2024 Royal Ascot Tuesday Preview & Tips – DS
2024 Royal Ascot Tuesday Preview
The best week of racing of the year is almost upon us. The sun has been shining, the ground will be quick and each and almost every race is stacked with quality. We have ticked over nicely with some decent places in the last couple of weeks, hopefully we can finally nail a few big winners in the coming days. Fingers crossed it is a brilliant week of racing, check out Dave’s 2024 Royal Ascot Tuesday preview below.
2.30 – Queen Anne Stakes (Group 1)
What a start to the meeting this race is. Fourteen horses have been declared and it looks like it will be run at a breakneck gallop. Big Rock, Audience, Brave Emperor and possibly Poker Face could all want to lead and I am going to bank on the pace collapsing late on.
Witch Hunter ran a blinder for us from off the pace in the Lockinge to nick a place. This race will be run to suit him and he was a handicap winner at this meeting over 7f on fast ground last year.
However, he had a month long break before his win here in 2023 and this time, he’s had just ten days off since running down the field in a Listed race at Haydock. It doesn’t look to me like he’s been trained as though this was his seasonal target so I am leaving him alone. That probably makes him a certainty now!
Huge Price
At a massive price, Cairo could also be well suited by a furious gallop over 8f. If you look at his form, there is no way he should be a 66/1 shot. Maybe it’s based on the fact that he was beat 2.25L in Listed company at Leopardstown last time but it was a messy, muddling race and I think Alice Haynes may have been using it as a sighter for this.
Last year, this son of Quality Road ran a cracker in the Irish 2000 Guineas. Paddington won it but he ran on really well for second and he had Charyn (3/1 here) and Royal Scotsman (20/1 here) in behind him. After that fine effort, his form was a bit in and out but my theory is that he possibly might have had wind issues.
The fact that Alice Haynes stuck a tongue tie on him at Leopardstown suggests that may have been the case and given how he finished off his race in Dublin, the equipment may have done the trick. A rapidly run race on good to firm ground over this distance could be exactly what this 4yo wants and if he is back to the level he showed in that Irish Guineas, Cairo is capable of outrunning his odds of 66/1.
2024 Royal Ascot Tuesday Tip: Cairo e/w @ 66/1 (4 places)
3.05 – Coventry Stakes (Group 1)
What an open looking renewal this is. As is always the case with these early season 2yo races, certain horses can improve massively from what they have done previously. Looking back at previous results, since 2010 seven winners have been drawn middle to high, and seven winners have come from single figure draws. So, the draw isn’t really that important, what matters is where the early pace will come from.
With the likes of Arran (22), Symbol of Honour (20), Star Anthem (17) and Electrolyte (18) all drawn high, I think that might be the place to be. The one I have come down on is Nascimento in stall 13 for Micheal Bell and Jamie Spencer.
On debut at Yarmouth, Ryan Moore rode this son of Cotai Glory (6f gd/sft). He looked a big, strong type and he travelled through the race well. As they hit the furlong pole Moore went for the persuader and his mount lugged into the left, looking green. He ended up just missing out on second by a neck, finishing 1.5L behind the winner Age Of Gold.
Valuable Experience
My hope is that he’ll be more professional this time with that experience under his belt. I am also optimistic that this much faster ground will be more to his liking. His sire, Cotai Glory, has only a 22% winner to runner strike rate on good to soft (14% on soft) whereas on good to firm, that rises to 31%.
His full brother, Super King, won a valuable sales race at the Curragh at 2yo over 6.5f on good ground. Nascimento’s dam also liked quick ground, as do most of her relations, so the conditions at Ascot should be right up his street.
I would expect Spencer to drop this fella out early and try to come from off the pace. He’ll either stay out the back or come with a late rattle if the pace collapses and I hope it’s the latter scenario. At odds of 40/1, Nascimento is the e/w selection.
2024 Royal Ascot Tuesday Tip: Nascimento e/w @ 40/1 (5 places)
3.45 – King Charles III Stakes (Group 1)
I have already put Makarova up for this race at 50/1 (read here). Paul Mulrennan has been booked for the ride and she has been drawn in stall 5. The blinkers go on for the first time and if they can eke out a bit more improvement on her excellent efforts at York and Longchamp last season, she is more than capable of hitting the frame here. I am happy to stick with her, hopefully she stays on fast and late for the each way money.
2024 Royal Ascot Tuesday Tip: Makarova already advised e/w @ 50/1 NAP
4.25 – St James’s Palace Stakes (Group 1)
The one that looks well overpriced in this contest is Alyanaabi. Trained by Owen Burrows, this horse has some very decent form in the book. A winner at Salisbury on debut (6f gd/fm), he ran a cracker here over 7f on his second career start in Listed company. It wasn’t Jim Crowley’s finest hour in the saddle but he finished 4th, 4.75L behind Rosallion.
In behind him that day were Sunway and Dancing Gemini so the form is solid. Ancient Wisdom was a nose in front and he won the G1 Futurity subsequently. Alyanaabi landed a G3 at Newmarket on his next outing (7f gd/fm), making it 2/2 on good to firm ground.
City Of Troy Form
On his final 2yo start he tackled soft ground at Newmarket and he ran huge to finish 3.5L second to City Of Troy. This season his sole run came in the 2000 Guineas and he was far from disgraced in fifth, 2.25L behind the runner up Rosallion and 4.75L behind the winner Notable Speech. I hope he comes on for that outing and I am also hoping that the rattling quick ground will bring about a better display this afternoon.
He doesn’t have to improve that much to get closer to Rosallion and Notable Speech had the benefit of a prep run when winning at Newmarket. I don’t think he should be such a big price compared to those two so at 22/1, Alyanaabi is the e/w selection.
2024 Royal Ascot Tuesday Tip: Alyanaabi e/w @ 22/1
5.05 – Ascot Stakes (Heritage Handicap)
A glorified bumper for slow horses and a race I have no interest in betting on. No bet.
2024 Royal Ascot Tuesday Tip: No bet
5.40 – Wolferton Stakes (Listed)
Long time followers might remember me tipping up Malavath at the Breeders’ Cup back in 2021 and 2022. Knight is her full brother and amazingly, the 4yo has never had the chance to run on fast ground like this.
The best ground he ever got was good to soft on his debut at Yarmouth in 2022 and he hacked up. He then landed the G3 Horris Hill at Newbury on heavy ground on his second start and that was it for his 2yo campaign.
Soft Ground
Last year he ran four times, all on soft ground. He went very close in a Goodwood G2 (8f) and he was a head behind Chindit at Sandown (8f), form that would give him every chance in this race. However, he was below par on his last run of 2023 at Newmarket (9f sft) and this year’s seasonal return at Doncaster back in March was another underwhelming effort.
The visor he tried that day has been discarded and Mickael Barzalona gets the leg up for the first time. If Knight is anything like his sister, he could relish this fast ground and there is stamina on the dam side of his pedigree so hopefully, he’ll get the trip. In an open looking race, Knight is the e/w selection at odds of 22/1.
2024 Royal Ascot Tuesday Tip: Knight e/w @ 22/1 (4 places)
6.15 – Copper Horse Handicap (Class 2)
My hopes of getting a nice price on A Piece Of Heaven were dashed a couple of weeks ago. News broke that the horse had been sold, taken off Barry Fitzgerald and moved to Joseph O’Brien’s yard. The market often underestimates the smaller yards at these big meetings but now that he is with O’Brien, the bookies have taken note and he is as short as 6/1. Not much use to us, unfortunately, but the ground is perfect for him and he’ll likely run a massive race.
One that could go well at a monster price is the 50/1 rag, Lucander. Trained by George Baker, this horse has run really well on his last two trips to Ascot. He ran here twice last summer over 12f. On the first occasion he finished 10th off 103 in the Duke Of Edinburgh on good to firm, but he was only 4.75L behind the winner Okita Soushi and he stayed on fairly nicely in the last furlong.
Late Gains
He came back a few weeks later and on easier ground he again made late gains to finish fourth, beat 3L off 102. Lucander spent the winter in Bahrain where he held his form well, winning a 40k handicap and running a couple of nice races in Listed company, including one at 12f when he again finished off his race strongly behind Isle Of Jura. He was only 0.5L behind the 114 rated King of Conquest at the finish, so his current mark of 100 may not be beyond him.
Surprisingly, this will be the first time he has ever tackled further than 12f. He has shaped as though this extra 2f would suit on more than one occasion and if he could repeat the level of form he showed at this meeting last year, he is capable of being competitive off 3lbs lower. Quick ground suits, his last run at Epsom was probably just a prep for this and I think Lucander is worth chancing at odds of 50/1.
