascot Saturday Tip: Boiling Point e/w @ 20/1 (4 places) NAP

5.05 – Wokingham Stakes Handicap (Class 2)

My strategy of backing proven handicappers rather than unexposed horses has backfired this week. We’ve got two chances left to put things right and our first opportunity comes in this 6f, 28 runner battle charge. The one I am going to weigh down with my cash here is the Sheila Lavery trained Torivega.

By Lope De Vega, this 4yo has only had eight starts and he has progressed nicely so far. He has shown a liking for good ground in Ireland and I think Lavery might have come over here to get proper good to firm ground. Those kind of conditions have become a rarity in Ireland due to the irrational fear of fast ground. Not ideal if you own a horse that wants it like the road.

Good Ground Key

This horse has had three runs on good ground. The first one came in a Naas G3 (6f gd) and he ran a blinder at huge odds to finish just 4l behind The Antarctic. 2.75L in front of him was Shartash, now rated 111 and Thunderbear, now rated 105.

His next start on good ground saw him shed his maiden tag at Cork. Then, on his seasonal return back in May he ran a massive race to finish a close third in a 6f handicap at the Curragh on good ground off 95. He’s only 3lbs higher here and he should be well suited by a fast run 6f on a stiff track.

Sheila Lavery should have had a winner here last year with Moracana, hopefully Torivega gets more luck than she did. At odds of 25/1, he is the e/w selection.

2024 Royal Ascot Saturday Tip: Torivega e/w @ 25/1 (6 places)

5.40 – Golden Gate Stakes Handicap (Class 2)

We backed Treasure in the Epsom Oaks and she ran an absolute shocker. That can often happen to horses at Epsom as it is a very tricky track. The daughter of Mastercraftsman is possibly better judged on her second career start in the Oaks Trial at Lingfield (11.5f gd).

In that race she finished just 1.75L behind You Got To Me in fourth. She ran a very nice race in the Ribblesdale here earlier this week. Danielle, a head in front of Treasure in third at Lingfield, also ran ok in the Ribblesdale and I’d imagine she’ll be rated at least 100 after that run.

Ralph Beckett has decided to go down the handicap route with Treasure and on that Lingfield effort, her mark of 95 could be workable. I wonder if he thinks this could be a great chance to give The King a winner at the Royal meeting?

The cheekpieces will hopefully help her to focus better than she did at Epsom and Rossa Ryan is back on board. He won a handicap for Beckett here earlier this week. Her draw in stall 9 shouldn’t be a hindrance, the drop back to 10f could suit and the dam side of her pedigree suggests that this ground should be fine. At odds of 25/1, hopefully Treasure can send us home happy after a tough week.

2024 Royal Ascot Saturday Tip: Treasure e/w @ 25/1 (5 places)

-DaveStevos