2024 Sandown & Aintree Saturday Preview – DS
2024 Sandown & Aintree Saturday Preview
Last weekend saw us land a badly needed winner with Navajo Indy. Kinondo Kwetu wasn’t far off placing and Sam Brown got outpaced on the quick ground. This weekend is a nice warm up for the Festive season with a couple of Grade 1s and some quality handicaps. Check out Dave Stevos’ 2024 Sandown & Aintree Saturday previews and tips below.
1.15 Sandown – Pertemps Handicap Hurdle (Class 2)
These Pertemps qualifiers have not been a happy hunting ground for us this year. The first four home qualify for the final at Cheltenham in March and the going on the hurdle course at Sandown is soft, heavy in places. To be honest, it is hard to make a case for anything at a price on this ground.
Authorized Art has won on heavy but all of his best recent form is on ground with good in the description. Ike Sport has won here over 2m4f but that was on good ground and Grozni is another one that would probably prefer a sounder surface. Operation Manna will relish the conditions and if he is fit, he could be the one to be on but he is just 7/1.
I am going to give this race a miss, no bet.
2024 Sandown & Aintree Saturday Tip: No bet
1.32 Aintree – Boylesports Handicap Chase (Class 2)
Just like at Sandown, the ground is going to be testing on Merseyside. The one that makes most appeal at a price in this handicap chase is Real Stone. A maiden hurdle winner here back in 2020 on soft, he is a horse that enjoys getting his toe in. Three of his four career wins have come on soft ground and he has run respectably on heavy.
He’s been off since falling at Hereford in March earlier this year. His fitness has to be taken on trust but he has won first time up before and he didn’t run too badly here on his seasonal reappearance last year when fourth of 9 off 125.
He’ll be racing off a mark of 128 here, the same mark off which he was a 5.5l second at Newbury (16f, hvy) on his penultimate start. The son of Arvico hasn’t run over this trip since finishing a 1.5l second at Uttoxeter back in April 2023, which is a bit strange as two of his four career wins have come at the trip.
Fergus Gillard has a decent record when riding for Dan Skelton (13/101 with 34 top 4s), he ticks the course form box and he’ll handle the ground. The lack of a run is an obvious negative but at odds of 12/1, hopefully Real Stone is fit enough to run into a place.
2024 Sandown & Aintree Saturday Tip: Real Stone e/w @ 12/1
1.50 Sandown – Henry VII Novices’ Chase (Grade 1)
An intriguing Grade 1. Who would I like to see win? Soul Icon, of course, but this trip looks to be on the sharp side for him and he’s probably at his best on better ground. L’Eau du Sud is even money to win for the Skeltons and with a rating of 151, he does set the standard. However, his best form by some distance has come on good ground, including his impressive win at Cheltenham three weeks ago, so he could be vulnerable in these conditions.
Gordon Elliott runs two and the market prefers Down Memory Lane of his pair. However, his best form has also come on better ground than this and the same sentiment applies to the Paul Nicholls trained Rubaud, who has won his last two starts on good ground.
That leaves us with Elliott’s other entry, Touch Me Not. He hacked up in a Punchestown Grade 2 on soft ground last time out and he won his maiden hurdle at Tramore, so we know he likes going right handed. Whether he is up to this level remains to be seen but he looks a decent price at 11/2 and at the odds, I think a small win bet in warranted.
2024 Sandown & Aintree Saturday Tip: Touch Me Not win @ 11/2
2.07 Aintree – Becher Handicap Chase (Premier)
We have already backed Percussion for this race ante-post (read why here). I said in my reasoning that I’d prefer a bit of nice ground but he does handle heavy and it’s interesting to see the cheekpieces replaced by a visor. Hopefully he runs a nice race for us.
2024 Sandown & Aintree Saturday Tip: Percussion already advised e/w @ 20/1 (4 places) NAP
2.25 Sandown – Betfair Handicap Hurdle (Class 2)
Now that he gets his ground for the first time this season, Zambezi Fix is the each way selection here. Trained in Wales by Bernard Llewellyn, this son of Zambezi Sun may have been targeted at this race. He lost both his front shoes when finishing well beaten on his return to action here last month but he shaped with a bit more promise on his last start when beaten 8.5l into fourth off 125 at Kempton.
The handicapper has dropped him to 123 so he is just 2lb above his last winning mark. He has run well at this track on more than one occasion, including a second in this race back in 2021 off 126. He was beaten 0.5l off 127 on heavy over C&D in January 2022, so clearly, he acts at this venue.
Ellis Collier’s claim means he is effectively running off 116 here and he’s been on board for both his runs this season, so he has gotten to know him. The more rain that falls, the better his chance will be, hopefully Storm Darragh delivers a deluge. At odds of 20/1, Zambezi Fix is worth backing each way.
2024 Sandown & Aintree Saturday Tip: Zambezi Fix e/w @ 20/1
3.00 Sandown – Tingle Creek Chase (Grade 1)
The main event. Jonbon is a short price to retain his crown and he is hard to oppose around here. The ground was heavy when he beat Edwardstone by 2.75l in this last year and it is hard to see Alan King’s charge turning that form around.
Quilixios produced a huge career best when beating Marine Nationale easily at Naas (16f, good) on his seasonal reappearance but even a repeat of that wouldn’t be enough to trouble Jonbon. It’ll be very different ground here too and consistency has never been a strong suit for him.
The only one that I can make some sort of case for at a price is the other Irish raider, Solness. He ran a cracker at Navan in the Grade 2 Fortria Chase last month (16f, yld), finishing just a neck behind Found A Fifty. He likes going right handed, he has won on heavy and soft ground and he’ll have the assistance of the top class Danny Mullins in the saddle. I doubt he can beat Jonbon but with eight runners and three places on offer, Solness is worth chancing e/w for small stakes at odds of 33/1.
2024 Sandown & Aintree Saturday Tip: Solness e/w @ 33/1
3.17 Aintree – Handicap Hurdle (Class 2)
The lightly raced mare The Lord Maid is interesting here at a half-decent price. A heavy ground maiden hurdle winner at Clonmel for Josh Halley in February, this daughter of Mount Nelson has done nothing wrong in her first two starts for Tom Lacey.
On her stable debut in April at Southwell she won a mares’ novice very nicely over 2m4f and she was sent on her summer holidays after that run. She made her return to action in a 21f Warwick mares’ handicap hurdle last month and she ran a very nice race in second, shaping like she may have needed the run.
It was an excellent first try in handicap company and the assessor has only raised her 1lb for that run. The return to more testing ground and drop back to 2m4f are causes for optimism and she is pretty unexposed in comparison to some of her rivals here. At odds of 14/1, The Lord Maid is worth backing e/w.
2024 Sandown & Aintree Saturday Tip: The Lord Maid e/w @ 14/1 (4 places) nb
3.35 Sandown – London National Handicap Chase (Class 2)
Last season, we were pretty unfortunate to miss out on a possible nice win with Conkwell Legend. He looked like going close when he hit the front in a veterans’ handicap chase at Exeter (3m, hvy) but unfortunately, he made a mistake and fell at the third last. That effort came off 125 and he returns to action off a mark of 122 today.
He won a handicap hurdle off 117 on his first visit to this track, over 2m4f on heavy. Testing ground is important to Neil Mulholland’s charge and he’ll certainly have his favoured conditions here. He has placed over this far (and over 3m6f) so his stamina is not in question, but he does lack a recent run and he can make the occasional jumping mistake, so there are obvious risks attached.
However, he has gone well fresh before and Neil Mulholland has had a couple of winners in the past fortnight so hopefully, he has him ready to rock and roll on Saturday. Brendan Powell has won or placed in 40% of his rides for this yard, hopefully he can add to that tally on Conkwell Legend at odds of 20/1.
