2024 Spanish GP Qualifying Preview & Tips – JP
2024 Spanish GP Qualifying Preview
Now, it is time for James Punt’s 2024 Spanish GP qualifying preview. James has already posted an outright preview, you can read that here.
2024 Spanish GP Qualifying Update
This looks like being the closest qualifying session of the season, with four teams in the frame for pole position. This is a car track and what we have seen bodes well for the European swing. Even on a car track, the driver plays a part, especially when it is as close as it is. No mistakes can be made. We saw errors from Hamilton and Piastri which ruined their flying lap.
Team-by-Team
Red Bull
Verstappen was just 0.074 off the fastest time in FP3. He was unhappy with the balance of the car yesterday but, as usual, the team have improved things overnight. Perez was back in seventh place and that suggests that the Red Bull does not have much in hand, if anything.
Red Bull have tended to run their power units in a lower mode than the others in practice and if that is the case, Verstappen can get his seventh pole of the season.
McLaren
Lando Norris has been top 3 in every session and he is right in the mix. He set his best time on a set of tyres that had done a couple of laps as he had to abort his first run. On a brand new set, he likely would have set the fastest time. However, he was first to put a flying lap in and the track was getting hotter, and slower, at the end of the session, so it is hard to say.
Piastri made a mistake in S3 and he will be closer later, but he has been slower than Norris in every session, and by some margin.
Ferrari
Leclerc was struggling on Friday, but he said the car was much improved today. He deliberately drove into Norris late in the session and I would be surprised if he didn’t get himself a grid penalty for the race. Silly boy.
Carlos Sainz has been the faster of the Ferrari drivers in all three sessions. Like Norris, he has been top three in all sessions and topped the time sheet in FP3, albeit by just 0.03 from Norris. Perhaps that is at the root of Leclerc’s anger? However there was only 0.037 between the two in FP3 and Leclerc is usually the better qualifier.
Mercedes
Russell was 0.125 off Sainz’ best time, Hamilton 0.346, but he had a little trip through the gravel in S3. Hamilton was fastest in FP2, but it was George who made a mistake on that occasion. They might just be a tenth or two shy.
The Rest
The rest of the field are not in frame for pole. Eyecatchers in the pack include Alex Albon who ended FP3 in eighth, his second session in the top 10. He may be able to get to his third Q3 in a row.
The two Alpines are going well, not as well as yesterday, but that would have been down to low fuel. They have only had one Q3 appearance all season, and if they get one here it will be very good news for the team.
Aston Martin are on the cusp of the top 10. Alonso should be able to drag his car into Q3 but Stroll has been slow all weekend. He also deliberately drove into Hamilton in FP3 and that may mean a grid penalty for tomorrow.
2024 Spanish GP Qualifying Summary
It is very tight. The top four drivers in FP3 were separated by just 0.074, the width of the proverbial cigarette paper. Mercedes were not that far off either, so it looks like game on for pole position.
In terms of which drivers from each team will lead the charge, I would have to say it is Verstappen, Norris, Leclerc and Russell. Sainz has been the better Ferrari driver so far, but Leclerc just has that raw pace needed to get the absolute most out of his car. Russell has been better than Hamilton in all but one qualifying session this year.
Weather
The weather at the track is clouding over in the build up to qualifying. Rain is not on the radar but the air temperature has dropped three degrees from FP3. The track has been around 44-46 degrees in the three sessions so far, nice and consistent, but it is going to be cooler this afternoon.
The track surface at Barcelona is very sensitive to changes in temperature. Just a few degrees change can suddenly change the grip levels. That may help some, and hurt others. With an hour to go, the track has dropped by ten degrees.
Tyres
It was clear that drivers were losing tyre performance in S3 as the tyres got too hot at the end of the lap. It is an important part of the lap and having some life left in the tyres in S3 may be the deciding factor.
McLaren are a bit easier on the tyres and on a hot track, that pays dividends at the end of the lap. I suspect that McLaren would be happier with a sunny afternoon and a hot track. Any significant cooling might be better for Mercedes and Ferrari. Red Bull seem to cope well with a range of temperatures.
FP3 Form
Watching FP3, I was learning towards Norris for pole, but the cooling track has put more of a doubt in my mind.
Carlos Sainz only has five poles for Ferrari, Leclerc has twenty four, albeit from more races. Advantage Leclerc in terms of past form, he also had pole here in 2022. However, Leclerc has just looked a bit out of sorts this weekend, and slower than Sainz.
Verstappen has already scored seven pole positions in 2024, but not in the last two. He has only had the one pole position on this track, which is a surprise given that the Red Bull has been so strong for the last three years.
Russell only has the two poles for Mercedes, but he has only driven the less competitive versions. Perhaps the fact that the car is now sorted and that he was on pole in the last race is a big hint.
The odds must lead the choice.
Take On Max
It looks worthwhile taking on Verstappen, but he does deserve to be favourite. His best odds are 2.15 and it is not often you get odds against for him. Norris is the 3.50 second favourite, both Ferraris 9.00, Russell 20.00 and Hamilton 21.00.
Norris and Sainz have been the two most consistently fast drivers so far. Norris has not yet had a front row in 2024, however. Sainz has just the one, so they will both have to buck the trend.
We have backed George Russell for the race and the Merc has been competitive so far. Maybe lacking a tenth, but he pulled it off in Montreal. His odds look very big for a driver that was just 0.125 slower in FP3. Of course, he has four drivers ahead of him, but if ‘Mr. Saturday’ can pull a special out of the bag, he will be close. The big odds have seduced me.
