2024 Sunday Grand Slam Darts Preview

Just one winner for James Punt on Saturday night. Unfortunately, Luke Littler was at his very best and he didn’t give Wattimena a sniff. Gian Van Veen pushed Anderson all the way but just came up short in the end. It all comes down to Smash Lukeman now… Check out James’ 2024 Sunday Grand Slam Darts match previews and tips below.

Martin Lukeman vs. Mickey Mansell

Not many had this semi-final line up on their bingo card, but at least we had half of it. Lukeman is one match away from reaching the final and landing the place part of our 176.00 e/w bet. He is the 1.67 favourite to do just that.

Lukeman has won nine of his last ten matches and he was starting to hit his stride in his quarter final win over Rob Cross. He averaged 98.34 in the end, but he did start very slowly and was 1-4 at the first break.

Once he got motoring, there was no stopping him. He won eight legs in a row at one point and that knocked the stuffing out of Cross. Voltage did get it back to 10-10 but Lukeman won six of the last seven legs to wrap it up 16-11.

Slow Start

Mansell also started slowly, and he too was 1-4 at the first break. He finished the match better than he started it, but he only had seven legs with 15 darts or less, compared to eleven for Lukeman. It was a 16-15 win in the end and a 91.19 average for Mansell.

Mansell has won eight of his last ten matches and his tournament average is 96.68, compared to 94.93 for Lukeman. Mansell is hitting the 180s at 0.27 per leg, Lukeman 0.25, and game wise there is not a lot between them.

H2H

Their H2H record is a worrying 4-1 to Mansell. He won their only match in 2024 6-3, his third 6-3 win in a row over Lukeman. It could be that Lukeman is affected by Mansell’s slow pace. Lukeman is the better player in almost every measurable aspect of the game, but he hasn’t been able turn that into more than one win over the Northern Irishman.

In the last ten years, 40% of the semi-finals have ended with a 16-12 scoreline, and 65% over 27.5 legs. I do not see either player running away with the match, despite none of their previous matches being in anyway close.

2024 Sunday Grand Slam Darts Tip: 1 point Over 27.5 legs @ 1.91 with Hills

Gary Anderson vs. Luke Littler

Anderson ended our hopes with Gian van Veen last night with a 16-14 win. Gian started playing poorly, but still had a 3-2 lead at the break and extended that to 4-2. Anderson then hit an 11 dart leg and he was off, winning four in a row and he just kept van Veen at arm’s length from there on in.

It wasn’t a great game of darts, the averages ended up at 99 for Anderson, 97 for Van Veen, but once in front, Anderson never looked like giving it up.

Anderson has the highest 3 dart average of all over the last 12 months (99.16), mostly accumulated in floor events. Littler has the second highest (98.87). Both have won eight of their last ten matches and Anderson’s tournament average is 102.72, Littler’s 106.14.

They both have checkout rates of 41%, percentage of legs won is 59% for both, 180s per leg is 0.40 for Anderson, and 0.39 for Littler. All very close, but more of Littler’s work has been done on the TV stage. Their H2H record is 0-0, and you can’t get closer than that.

Littler Odds On

On paper, there is nothing much between them, but the market is making Littler a 1.36 chance, Anderson 3.25. The problem is, that after watching Littler rip through Wattimena 16-2 last night, it is hard to envisage anything else but a Littler victory. Is it really about the margin of victory, or does Anderson have a realistic chance? The stats suggests that he does, your eyes say he hasn’t a hope in hell.

Anderson has played in six Grand Slam semi-finals and won two. Five were played as a first to 16 format and four went over 27.5 legs, and his last one was a 16-12 win over MVG. I give Anderson a reasonable chance of getting the match to over 27.5 legs, but I’ll take Littler to continue the trend of 16-12 results in semi-finals. There have been five 16-12 results in the last five years.

2024 Sunday Grand Slam Darts Tip: 1 point over 27.5 legs @ 2.05 with Boylesports

2024 Sunday Grand Slam Darts Tip: 0.5 point Luke Littler to win 16-12 @ 10.00 generally available

The Final

I am not going to be able to cover the actual final, but I will have one bet on it, regardless of who is in it.

The two sides of the draw look very lopsided. Two of the top rated players in the world in the bottom half, and the world number 39 and 43 in the top half. An Anderson vs. Lukeman final could be tasty based on their UK Open match earlier this year, but four of the last five finals have seen big margins of victories in one sided, and frankly dull, finals.

1 point Under 27.5 legs is the call, but of course, the odds are not set as of now. If we can get anything better than 1.75, then the bet is on.

-JamesPunt