2024 Sandown & Haydock Saturday Preview – DS
2024 Sandown & Haydock Saturday Preview
Another string of near misses for us last weekend at the Curragh. Jakajaro was beat less than a length for the win but didn’t place. Big Gossey finished sixth and we were on for five places. Norwalk Havoc was done on the nod for a place too. Sunway rattled the crossbar in the big one, but at least we collected the e/w money. Hopefully we get a bit more luck this weekend, 2024 Sandown & Haydock Saturday tips are below.
1.50 Sandown – Coral Charge (Group 3)
There’s lots of rain forecast at Sandown and at the time of writing, they’d already had 6mm in around 12 hours. There’s already soft in places in the ground description, by the time of this race tomorrow I’d imagine it’ll be soft all over and if the forecast is correct, it could even turn heavy. The joys of a traditional British summer…
It is no surprise to see the blinkers taken off Makarova here. Ed Walker’s decision to put them on at Ascot backfired and while she still ran ok, they lit her up and being close to the pace early simply does not suit this mare. I don’t think testing ground will suit her and, in any case, she’s too short for the blog today. Hopefully we’ll recoup our Ascot losses on her later in the season.
Likes Cut In The Ground
3yos haven’t got a bad record in this race and at 33/1, Unbreak My Heart could run into the frame in these conditions. With an official rating of just 95, she has no chance on paper. However, she has run the best two races of her life when she has had cut in the ground, an excellent effort over this C&D in the Listed Scurry Stakes last month and a 2L 3rd in a Newmarket G3 last October.
In the Scurry, Unbreak My Heart was only beat 1.5L for the win. She didn’t enjoy a clear run in the closing stages and 2F out, she was travelling as well as, if not better, than all her rivals. At Newmarket, she had to switch at the 1f pole when coming with a strong run so she could have finished even closer to the winner with a smoother passage.
On those two runs, I make her at least a 100 horse. She gets 8lbs from the 4/1 second favourite Twilight Calls, who is rated 106, so if I am correct, she should not be far away from him. Richard Kingscote replaces Jim Crowley in the saddle and while he isn’t my favourite jockey, he has a 56% frame hitting strike rate for Clive Cox (20/118 with 46 top 4s). At 33/1, Unbreak My Heart is worth chancing e/w.
2024 Sandown & Haydock Saturday Tip: Unbreak My Heart e/w @ 33/1 NB
2.05 Haydock – Bet365 Handicap (Class 2)
There isn’t quite as much rain forecast at Haydock but there should be at least some soft in the ground description. The first live race from there is this competitive looking 14f handicap and 14 have been declared.
Off a nice low weight, Filibustering could go well. Trained by Tim Easterby, this horse enjoys a bit of dig in the ground. The son of Postponed was touched off by The Crafty Mole on his seasonal return off 63 at Wetherby (14f sft) and the winner was rated 50. He has since gone on to win three of his next four races, the last coming off 67, so it was a fine effort by Filibustering.
Easterby’s charge confirmed the promise of that run by hacking up on his next soft ground start at Redcar off 66, again at 14F. That earned him a rise to 74 but his last two runs, on ground quicker than ideal, showed he can be competitive off his revised mark. His form figures on soft/gd to sft at 12f to 14f read 212, hopefully he can run another big race here at odds of 20/1 with Harry Davies in the plate.
2024 Sandown & Haydock Saturday Tip: Filibustering e/w @ 20/1 (4 places)
2.25 Sandown – Coral Challenge Handicap (Class 2)
Classic is a horse I like but he has flopped on his last two runs on soft ground. The outsider Silent Film probably wants faster ground than he’ll get here and the only one at a half decent price I can make a case for is Magic Memories for the Moores with Hayley Turner on board.
This son of Starspangledbanner loves soft ground. He ran a blinder off 80 in the Spring Mile at Donny back in March on soft and in seven career starts on soft at 7f/8f, he has only finished out of the frame once.
Last time out he won a Yarmouth Handicap off 80 and it looked like he still had plenty up his sleeve at the finish. A 3lbs rise doesn’t look too harsh for that win and on his previous outing over this C&D, in the Whitsun Cup (8f sft), he finished just 1.5L behind Dual Identity. He’s a pound better off with that rival today. Odds of 12/1 are just about big enough to warrant an e/w interest.
2024 Sandown & Haydock Saturday Tip: Magic Memories e/w @ 12/1
2.40 Haydock – Lancashire Oaks (Group 2)
In the hope that Haydock gets enough rain, Novus is the e/w pick here. Another Moore horse, this filly loves to get her toe in and she has course form in the book. She has been dismissed by the bookies who have priced her up at 16/1, probably because she ran poorly on rattling quick ground at Royal Ascot.
However, when she has had soft in the ground description the daughter of Dandy Man rarely runs a poor race. On good to soft, her sole start saw her run a massive race at Goodwood. However, on soft ground, her form figures read 11112.
The second came behind Royal Dress at Goodwood, who we backed at 33/1. That was a Listed race and the horse that beat her should have won a G3 at Epsom next time out. The big unknown for Novus is the 12f trip. The furthest distance she has tackled to date was 10F in a Newmarket G3 (sft) last October and that resulted in an easy 2L win.
She’s bred to stay 12f, hopefully the rain comes and she runs another big race at odds of 16/1.
2024 Sandown & Haydock Saturday Tip: Novus e/w @ 16/1 NAP
3.00 Sandown – Coral Distaff (Listed)
The ground could be an issue for quite a few of these on all known form, including a couple of the market leaders. Regal Jubilee has won on heavy and has run well on good to soft so she definitely won’t mind if it rains. I can’t really make a strong case for any of the outsiders so we’ll leave this race alone. No bet.
2024 Sandown & Haydock Saturday Tip: No bet
3.15 Haydock – Old Newton Cup Handicap (Class 2)
A monstrous pot of £150k for this 12f handicap with the winner taking home a cool £77k. The one I will take a chance on at a price is Mysterious Love for David Menuisier and Pierre-Louis Jamin. This filly has mostly been highly tried since hosing up on heavy ground in a Nottingham maiden in May of last year.
After that win she raced exclusively in Listed/G3 company and interestingly, her best effort probably came here. She only finished 7th of 10 in a G3 over 8f but she was just 4L behind the winner Heredia and 2L behind Novus, who we are backing in the Lancashire Oaks. She was also close enough to the likes of Purplepay (then rated 102), Roman Mist (105) and Potapova (104) so it wasn’t a bad effort at all.
This season, her last two runs have come in handicap company. She was beat 3.5L off 92 at Windsor and then she was only beat 2.75L for the win off the same mark at Epsom, both at 10f. I think she is well worth trying at this trip on the evidence of her Epsom effort and the handicapper has given her a chance by dropping her to 89. At odds of 33/1, a small e/w interest is advised.
2024 Sandown & Haydock Saturday Tip: Mysterious Love e/w @ 33/1 (5 places)
3.35 Sandown – Coral Eclipse (Group 1)
The big one. All eyes will be on 16.1 hands high City Of Troy. He handles soft ground, he hacked up in the Epsom Derby and he is 4/11 to add the Eclipse to his CV. The 10f trip is an unknown for the son of Justify but Aidan O’Brien thinks he has sufficient speed for this test. He’ll probably win but I’d have slight concerns about the drop in trip given how strongly he stayed on in the Derby.
The trip should be right up Dancing Gemini’s alley. He didn’t get home at Epsom but he stayed on powerfully in the French 2000 Guineas (8f) and he loves soft ground. It wouldn’t surprise me in the slightest if he puts it right up to the market leader.
Ghostwriter ran well on soft ground in the French Derby over 10f last time out. He’s a talented colt too but I think he may want better ground than this. Jayarebe is another solid performer but his best form is on good to firm. To be honest, I can’t make a solid case for any of the bigger priced horses so I’ll sit this one out. If I was having a bet, Dancing Gemini would be the one but he’s too short for the blog. No bet.
