2024 Spanish GP Raceday Update & Tips – JP
2024 Spanish GP Raceday Preview
Now, it is time for James Punt’s 2024 Spanish GP Raceday preview. We were out of luck with our qualifying bet but we go again.
2024 Spanish GP Raceday Update
We now know who is where in terms of pace on a proper racetrack. Now, it is a matter of who can execute the race the best.
A quick check on the weather first. With a couple of hours to go before the start of the race, the weather is dry, sunny and warm. The forecast is for the start of the race to be around 22 degrees, partly cloudy with a 80% of a dry race. If we do get any rain, it will be light.
The track will be cooler than it has been all weekend and we might get some cars not working as well on the tyres, maybe some working better.
The F3 race saw the rain come down on the final lap. The track was bone dry for the start of the F2 race, so the rain didn’t last long. The rain never looked bad enough to wash the track so it shouldn’t be green.
Closely Matched
There is nothing between the McLaren and Red Bull. 0.020 seconds between Norris on pole and Verstappen alongside him. The race will be decided by who makes the better start, who gets their race strategy right and perhaps most importantly, who can manage the tyres the best.
A two stop race is the fastest strategy around this track but what compounds are employed, and when, is more open.
Starting on the soft tyre will be popular. It is the fastest tyre and easier to get off the line on. The hard tyre is said to be a second a lap slower than the soft, so not great for the opening laps. The two Red Bulls did start on the hards last year, but they had more performance in hand than they have today.
Strategies Key
We will see different strategies employed, maybe running on all three compounds for some. Mercedes, Ferrari and Alpine are the three teams in the top 10 with both cars alongside each other on the grid. They have the best option on strategy, maybe running different compounds for the two drivers at the stops.
Norris’ teammate is back in ninth and Perez 11th for Red Bull. Not so good strategy wise. Carlos Sainz has said that he is concerned about the level of tyre degradation for Ferrari.
Norris and Verstappen both have a set of new soft tyres available, as do Ferrari, and all those not in the top 10. The soft tyres will go off faster on a full tank of fuel but the pace advantage at the start does make it an attractive choice to start the race on. Norris may well be able to get a bit more life out of his and then be running on newer tyres later in the race.
High Degradation
Degradation is expected to be high and I expect that to play into the hands of Norris. The problem for that strategy is that the undercut is stronger on high degradation tracks. The driver to pit first can make up a place, so Norris is unlikely to stay out for much longer, even if the tyres are in decent shape. Track position is still king.
From what we have seen this season, I would say that the McLaren holds an advantage when it comes to tyre degradation. Norris has shown the ability to bring the tyres in slowly before unleashing great pace later in the race. That may make him vulnerable in the early laps but at some point, I think he will have stronger pace than Verstappen, like the end of the Imola race.
Nothing In It
That may be the deciding factor. On Friday, there was not much between Red Bull, Ferrari and McLaren on long run pace, Mercedes were nearly half a second down. Of course, the teams have tweaked their set ups since then, so I don’t put too much credence on those gaps.
Since 2014, the pole sitter has won seven of the ten races here, the driver in second place has won twice and the other was from fourth. That was Verstappen, on his debut race for Red Bull. That was the race were Hamilton and Rosberg took each other off on the opening lap.
The average attrition rate in those ten races is 2.4 not classifieds per race. Four races have seen exactly two, and in the last five years, the average rate is just 1.20. If we get a clean start through the opening corners, the retirement rate should be low.
2024 Spanish GP Raceday: Team-by-Team Outlook
Red Bull
Do not have the fastest car here. McLaren have caught them and Verstappen is going to have earn a win if he is to get it. Perez is down in eleventh, wasting a good seat.
Verstappen was much happier in the car on Saturday than he was on Friday, as is the usual case. He did get a tow down the straight, which boosted his top speed. Without that, the gap to Norris would have been bigger.
Starting second on a long starting straight does give Verstappen a chance to attack Norris into the first corner, but that is not without risk. He will also have the advantage of DRS down the long straight should he not get past on the first lap.
Verstappen is right in the mix for the win, Perez will be looking to make inroads into the top 10. He has struggled all weekend, but he is usually very good at tyre management and that could be well rewarded today.
McLaren
Have now matched Red Bull for pace, now it is about execution. To say the team lost the race in Montreal is perhaps a bit harsh, but had they been a bit more proactive in getting Norris into the pits when Sargeant crashed, then Norris may well have won. They have not been a front running team for a long time and it may be advantage to Red Bull in that respect.
I do think McLaren can cope with the tyre degradation a little better today and that should give Norris an advantage at some point. Piastri is back in ninth place. He has struggled with understeer all weekend and has not looked good. He is also not as good on tyre management and he might struggle this afternoon.
Mercedes
Just 0.002 seconds separated the two Mercs in qualifying. I don’t expect much love between the two. Hamilton has toned down his conspiracy theories, but Russell was not happy with Hamilton in qualifying yesterday, claiming that he had gone too slowly on the out lap, preventing Russell from getting his tyres in the right window.
They raced aggressively in Canada so I don’t expect any team orders, or they won’t be followed if there are. We are on Russell ante post, but he will need something strange to happen to win from fourth place on the grid.
Their long run pace was not up there with the two front runners but so long as they don’t crash into each other, they should be able to bring the cars home where they started, but Russell will want to put one over his teammate.
Ferrari
Another disappointing weekend so far. They had looked decent on Friday, at least Sainz did. He ran with the new upgrades from FP1, Leclerc only from FP2.
Leclerc was not happy on Friday, but said the car was much better yesterday. However, their pace fell away in qualifying. It looked like they were in the mix for a front row at least, but they ended up fifth and sixth.
There are concerns about tyre degradation for Ferrari and it is hard to see them improving their position if that turns out to be the case. The car is struggling in the fast corners, with a bit of bouncing, so they are not going to have an easy race.
Alpine
To get both cars on to the fourth row at Barcelona is a big result for Alpine. The car is heavy, but the aerodynamics must be good. It looked like they were just low on fuel on Friday but it turns out that the car is quite good here.
The problem is that the drivers hate each other and starting beside each other is not good. The first lap here is tricky and I would not be surprised to see them coming together. Neither will yield. If they can avoid each other, a double points finish is on the cards.
Aston Martin
A disappointing weekend so far. Their race pace is usually worse than qualifying pace and Perez looks set to demote Alonso out of the top ten. The car just lacks the pace of those ahead.
Kick Sauber
Bottas has been running around in the top twelve for most of the weekend. A chance to finally get some points on the board? I suspect only if we get some attrition from the cars ahead. Their race pace is usually poor but with some upgrades on the car, maybe he can do it.
Zhou did score points here last year from thirteenth on the grid, so you never know. The car is definitely better this weekend and it is the first time they have got both cars into Q2. Zhou has a new chassis this weekend, which he says is making a difference.
Haas
Their long run pace looked to be the best of the midfield teams on Friday, but the team have been pessimistic about their chances on this track. Like Bottas, if Hulkenberg is to score points, he will likely need more attrition than we are likely to get.
VISA RB
The biggest disappointment of the weekend. Consistently the best of the midfield teams up to now, they come to a real car track, with upgrades, and the pace disappears. Only Williams were slower. A real head scratcher, but they are out of it from seventeenth and eighteenth. It is a test session for them now.
Williams
Albon looked to have good pace in practice, but with both cars on the back row, they have been found out on a good test track. Really poor. The car doesn’t like the long duration corners, so they are Donald Ducked here.
Summary
Who wins the race? Lando or Max?
Lando has the advantage in terms of tyre management and degradation. He starts with track position, which is important here. Verstappen has slightly better top speed and DRS if he can keep close to Lando.
The first lap is crucial. If Max gets ahead, he will be hard to beat with that speed advantage. If Lando can stay ahead and get enough of a gap to stay ahead on the long straight, he wins.
It is a bit of a coin toss, and as such the value lies with Norris at odds of 2.63, compared to Verstappen’s 1.80. I can’t go steaming in as it is not a sure thing, but Norris is the value pick. There is reasonable liquidity on the exchange and worth shopping there if you can.
2024 Spanish GP Raceday Tip: 2 points Lando Norris to win @ 2.63 generally available (2.90+ Betfair Exchange)
World Championship Betting
McLaren are in a very interesting position right now. They have passed the pace test of Barcelona. They have a very good car, a match for Red Bull, and it looks like they have the scope to get faster. Red Bull seem to have stalled in terms of development. McLaren did a great job of developing their car in 2023 and are doing so again.
We now have two races after this weekend on tracks that are really going to suit McLaren. I expect Norris to win in Austria, it is his best track. Silverstone is very winnable. Hungary? Harder to say, but Belgium is another target. They really could have their boot on the Red Bull throat after the summer break.
Back Norris
Norris is as low as 7.00 to win the Drivers’ Championship, but 17.00 with Ladbrokes. He is 63 points behind Verstappen, with fifteen races to go. It is a big gap, and maybe unsurpassable, but it will close and perhaps this being the longest ever season, could make it possible.
We are already on Norris to win without Verstappen, and that is now a 2.00 chance. I am happy to have a tilt on Norris for the Drivers’ Championship.
2024 F1 World Championship Tip: 1 point Lando Norris to win the World Drivers Championship @ 17.00 with Ladbrokes, Boylesports
In the Constructors’ Championship, McLaren are 89 points behind Red Bull. If, and it is a big if, Piastri can start to deliver better results, they can start to eat into that lead quite quickly.
They may now have the faster car and at Red Bull, Perez is having another meltdown. Perez had a good first six races, but he now looks a mile away from podiums. If Ferrari can get back on track, and Mercedes start to get good results more often, Perez could be frozen out of the big points.
2024 F1 World Championship Tip: 1 point McLaren to win the Constructors Championship @ 7.00 with Ladbrokes
Back to today’s race.
Kick Sauber have been a positive surprise this weekend. They have found some pace, maybe not enough for points on merit but they are more competitive.
You can get 3.75 for Bottas to finish in the points, but I will settle for 3.00 in Ladbrokes Group 3. He is grouped with Hulkenberg and Stroll. The Aston Martin looks to be struggling and this looks more like a match bet between Bottas and Hulkenberg and that would be a bit of a coin toss.
2024 Spanish GP Raceday Tip: 1 point Valtteri Bottas to win Group B @ 3.00 with Ladbrokes
Having just done a hatchet job on Perez above, I am going to back him, because I can. He looks overpriced to beat Oscar Piastri. He did out qualify Piastri but was demoted three places because of his penalty carried over from Canada.
Perez has been faster in three of the four sessions so far and with tyre management going to be important today, that is something he does well, and Piastri does badly.
2024 Spanish GP Raceday Tip: 2 points Sergio Perez to beat Oscar Piastri @ 2.60 with Unibet, Ladbrokes
Mercedes are sounding quite confident about their race pace, Ferrari are concerned about tyre deg. Charles Leclerc has been a bit funny this weekend. Very unhappy on Friday, deliberately crashing into Norris in FP3 and then Ferrari disappointed in qualifying.
It could be that after the elation of winning in Monaco, his bubble has burst? A DNF in Canada and now demoted to fourth best car in Spain, which is a good barometer of performance. They have been flattered by the woes for Piastri and Perez, otherwise they would be starting on the fourth row and not the third. He looks worth taking on with Russell.
