2024 Spring Double Betting Preview – DS
2024 Spring Double Preview
It’s that time of year again. We made a disastrous start to the flat season at the Curragh on Monday. Nothing to show for five bets but we were due a bad day after a pretty solid run in recent weeks. Now, Dave Stevos is going to turn his focus to finding the winners of the Lincoln at Donny and the Grand National. Each way singles and an e/w double are recommended, check out his 2024 Spring Double selections below.
Saturday March 23 Doncaster – Lincoln Handicap (Premier)
Let’s hope our selection for this race runs better than Razdan did in the Irish version. The ground is currently soft at Doncaster. There’s rain forecast on Wednesday but it should be pretty dry after that so I’d guess the Lincoln will be run on soft ground, possibly with some good to soft in places.
The horse I’ll be taking a chance on at a nice price is Greatgadian. Trained by Roger Varian, this 6yo son of Siyouni certainly won’t be lacking race sharpness or fitness. After a two month break at the end of August he’s been running on the all-weather through the winter and he’s been running consistently well.
Excellent Effort
He came into last year’s heavy ground Lincoln after a similar preparation and he ran an excellent race. The gelding was dropped out from stall 6 and Aidan Keely got him settled at the back. 3f out few were travelling better and he switched his mount out wide to make his effort. He picked up well but the inside was the place to be and he ended up running on well for 6th, 4.75L behind Migration.
That run came off a mark of 100 with Aidan Keely claiming 5lbs. He’s back on the job this weekend taking off 3lbs but crucially, Greatgadian is in off just 92. So, he’ll be effectively running off 6lbs lower than last season.
Swing In Weights
Varian’s charge was receiving 9lbs from the winner that day. He’ll be getting 19lbs from him today. He was 3.5L behind Awaal, from whom he was getting 7lbs. On Saturday he’ll be getting 13lbs from him.
Now it must be said that this horse has a poor strike rate on turf but he hasn’t had many chances on soft ground. I would be amazed if this race hasn’t been on Roger Varian’s radar for some time and if Greatgadian can run to the same level as last year, he can hopefully reward e/w support at 40/1.
2024 Spring Double Lincoln Selection: Greatgadian e/w @ 40/1 (5 places Coral)
Saturday April 13 Aintree – Grand National Handicap Chase (Premier)
We’ve already backed I Am Maximus e/w for this race at 25/1. He’s into 12s now after winning his trial so the e/w value has gone. There is another Willie Mullins horse that looks pretty big at around 40/1 and his name is Stattler.
This horse isn’t the quickest but he does one thing extremely well and that is stay. He hacked up at the 2022 Cheltenham Festival in the NH Chase over a trip of 30f, the furthest trip he has tried. He had Vanillier 30 lengths behind him that day back in third and he only has to give him 7lbs here so you would think he should uphold that form.
Lightly Campaigned
Stattler has been very lightly campaigned this season. He had a couple of spins in November and January over 20f, a trip way too short for him. He actually shaped nicely in the second of those runs at Thurles (20f sft) when chasing home Allaho.
Last time out he ran over the banks course on bad ground at Punchestown. Patrick Mullins said he didn’t handle the unique fences very well and he trailed in a well beaten fourth, 34L behind the winner Coko Beach.
That run should have done him plenty of good from a fitness perspective. It’ll hopefully be better ground at Aintree but once it isn’t heavy I’ll be happy enough. It’s not that long ago (five runs) since this fella chased home Galopin Des Champs at the Dublin Racing Festival so he is clearly classy and this stamina test could be tailor made for him. At odds of 40/1, Stattler is the e/w selection.
