2024 UK Open Sunday Afternoon Preview – JP
2024 UK Open Sunday Afternoon Tips
Now, it is time for James Punt’s 2024 UK Open Sunday Afternoon Preview. We smashed the bookies last night with three winners from four tips, including a lovely 4.60 touch on Martin Lukeman. James has four more bets for this afternoon’s quarter finals in Minehead, you can check them out below.
Outlook
Damon Heta is our final outright selection remaining, and he drew the favourite. To be honest, he is lucky to have got this far. Coming back from 4-8 vs. Aspinall, and 3-7 vs. Van Veen means he has used up a few lives. Van Veen should have beaten him last night, but he just couldn’t hit double 16 and he kept on leaving it.
Stepehen Bunting vs. Luke Humphries
Luke Humphries is looking very sharp this weekend. Yes, he has had a very easy passage to get this far, but he has averaged 101, 101 and 100 in his three matches so far, so I think we know what to expect.
Bunting denied us a clean sweep of winning bets last night, beating Peter Wright 10-9. That was the sort of match that Bunting would have lost this time last year, but he is, arguably, the most improved player in darts right now.
Bunting, like Humphries has won six of his last ten matches. He hasn’t scored as well as Luke, but it was a 99 average vs. Wright last night, so he is in decent nick.
Close H2H
Their H2H record is 8-6 to Luke Humphries but they have a habit of taking turns to win. Humphries won their first four matches, but their last four have been win-lose, win-lose. Bunting won their last one. That was at the Masters when Humphries’ head was still spinning, and where Bunting went on to win his first TV title in the PDC.
Luke Humphries is the 1.50 favourite, Bunting 2.70. I can’t argue with those odds but am happy to bet that we have a competitive match, something like their 10-7 result in Milton Keynes, just with a different winner.
2024 UK Open Sunday Tip: 1 point over 16.5 legs @ 1.91 with Hills, Fitzdares
Ricky Evans vs. Rob Cross
Ricky Evans has reached his second major quarter final, the first being the 2019 European Championship, which he lost 6-10 to, yes, Rob Cross. He has won six of his last ten matches, four of them here. He has won all four easily but this should be a more challenging match.
Rob Cross has won six of his last ten matches and has hit seven 96+ averages. He is a very consistent performer but his 2024 win rate is just 43%. There is a soft underbelly in there, if Evans can find it. Cross has not enjoyed much success at this stage of the UK Open, having played four quarter finals and lost three.
Cross Dominant
The one overwhelming stat here is their H2H record. 5-0 to Rob Cross, and of course, that 10-6 win in Evans’ only other major quarter final. Rob cross may not remember it, he has played a lot of major quarter finals, but I dare say Evans will.
In fact, Ricky must hate the sight of Rob Cross. Every time they have played, he has had his arse handed to him on a plate. The cumulative leg score of Cross’ five wins is 34-8.
I suspect that Cross will get his second UK Open quarter final win. Evans is playing well and is a tougher proposition than he might have been in the past, but he would have been hoping for anyone but Rob Cross before last night’s draw.
Cross is the 1.29 favourite to win, with Evans the 4.33 outsider.
2024 UK Open Sunday Tip: Under 16.5 legs 1 point @ 1.75 with Fitzdares
2024 UK Open Sunday Tip: 0.5 point Rob Cross to win 10-6 @ 7.00 generally available
Damon Heta vs. Luke Littler
Littler is the 1.30 favourite, which doesn’t even give us much room to hedge. Our 51.00 ante post selection has dodged a few bullets so far, so maybe his luck is in this weekend, but he will need every bit of it.
Littler isn’t unbeatable, of course, he has lost three of his last ten matches, but he is playing at the top of his game this weekend. Averages of 101.8, 101.8 and 103.3 tell their own story, but he was made to work very hard by Martin Schindler in the fifth round. Had the German been better on the doubles, Heta’s task might have been a different one.
Battling Heta
Damon Heta is averaging 95.33 across his three matches so far, and while he has shown good battling qualities, he is likely to need to find more firepower to go with the fight.
On the positive side, Heta has a better win rate than Littler in 2024, 78% to 74%, and his seasonal average is 97.4, so he does have more in the tank. He has won his last ten matches in a row, so you can’t knock his form. He will give Littler a match.
Littler is the 1.30 favourite and Heta 3.80. They have not played each other yet so there is no past form to go on.
Quarter Final Woes
Heta has played in a lot of major quarter finals, including here in 2022 when he lost 5-10 to Danny Noppert. Since then he lost a Matchplay quarter final, a Grand Slam quarter final, a Players Championship finals quarter final and a Masters quarter final. He has a habit of losing major quarter finals, nil from seven so far.
I will expect the worst and hope for the best. We backed him at 51.00. You might be able to lay some of at 17.00, but I am just going to sit this one out.
2024 UK Open Sunday Tip: No Bet
Martin Lukeman vs. Dimitri van den Bergh
Occasionally, you get to watch a game of darts that leaves you slack jawed. Lukeman beating Gary Anderson 10-5 was one. It was a display of finishing from the Gods. Gary Anderson averaged 102.5 and could hardly get a look in.
As soon as Smash saw an out shot, he hit it. It was ridiculous, but not surprising. Lukeman is playing fantastic darts right now. He has had problems off the oche, which ruined his 2023, but all that is behind him now, he is happy and enjoying his darts again.
Lukeman has won eight of his last ten matches and he averaged over 100 in his two defeats. Seven of his last ten matches have seen ton plus averages.
Dimitri Has Experience Edge
Van den Bergh has won six of his last ten matches, is playing OK and he is much more experienced in these big TV matches. He is a major winner and a semi-finalist here last year.
So long as Lukeman doesn’t start thinking about winning the final, getting ahead of himself, he can win this. A lack of big match experience is a negative, but he owes us nothing and he remains very underrated. He is the outsider in a few books, which is wrong.
Their H2H record is 2-1 to Van den Bergh, but I expect Smash to balance the account here, just as he did with Noppert.
The main concern is that Van den Bergh likes to play mind games. He will slow the game right down, which may knock Lukeman out of his rhythm. He enjoyed the pace of play against Anderson and he won’t get it here.
