2024 Spanish GP Outright Betting Preview – JP
2024 Spanish GP Outright Betting Preview
Now, it is time for James Punt’s 2024 Spanish GP outright betting preview. It wasn’t straightforward for us in Canada, but we managed to get something back on raceday. Fingers crossed we can get back on the gravy train in Catalunya.
2024 Spanish GP
Betting wise, the Canadian GP was a little frustrating. The raceday bets brought us closer to breaking even, but we hit the post with the Norris to win bet. Overall, it was a 0.90 point loss, leaving the seasons running total at 16.03 points.
The race itself was the best of the season, but that is what you can get with a race affected by rain showers and safety cars. It wasn’t the best form guide for what is to come, but that is what we are going to get this weekend at the 2024 Spanish GP, so long as the rain stays away.
The Circuit de Barcelona-Catalunya gets some stick for producing boring races, but its real function is as a test track. It has a good mix of long straights, fast corners, medium speed corners, a couple of slower corners, long duration corners, right handers and left handers.
Proper Test
It is a great test of the cars’ aerodynamic performance and in a nutshell is a real car track, and a very good guide for the European season that lies ahead. After a run of races on atypical tracks, we now have a run of seven races on traditional, purpose built racetracks.
The old saying is that if you have a good car at Barcelona, you have a good car everywhere. With so many street circuits these days, that is not quite the case anymore, but it will give us a very clear picture of what the pecking order is after all the upgrades that have been brought by the various teams.
Team-by-Team
Red Bull
Definitely feeling the heat of the competition now. Verstappen got the win in Canada, but he needed the help of the safety car to do so. The Mercedes was at least the equal fastest car in qualifying and the fastest in the dry part of the race, the McLaren was the faster car in the wet part of the race.
Red Bull will be relieved to be back racing on ‘proper’ racetracks again. No more worrying about bumpy track surfaces or kerb riding. Their car’s great aerodynamic qualities will be to the fore and I suspect we shall see better performances in the coming weeks, including this one.
The Red Bulls’ strength is producing efficient downforce in medium and high speed corners, combined with good straight line speed. In that respect, this track is ideal.
Verstappen has won three Spanish GPs and been on the podium in seven of his nine races here. Sergio Perez has just the one podium, but another seven top 10’s.
Out Developed
Red Bull are being caught by their rivals and it seems they are being out developed. Perhaps they are diverting resources to the 2026 project, having felt confident that they had this season in the bag? They are said to be considering developing a new ‘flexi’ front wing along the same lines as McLaren and Mercedes. They would rather the FIA declared these new wings to be illegal, but so far, there has been nothing said.
This is the acid test for Red Bull’s season ahead. If they find they are still fighting with McLaren, Ferrari and Mercedes at the end of this weekend, we have a Championship battle on our hands.
Win with a bit in hand, they will have enough to convert their current forty nine point lead into another Constructors’ Championship and Verstappen’s fifty six point lead into a fourth World Drivers’ Championship.
McLaren
Lando Norris has got to within seven points of Charles Leclerc after his runner up finish in Montreal. That was his fifth podium from the first nine races and over the last five Grand Prix, he has picked up 91 points, bettered only by Verstappen’s 101. Over those last five races, not including sprints, McLaren have scored 137 points, more than any other team. Red Bull have 132 and Ferrari 106.
McLaren have a good all round car now, and this track should suit them well. Upgrades to the car have very much improved their slow corner speed, which was the car’s big weakness.
There is rightly some speculation that the car’s high speed performance, which was its biggest strength, may have been compromised by the fix for the slow speed stuff. Not so, say McLaren. Piastri says that others have caught up in high speed performance, but that they are still going to be right in the mix.
No Pole So Far
Neither driver has picked up a pole position so far, but Norris has had six second row starts and Piastri two front row starts from his last three. Their race pace is stronger as it does seem to take them a little longer to bring the tyres in, but the upside to that is that they then get more useful mileage on them before degradation becomes a problem.
McLaren will be in the hunt for the win, and a podium finish the bare minimum. Neither driver has a track record to write home about, but this is a car track more than a driver’s track, and they now have the car to compete.
The team will have some upgrades this weekend. It won’t be a major upgrades, but it should be enough to add a bit more performance to the car.
Ferrari
It will be interesting to see how Ferrari react to their crushing disappointment in Montreal. Neither car made it into Q3 and their race pace was equally poor.
Not a single point scored, another poor race, and the questions will start, the pressure ramps up and before you know it, knives will be sharpened. Ferrari is Ferrari. Fredrick Vasseur has to get the team back on track ASAP or his honeymoon period is over.
The team blamed the cool/wet conditions in Montreal for their lack of performance. Not being able to get the front tyres up to temperature was given as the cause. That should not be a problem here in Barcelona, but what if we get more, cool or wet races in this European swing? They are losing their second best car tag to McLaren and it will be interesting to see how the team performs with the pressure ramped up.
Consistent Sainz
Carlos Sainz has a very consistent point scoring record on home soil, with nine consecutive point scoring finishes, but he has never been on the podium. Ditto for Leclerc, but his record is poor with only one point scoring place from his last four starts in Spain.
A chance for Sainz to get one over on Leclerc? Perhaps, but Sainz is being distracted by trying to sort out a drive for 2025 and beyond. There are rumours that Sainz will announce his future plans this weekend. Williams or Sauber-Audi are the options.
That may clear his mind for the rest of the season, but it will be a bit of a distraction this weekend, as will being at a home race.
Mercedes
The team to watch this weekend. Toto Wolff has said that they have now found the missing part of the jigsaw. They now have a full understanding of the car and are able to have confidence in terms of setups correlating from simulation to the track.
The sweet spot is bigger, driver confidence higher and there is finally a lot of optimism in the team. George Russell bagged the pole position in Montreal and they got a 3-4 finish, their best of the season.
Mercedes dominated in Barcelona from the start of the turbo hybrid era, winning seven of the last ten races and having four 1-2 finishes. Last year they had their only double podium of the season.
George Russell has finished third here for the last two years, even in two sub optimal cars. The team will have more new parts on the car once again, but some questions have been asked about the legality of their (and others) new ‘flexible’ front wing. As of yet, there has been no comment from the FIA.
Promising
It looks promising for George Russell, if he can cut out the mistakes. As for Hamilton, he is still under the impression that the team are favouring Russell, which of course they are. Hamilton chose to leave the team, what did he expect?
Hamilton has racked up six wins at Barcelona and only missed the podium twice in the last ten years. It will be interesting to see if Hamilton can get his mojo back now that he has a competitive car, or will Russell be given enough preferential treatment by the team to come out on top again. Russell is 8-1 in qualifying and 7-2 in the Grand Prix races.
Track Temperature Worries
The team’s designer, James Allison, expects the car to be competitive in Barcelona, but tempered that by saying that the hotter track surface will be against them, and the wider range of corners will be more challenging.
He added that there will be more developments on the car as they attempt to out develop the opposition on a race by race basis. At least they are now adding performance to the car, rather than throwing upgrades on a car they didn’t understand.
The Mercedes was fully competitive in Montreal, which is not a great form guide as a track. Barcelona is. If they are up there again, in the podium battle, maybe a race win, then they are back. However, many thought that after their 2-3 finish here last year.
Aston Martin
Picking up fourteen points in Canada stopped the rot at Aston Martin. It was only their third double points finish of the season, but they were flattered by the Ferrari no show, and the Perez DNF.
In my book, they didn’t really make any progress in Montreal but they took advantage of better cars not scoring. They are the fifth best team on the grid and will still be vulnerable to the likes of a Visa RB or an Alpine getting ahead of one, or both Astons.
Unfair Criticism?
Team boss Mike Krack says the team are being unfairly criticised for this year’s performance, based on how well they started 2023. F1 is a hard school and given the money spent on the team and their facilities, I would say that the criticism is warranted.
They are ‘only’ a customer team, but so are McLaren. Aston Martin had a good race here last year with Stroll finishing sixth and Alonso seventh, but they had already scored five podiums, and this race was actually the start of their slide back into the pack. A repeat of that double points finish would be a surprise.
Visa RB
Riccardo got his first Grand Prix top ten finish of the season in Canada. He qualified in an impressive fifth place and finished eighth. He was another to take advantage of the Ferrari flop and Perez not finishing the race or making it out of Q1.
That said, the team have scored points in six of the last seven races, and that isn’t down to luck. Tsunoda has only failed to reach Q3 in two races in 2024 and Ricciardo has done it in two of the last three.
Their race pace struggles to match their qualifying pace, but they have to be considered for points in every race now, especially Tsunoda.
Haas
Pointless from the last four Grand Prix. That begs the question, are Haas just being Haas? Scoring in the early races, before being out developed and slipping down the order? Maybe, but they have had three eleventh place finishes and two fourths from the last four, so they have still been knocking on the door.
Magnussen’s qualifying performances leave him hard to fancy, but Hulkenberg remains in a position for minor points. The team have only scored one point here in the last five years, and the competition for the minor points remains fierce. They are getting harder to fancy.
Alpine
Despite all the nonsense at Alpine with team members leaving in droves, Ocon not having his contract renewed, drivers hating each other and team orders favouring Gasly, they got a double points finish in Canada.
They are just two points off Haas, who are starting to get squeezed out of the point scoring positions, and Alpine have seventh place in their sights. That is a poor ambition for a works team, but from the runt of the 2024 litter, the Alpine is now a contender for minor points. Of course, like Aston Martin, Alpine were flattered by the disappointing Ferrari’s and Perez’ DNF.
Car Too Heavy
Part of the problem is that the car remains overweight, and one chassis is heavier than the other. Ocon blamed part of his qualifying woes in Montreal on the fact that he was driving the heavier car. He says that the team will rotate the chassis between the two drivers, but that he has had the heavy car in the last three races.
Sadly, the team do not have a big sticker on the heavy car saying, ‘this is the chonky one’. It will be important to try and find out who is lumbered with the heavy car as it is costing a tenth of a second, which could be crucial for a qualifying H2H bet.
Ocon On Way Out
The team are having to manage a very difficult driver situation. Ocon is on his way out, that much we know. The team want Gasly to stay for continuity purposes, but Gasly may jump ship, if he gets a better offer.
The temptation must be to butter Gasly up by giving him preferential treatment, but the team deny this will be the case. Ocon was very unhappy at having to give up his ninth place to Gasly in Montreal, and an angry Ocon is a dangerous Ocon, in a bad way.
This weekend rewards the car’s qualities over driver ability. Alpine have improved and have had a double points finish here for the last two years. However, they are likely to need attrition from the better cars if they are to score points for the third race in a row. Both drivers have decent track record, both recording four points finishes in their careers.
Williams
Followed up their first points of the season in Monaco with a double DNF in Montreal. That was disappointing as Albon qualified tenth, Sargeant thirteenth and they looked set for more points. Sargeant crashed out, again, while Albon was taken out by a spinning Carlos Sainz.
Like Alpine, Williams are handicapped by having a heavy car. Albon has said that the team are not really developing the car, but just trying to knock off as much weight as possible. There is little point spending scarce resources on new developments, only to stick them on an overweight car. Pick the low hanging fruit first.
Obviously, progress is being made but Sargeant is too slow, and costing the team in terms of repairs. Albon has the talent to score, but Barcelona is a real car track and that will make things difficult for them.
Kick Sauber
Zhou finished ninth here last year, but he will need a miracle to get close to that this year. He is yet to make it out of Q1 all season, and Bottas hasn’t managed that in the last four races. The car has made no progress and they are being out developed by everyone else, even Williams and Haas. Most likely to remain the only pointless team after the race.
The Weather Forecast
The showery nature of the Canadian GP weekend made for an unpredictable one, but I would prefer to see a nice, dry boring weather weekend this time.
Friday – Dry and sunny, 26 degrees, light breeze.
Saturday – Partly cloudy, 26 degrees, 25% chance of showers in the morning, dropping to 6% in the afternoon for qualifying. Light breeze.
Sunday – The afternoon will be partly cloudy, 25 degrees, light breeze. There is a chance of some light showers in the area.
Overall, the conditions look to be stable for all three days, and the chance of any rain is said to be small.
Summary
As this circuit is a great test track, this is a school week. The teams’ form has been a bit in and out given the nature of the tracks on which we have seen the races at recently. This track is a proper yardstick.
With weather looking settled, there will be no excuses. The teams and Pirelli all know what to expect. All the drivers know the track better than most. The simulators have plenty of past data to draw upon and everyone should be able to hit the ground running, spending the weekend fine tuning the cars for Sunday’s race.
As a real ‘car’ track, this race should be won by whomever has the best car. That should be Red Bull. That is the steer being given by their opponents, but they would say that. Their three rivals, Ferrari, McLaren and now Mercedes, have all made progress, while Red Bull have not. That comfortable margin they had in hand in the first five races has gone. There are mitigating factors.
Excuses For Red Bull?
Miami has strange tarmac which mixed things up, as did the safety car which promoted Norris to race leader, and eventual winner. Imola was another bumpy track which didn’t suit the Red Bull so well. Monaco was never going to suit Red Bull and it is an outlier track. Montreal had very mixed weather conditions, is another outlier track, and was mixed up by rain and safety cars.
Now, back to a ‘normal’, classical F1 track, with settled and dry conditions, we are back to pure performance.
Max Verstappen is at the top of his game and that is worth a few tenths, even on a car track. He will be hard to beat, unless the others bring potent upgrades, of which we haven’t been told about. Perez may be a slightly better totem of where the car is.
If so, we might have more of a race than many expect. That said, Perez has a very fragile confidence level, and it is very low at the minute. Expect Verstappen to be the man to beat, at odds of 1.50.
Biggest Threat?
It is harder to say who his biggest threat will be. McLaren have already had a race win, Ferrari two. Mercedes got pole in Montreal and have set the last three fastest laps.
Lando Norris is the main man at McLaren. Piastri was said to be destroying him at times in 2023, nonsense of course, but Norris is better on the tyres, is better with racecraft. Piastri is still learning, but his one lap pace is closer to Norris. If McLaren were to win, Norris is more likely to be the one to do it.
At Ferrari, Charles Leclerc has reasserted himself as the team leader after a poor start to the season. He has out qualified Sainz in the last five Grand Prix. That said, it is Sainz who has been the lead Ferrari here for the last two years.
Russell Favoured By Mercedes
Merecedes are favouring George Russell. That is not the view of the team, but of Lewis Hamilton. I fear, if that is what he thinks, it will be an easy excuse for any under par performance. He said his own performance in Canada was terrible, but that the car was great.
If he can dispel any thoughts that the team are out to get him, he is perfectly capable of contending. However Russell has been the better driver all season, despite being a bit mistake prone.
The shortlist for possible race winners looks like Verstappen (1.50), Norris (7.00), Leclerc (13.00 win only) and Russell (26.00).
The question is, are the other three really racing for second place only? The answer to that is, very much so, yes, but their chances have improved markedly since the various teams have upgraded their cars. Red Bull do appear to have lost ground and not all of that can be put down to bumpy tracks, or big kerbs. Are the ‘flexi’ front wings, and Red Bull’s lack of one, making the difference?
I am happy to take a more cautious approach this weekend. We got burned with the ante post bets in Canada and it would be good to get back on track with some less speculative bets come Sunday. But I’ll have a small each way bet on George Russell.
Good Pace
The Mercedes showed good pace in Canada. Russell set the fastest time in qualifying (in Q2) and showed very strong race pace when it was dry, and they set the fastest lap (for the third race in a row).
They now return to a track on which they have enjoyed a lot of success, where they had their best result of last season, and one on which both drivers know well. Hopefully that track knowledge will help minimise any mistakes by Russell.
They will have further upgrades (as will others) to improve performance and for the first time in a while, Mercedes can go into a race thinking they have some sort of realistic chance of winning on merit. It is speculative, but the odds are big enough to take an interest in, to small stakes.
2024 Spanish GP Tip: 0.5 point e/w George Russell to win the Spanish GP @ 26.00 with BET365, Skybet
The final bet at this stage is the old faithful, Yuki Tsunoda to finish in the points. We lost this one in Montreal, but he was in line for his sixth top ten finish of the season before a mistake spun him round and down to fourteenth place.
He is a regular in Q3 and has finished in the points in five of the last seven Grand Prix. That Ricciardo was doing well in Canada tells us that the car is competitive in the upper midfield and more points are realistic.
