2024 Singapore GP Raceday Preview

We were out of luck in qualifying but these things happen. James Punt rarely stays out of form for long, check out his 2024 Singapore GP Raceday update and tips below.

2024 Singapore GP Raceday Update

It is fair to say that this has been a challenging Singapore GP weekend so far. McLaren and Sauber excepted, it has been very hard to get a grip on the various cars’ performance. Cars are dropping in and out of their sweet spots all weekend and there has been a fair amount of head scratching.

The grid is now set and we are racing on a track on which making up for mistakes and mishaps will be difficult, but there is the chance that the lesser spotted 2024 safety car will make an appearance to potentially mix things up a little.

Also, judging by what we have seen so far, any slight change in track conditions, whether that be temperature or simple evolution, could see cars dropping in and out of their sweet spot during the race. Expect much ‘I have no grip on these tyres’ radio calls.

2024 Singapore GP Raceday: Team-by-Team Outlook

McLaren 

At least you can rely on McLaren to be competitive here, there and everywhere. Norris was second in FP1 and has topped every session since. He didn’t even have to wring the cars neck to get pole yesterday, just putting in a solid, safe lap to be a couple of tenths faster than the next man.

Piastri was the weakest link at McLaren. He qualified fifth and he has not been on the same pace as Norris all weekend. It is only his second visit here, but he should have done better. At least we will be spared the risk of he and Norris tripping over each other as happened at Monza.

Fastest car

This is Norris’ race to lose. He has the fastest car and starts on pole. The pole sitter has won five of the eight races here in the turbo hybrid era, but only two of the last five, so it is not a given that he wins. One race has been won from 5th, some hope for Piastri, one from third and one from second.

The biggest threat to Norris is arguably himself, or his lack of prowess off the starting line. He has had five previous pole positions and converted just one into a race win, in the Dutch GP this year.

However, he still kept up his record of losing the lead of the race on the first lap when he has been on pole in 2024. Overall, the pole sitter has had a tough time in 2024, with just seven conversions from pole to win, and only one of the last nine, which is extraordinary.

Red Bull 

Verstappen was very happy to be in second place. His car was very poor on Friday but Red Bull are very good at sorting things out between FP2 and FP3, but I do not think Verstappen expected to be any better than fourth or fifth.

Verstappen has not won any of the last seven races, and has only had two podiums. He has never won in Singapore, but he has the chance to jump Norris at the start, again, and on a street circuit, that could be enough. He still has a big lead over Norris in the championship and he can afford to be a bit more muscular at the start of the race.

Perez has had his good weekend at Baku and is back being slow again. At least he made it out of Q1.

Mercedes 

The ultimate diva car decided to turn up in qualifying. Hamilton had been saying that Friday was his worst day in F1 for years, but suddenly, the car was great, it ‘came alive’ and they locked out the second row. The question now is, will it turn up for the race?

George Russell was complaining that the car was changing from one set of tyres to another and clearly this car’s sweet spot is tiny. Looking at their race pace over the season, they have been stronger on Sundays than on Saturdays, so they could be able to pressure the top two.

Haas 

Yes, the Haas was the fourth fastest car in qualifying (Hulkenberg’s time was quicker than Charles Leclerc’s deleted time). I was not expecting much from them this weekend, Magnussen’s fourteenth was more in line with my thoughts, but Hulkenberg has pulled off these kind of qualifying performances before.

This year’s car is a much better race car and he is in a very good position to score more points, and points they need to keep a gap to the improving Williams. Hulkenberg started Silverstone from sixth and finished sixth. That would be the top end of expectations.

Aston Martin

Alonso has been flattered by the Ferrari failure, but he has been around the 9th – 11th kind of pace in practice. No great surprise as that is where he usually is. Lance Stroll, the man an entire multi-million dollar F1 team is being built for, was seventeenth. A top 8 finish in a clean race might be the limit for Alonso, but with some attrition, you never know.

Visa RB 

A good weekend for Tsunoda and a career ending one for Ricciardo. Time is up for the underperforming Aussie. Tsunoda has failed to finish his first two races here and he has failed to finish in the last two races this season. Could it be the worst possible double hattrick? He has struggled to improve on his grid position over a race distance and he has a few faster cars behind him.

Ferrari 

What a disaster. From looking like potential pole sitters and race winners on Friday, they have locked out the fifth row. Sainz had a bizarre crash in Q3, losing control of the car when making room for another car to pass. Leclerc was only seventh fastest but even that lap didn’t count as it was deleted for exceeding track limits.

Their car is not usually that sensitive to changing track conditions, but something went AWOL from Friday to Saturday, and that is now locked in for the race. They just couldn’t get the tyres up to temperature in qualifying and paid the price. This is a hard track on which to make progress, but maybe sixth place is doable?

Williams 

If Ferrari had a disaster, Williams were just disappointing. They had Q3 pace, but lost out to the likes of Tsunoda, Hulkenberg and Alonso. Both drivers struggled with tyre warm up.

Our bet on Colapinto to out qualify Albon lost out by 0.007 seconds, which sort of sums up this weekend’s punting. We have backed Williams for a double points finish, and that will be a lot more difficult from outside the top 10 on the grid, but fingers crossed.

Alpine 

Not a feature this weekend and Ocon did well to reach fifteenth. He will be hoping that his run of three DNFs in Singapore comes to an end.

Sauber 

Reassuringly last again. At least some things are certain.

Summary

There is one outstanding feature when looking at this race. The start. We know that Norris has struggled with the starts when on pole. That he made a good start from way down the grid in Baku means not a jot. It is in his head. He knows how the movie goes, that by the end of the first lap he will be looking at the rear wing of another car.

The run to the first corner here is not long, which should help him, but Verstappen also knows the script and also that if they crash, it suits him fine, especially with Leclerc looking to be out of the big points today. Do not be surprised to see Verstappen being quite aggressive if he gets a good launch.

Lead Key

Whoever gets the lead will be in a strong position. There are few overtaking opportunities and the car in front gets to drive in clean air, the car behind will be able to get close, but will start to slide about in the dirty air and then the tyres start to go off and a downward spiral kicks in.

If Norris bucks the trend and keeps the lead at the end of lap 1, he is in a very good position. He’s in the fastest car, which is good at the end of stints, having been able to look after their tyres that much better. If Verstappen gets the lead, he can make it very difficult for Norris. On these kind of fiddly street tracks, a slower car can win, if it can find a way to get the lead.

Safety Car

The other thing to consider, is the safety car. We haven’t seen one for a while, not even for the big crash at the end of the Azerbaijan GP. But it is pretty much a given that we get one here.

That means the strategists have to be able to think on their feet. It means cars out of position, or further down the field, will run for as long as possible, waiting for an opportunity for a cheap pitstop under the safety car. If it comes after the cars in front have already pitted, it is possible to pick up a chunk of time.

So much so that, Renault orchestrated a safety car here in 2008, getting Nelson Piquet junior to crash, allowing Alonso to pit and take the lead, and win the race. I doubt we will get a ‘fixed’ safety car, but they are naturally occurring most years in Singapore.

Weather Watch

The weather looks set to be dry, just a 5% chance of rain, but it will be humid and around 33 degrees. This race tends to be the longest on the calendar, in terms of how long it lasts. We have seen it ‘timed out’ before, the race ended before all the laps had been run.

There is a two hour limit and if you get safety cars or red flags, it can overrun. In a hot and humid environment, driving a Formula 1 for two hours is very tough and fatigue can cause mistakes and accidents. This race is not over, till it’s over.

2024 Singapore GP Raceday Bets

It has been a strange weekend so far, and I am not minded to get too heavily involved in today’s race. Just the three, small stakes bets for me today.

Lando Norris is the 1.65 favourite, Verstappen 5.00, Hamilton 8.5, Piastri 13.00, and Russell 21.00.

The odds on Norris look about right, and do not offer much value. He isn’t great from pole and the pole sitter has not been winning much lately. But it is a street circuit and the pole sitter should have a decent advantage.

Verstappen has overperformed to get second place. His car is not the quickest, but he is not without a chance here. He has never won here before and to do it without the best car would be ironic.

Mercedes Interesting

The two Mercedes have got the hard bit of the weekend out of the way and ended up a lot better off than they had expected. They have won three races in 2024.

They were the beneficiaries of the Norris – Verstappen collision in Austria, won a race that McLaren lost at Silverstone and won in Belgium with two drivers. Russell crossed the line in first, but Hamilton won the race when Russell was DQ’d.

Three wins flatters them. In reality, an off the top of the head strategy for Russell in Belgium was their high point, rather than out and out performance. If they are to win today, they need a bit of luck, and they could get it on a street circuit.

Value

Purely on value grounds, I will have a small play on George Russell. At 21.00 he looks to be generously priced. He has yet to score a point here from three races but he has shown that he is prepared to make his own calls and think outside the box, and that may pay dividends if we get a bit of a mixed up race.

A few firms are offering three places each way, and a shorter price, but good enough for a small speculative bet. He might just luck into another podium finish, and we have seen the leaders crash here in the past.

2024 Singapore GP Raceday Tip: 0.5 point e/w George Russell to win @ 18.00 with Betfair, Pokerstars

I have to have a bet on the first lap leader. Norris has form for losing the first lap lead and Verstappen will not miss any chance to take advantage of any wheel spin on the McLaren.

2024 Singapore GP Raceday Tip: 0.5 point Verstappen to be leader after the first lap (Driver from second) @ 4.50 with Ladbrokes

The recent races in 2024 have been remarkable for the lack of drivers not classified. Across the last eight races, there have been just six not classifieds in total.

The average in Singapore since 2014 is 4.125, with a low of one in 2018 and a high of eight in 2017. This may be one race where backing a driver to DNF makes some sense. Albon and Tsunoda are the leading drivers on the Not Classified table with three each.

At this track, since 2014, Hulkenberg, Alonso and Ocon have had three each, Ocon the last three in a row, and Tsunoda is two from two.

2024 Singapore GP Raceday Tip: 0.5 point Yuki Tsunoda to be NOT classified @ 4.50 with Ladbrokes

It will be four weeks before the next race. Lots of time for the teams to upgrade their cars for the final, frantic, six race finale.

-JamesPunt