2024 Saudi Arabian GP Betting Preview

It was a mixed bag for James Punt at the Bahrain GP last weekend. He is getting straight back on the horse though and he is hoping to get back into the black this week at the 2024 Saudi Arabian GP. His thoughts on the second race of the season, and what happened in Bahrain last week, are  below.

Race 1 – Team by Team Review

The first race of the season wasn’t exactly a cracker, but we did learn a few things which may help going forward.

Red Bull

No surprises at all. Still not dominant in qualifying, but their race pace is out of reach of the other teams. Perez may not be guaranteed for second place every time, but he has the tools to do so.

Their off track, internal power struggle is a distraction for the top flight managers, but the race team is just cracking on with the job. There are bonuses to be won. How it is affecting their number 1 driver may be another matter. More of that later.

Ferrari

Again, no great surprises at Ferrari. Good one lap pace means they are in the hunt for pole positions, but winning races will still be difficult. It was interesting to see Carlos Sainz take things into his own hands and attack his teammate for track position. Clearly, he is looking out for number 1.

He was helped by Leclerc having brake problems in the race, and this wasn’t a great performance by the team. The good news was that they do seem to have addressed their tyre wear problem, but that was still not enough to be anywhere near Verstappen in the race.

Ferrari are a clear second as it stands now. Sainz is confident that Ferrari can get closer to Red Bull. The rear limited Shakir track was not ideal for them, and the brake cooling problems were a nasty surprise. But they now head to more suitable tracks and they are aware of needing to consider the brake temperature in races.

Mercedes

Interesting. I am not sure how happy Mercedes will have been with their new cars’ race weekend debut. They are not yet in the position for poles or race wins, but it is a better starting point, something to develop.

The cars both suffered from overheating in the race, despite conditions being far from warm by Bahraini standards. It was just the wrong choice of engine cover and they have six different options to suit different conditions. So nothing serious, but a mistake was made. Very un-Mercedes like and a hint that they are still learning about how this new concept works.

Body Language

I was very interested in Lewis Hamilton’s body language post-race. He was very flat, like a driver who knows that this car isn’t going to be a championship winning chariot, maybe not even a race winner. Another winless season for Hamilton?

George Russell drove a better race, more aggressive, but he was hamstrung by the overheating and dropped back to finish fifth having been running second for a while. He will be hoping for better this weekend on a circuit where he is 2-0 vs. Hamilton and has scored two top five finishes for Mercedes.

McLaren

A bit like Mercedes, it was a case of glass half full for McLaren. I wasn’t that impressed. It isn’t good enough to say they ‘the track doesn’t suit our car’. Shakir is a bit bumpy, has an abrasive track surface and lacks really fast corners. But it is not a real outlier. It is a pretty bog standard F1 track.

McLaren also said that the cooler conditions didn’t suit them. So they have a car that needs everything to be just right for it to be fast. That isn’t a Championship contender.

Last year’s car was poor in slow corners, a rocket ship in fast ones. I would have thought McLaren would have designed a car with a bigger sweet spot, better in slower corners, but as it stands, they have a track dependant car that needs the right kind of weather. That suggests they will have their good days but will not be overly consistent.

Norris’ mistake in qualifying was disappointing and all things considered, I was underwhelmed. There is more to come, and they are in better shape than this time last year, but they have only hit the ground jogging. The next three tracks coming up are said to be more to McLaren’s liking, so we should expect better this weekend.

Aston Martin

They have a tougher looking 2024 than 2023. Last year Aston Martin hit the ground running while their nearest rivals stumbled. They were second best because Mercedes, McLaren and Ferrari had problems. Once the rest caught up, Aston Martin dropped to fifth place.

They have started this season in fifth place and I would expect McLaren to pull away as the season goes on. Fifth looks as good as it may get for the Aston.

Alonso is being distracted by the possibility of a drive at Mercedes, or even Red Bull for 2025. Stroll still lacks Officer material. He has had a team built around his needs to be World Champion. What a nonsensical idea.

He did pull off a decent recovery drive last weekend. Hit from behind by Hulkenberg, he dropped to last place, but a good race strategy allowed him to finish in tenth.

Stroll Pointless In Jeddah

Stroll is yet to score a point in Jeddah and it now appears that Alonso’s podium here last year required some ‘outside interference’. The President of the FIA, Mohammed Ben Sulayem, is alleged to have intervened during the 2023 Saudi Arabian GP to have a penalty imposed on Fernando Alonso removed.

The racing in 2024 may have been dull so far, but the Soap Opera off the track is keeping everyone entertained.

Outside of the top five, things are much more unpredictable. Who is sixth?

Visa RB

If anyone was expecting a 2023 Red Bull, they will have been disappointed. They look to have a better car, but not a regular points scorer.

The new management team have a driver problem on their hands. Both think that they are in with a realistic chance of getting a seat with Red Bull proper for next season. Yes, they are in the sister team and have good lines of communication with the Red Bull management (as it stands right now). Red Bull can have any driver they want, and there are plenty that are better than Ricciardo or Tsunoda. The fact that the two drivers tried to crash into each other after the race ended tells you everything. Tsunoda felt slighted by being told to move over to let the soft tyre shod Riccardo pass. He did, only to get stuck behind his teammate, who wasn’t any faster, soft tyre or not. At least an internal team driver spat can be entertaining.

Williams

I can hardly remember seeing a Williams all last weekend. Anonymous to say the least. Sargeant came last, no change there, Albon fifteenth, ditto. Absolutely nothing to get excited about.

The car suffered some overheating problems and it just looks like the car isn’t finished yet. They are behind schedule development wise, not as bad as McLaren last year, but they are like a sprinter turning up to the blocks with only one shoe on. Once they get the second shoe on, we will know where they stand.

Haas

The team expected to be bringing up the rear actually had a relatively good season opener. Hulkenberg reached Q3, as he did in 2023, but they have made real progress in terms of their race pace.

Hulkenberg suffered a damaged front wing on the first lap which ruined his race and he ended up coming home sixteenth. Magnussen at least was able to improve on his grid position, starting fifteenth and finishing twelfth. In a race with no retirements, that is a very positive step for Haas.

Slippy Car

The car was the fastest through the speed trap, so they have a slippy car that will like tracks with a lot of straights, much like last year’s Williams. It still lacks the downforce to be properly midfield competitive, but they should score more points than last season.

Scoring some soon would be great as they are likely to be out developed once again. This Jeddah track may well be a good one for them and has been in the past.

Strike F1

A bit of a letdown? The car lacked one lap pace but their race pace was better. Bottas damaged his endplate on the first lap and that hurt his race pace. He then had a 50+ second pitstop after a wheel nut problem.

Zhou ultimately cost us the race day group bet, finishing ahead of Magnussen. Zhou had benefitted from a good race strategy, using the undercut on both his stops to make a big jump up the leaderboard.

That makes it hard to judge where the car really is on race pace. Zhou was slower than the closing Haas near the end of race, but once Magnussen got close, he got stuck.

Alpine

Every bit the clown show that was expected. The car is the slowest on the grid, overweight and far from ready for the season. A works team turning up with a poor car that is well behind schedule.

It also seems that the rats are fleeing the sinking ship. The team’s technical director Matt Harman and aerodynamics leader Dirk de Beer have both resigned. Not sacked, resigned. They can see the writing is on the wall for this team.

Alpine’s remaining management has been reshuffled. The departing duo will be replaced by a promoted trio of new technical bosses – Joe Burnell, David Wheater and Ciaron Pilbeam. Another management reshuffle at Alpine, well, the others have gone SO well.

Reliability and Racing

We had a 100% finishing rate in the first race of the season. I cannot remember that happening before. From a punters point of view total reliability can be a bit of a problem.

It is nice to back a driver and not have to worry that reliability could cost you, but it means the finishing order can get very stale and predictable. That is already the case at the front. If the midfield is then set, things will get deadly dull.

It also seems that this generation of cars are making driving close to the one in front, very hard. Get too close, and the dirty air means the following cars tyres go off. Drop back to manage the tyres and you can’t overtake.

Red Bull Race Procession

We saw the field closely bunched in qualifying, but in the race? Red Bull ran off and the rest had a procession. Only mechanical niggles, pit stops or drivers crashing into each other was mixing things up to a very limited degree.

I was watching the time gaps very carefully during the race, and it was clear that if you had two closely matched cars, the one in front just had to not make any mistakes to stay ahead.

There is a big potential dullness problem looming, if indeed it is not already here. Qualifying can be fun and competitive, but the races? It’s not looking good.

The 2024 Saudi Arabian GP – Preview

The roadshow arrives in Jeddah this weekend for the 2024 Saudia Arabian GP. This will be only the fourth Saudi Arabian GP and we have seen a different winner each year so far.

The circuit is a street circuit, a fast street circuit, which has twenty seven corners, but many of these are more like curves. It has a reasonable flow to it but there are two hairpins at either end of the sinuous circuit and a chicane at the end of the start finishing straight.

Fast And Flowing

That is three big braking events but the majority of the lap is quite fast and flowing. It is a million miles away from street circuits like Monaco or Singapore and there is no abundance of the ninety degree corners which we get in Baku.

Only Monza sees faster laps so it is a real power circuit, which can bite if the driver hits the wall. We have seen some big impacts in the past and it isn’t the safest of circuits.

2024 Saudi Arabian GP: Driver/Team Records

Verstappen is the leading points scorer, having two second places and a win. Perez and Hamilton are the other two winners. Hamilton has finished behind George Russell for their two races as teammates.

Alonso was third last year, after escaping a 10 second penalty for the car being worked on, before the penalty had been served.

Alpine have been regular points scorers here, but that should change. Haas have also gone well here, two points finishes for Magnussen, both in the last two years and a twelfth for Hulkenberg last year.

Sainz and Leclerc have always finished in the top 8 and they had a double podium finish in 2022. Red Bull have racked up the most points and are expected to continue the trend.

The circuit has had a quite high attrition rate (3.67 DNFs per race), with accidents and collisions playing a big part. The lay out has been modified to make it a little safer, but as is the case with all street circuits, there is not much room for error.

Who will the track suit?

Haas and Ferrari have gone well here before. That tells us power is important, and tyre wear is not a big issue. It is a very different proposition to Bahrain. McLaren are optimistic that it will suit their car much better than Bahrain and it should. Haas must have a reasonable chance of a point or two, if we get some attrition.

Looking at who was hitting the top speeds in Bahrain, we have Hulkenberg and Magnussen first and third through the speed trap, with Sainz second. Albon was fourth and then there was a 4 KM/H drop to the two Visa RB’s and Lance Stroll.

Alpine Slowest

The slowest were the two Alpines, but the fact that Hulkenberg was at or near the top of any of the speed points does seem to bode well for Haas’ chances. The Alpine cars are heavy, slow, lack traction and have the weakest power unit and they should be bringing up the rear again.

Bahrain and Saudi Arabia have run back to back for the last two years and there hasn’t been any pattern of any great shifts in form. I do expect some improvement for McLaren, but by how much we shall have to wait and see. Red Bull will still be the team to beat, but they may be more vulnerable in qualifying.

The Weather Forecast

With McLaren wanting warmer weather, and Mercedes and Ferrari perhaps wanting cooler conditions, it is worthwhile checking.

There is zero chance of rain across the three days. Remember, this is a Thursday start and a Saturday race. The race is another night race and we should still see air temperatures in the low 20s, but there will be a noticeable breeze. Qualifying on Friday will be much the same.

2024 Saudia Arabian GP Ante Post Selections

We drew a blank with the ante post bets last weekend. The Visa RBs were too slow and Bottas’ fate was sealed with an early race knock and confirmed by a disastrous pit stop.

We have learned that we have a pretty clear top five. Red Bull, Ferrari, Mercedes, McLaren and Aston Martin. Given another 100% finishing rate those five teams should fill the point paying places.

However, the attrition rate here tends to come from accidents, so we should see a couple of retirements.

Max Verstappen is the 1.25 favourite which is fair enough. So long as his head has not been turned by the Red Bull civil war, he wins. But his head is going to get turned at some point.

Will the Red Bull wars end Verstappen’s reign?

This is not about Christian Horner’s alleged behaviour, it is about who controls Red Bull, and not just the F1 team. It seems like the Austrian side of the business is attempting a coup, but it is the Thai side of the business who is the 52% shareholder.

It was interesting that the Thai owner was trackside in Bahrain last weekend. I can’t remember seeing him at many races, but he was there, beside Horner, clearly on one side of the divide.

On the other side, vigorously stirring the pot, was none other than Max’s father, Jos. His meetings with Mercedes have the rumour mill spinning like a turbo. Max is off to Mercedes and taking Newey with him.

The rumour two weeks ago was that Newey was off to Ferrari to make Lewis Hamilton champion. All total speculation of course, but it is clear that Jos Verstappen is up to his neck in trying to wreck the current set up.

Title At Verstappen’s Mercy

Max Verstappen finds himself sitting in the best car on the grid and with title number four at his mercy. Having his father trying to smash up Red Bull, for what reason I do not know, but it’s likely to be about money, is an impossible situation for Max.

Does he tell Verstappen Snr. to F**k off and ride the magic carpet to the 2024 title (and very probably the 2025 one) with the current Red Bull set up. Or does he side with Dad and oversee the demolition of the setup which brought him this opportunity?

He is between the proverbial rock and a hard place. He may be hoping that the Austrians pull off the coup, sack Horner, and he can stay put. But what if the likes of Newey are tied to Horner, and they go with him?

Tough Choices For Max

Verstappen would not be human if his attention was less on his racing, and more on his loyalties. If he takes sides, and he will have to, he is either falling out with his father, or the team that have made him a three time world champion.

A racing driver wants to be in the best team with the best car, and Max is. But that has been put in doubt thanks to his father taking part in a coup to over throw the management of the F1 team, and the ownership of the Red Bull empire.

This looks like a lose- lose situation for everyone, other than a few Austrians trying to become even richer than they already are.

Big Distraction

Verstappen will be asked about what is going on at every press conference, every interview and he will get sick of it. Jos Verstappen will not be at the race this weekend, but that isn’t going to turn the heat down. Clearly, the situation has become more than just a distraction. It is now getting to the point that it may affect his performance.

Is it now time to think about opposing Verstappen? Well, the situation is only making life harder for him. No doubt, Sergio Perez is sitting there, thinking…. ‘this is interesting’. Now we saw what happened to Perez when he thought he was in with a chance last year, but this situation will be putting a smile on Perez’ face.

Circuit To Suit Perez

Perez does like a street circuit and while his win here was as much to do with Verstappen having a drive shaft failure in Q2, he is at his best between the walls.

So long as Verstappen can just keep focused on the job at hand, he wins, but I’ll have a bet on Perez. His odds are good enough for an e/w bet.

He is in a car that should be able to deliver him another top 2 place, and if Verstappen is distracted enough to maybe hit a wall at some stage, you never know.

2024 Saudi Arabian GP Tip: 1 point e/w Sergio Perez to win @ 13.00 with Betfair, Pokerstars

The second ante-post selection has to be on a Haas driver to score. It looks like they have made good progress on addressing their tyre degradation problem. Their race pace held up in Bahrain, which is a tough a test of tyres. This rack is a lot easier on the rubber.

That they showed very good straight line speed is another promising sign. The car is unlikely to be faster than the big five, but it may be close and if we do get a retirement or two, Haas seem to have as good a claim as any of the second division teams.

Magnussen Goes Well Here

Nico Hulkenberg is the better qualifier between the two drivers, but that doesn’t always mean he scores the points. Last year, Hulkenberg qualified eleventh, was promoted to tenth after Leclerc’s grid penalty, but finished twelfth. Magnussen qualified thirteenth and finished tenth.

In 2022 Magnussen qualified tenth and finished ninth, so he knows his way round the track and will be looking forward to returning.

Magnussen has shown some decent form on street circuits, having scored in Russia (x4), Singapore (x3) Saudi Arabia (x2), Monaco (x2) and Azerbaijan (x1). That is 30% of his points scoring races being on street circuits.

2024 Saudi Arabian GP Tip: 1 point Kevin Magnussen to finish in the points @ 4.00 generally available

There will be updates for qualifying and race day and hopefully I can get them ready a little quicker this weekend.

-JamesPunt