2024 US GP Raceday Update and Tips – JP
2024 US GP Raceday Preview
Now, it is time for James Punt’s 2024 US GP Raceday preview. We have been out of luck so far, fingers crossed we can turn things around.
2024 US GP Raceday Update
We nearly got a winner yesterday. Verstappen was flying on his final qualifying lap, but George Russell stuffed it in the wall, causing a yellow flag and everyone had to slow down and it was game over. That left Lando Norris in an unlikely pole position.
Team By Team
McLaren
Not the fastest car this weekend, but fortune shone on Norris, and he starts from pole and gets the chance of racing in clean air, and that is a huge plus. But he has to boss the start and first corner, and that is not straight forward here.
Norris does get the ‘clean’ side of the track and the best line into the first corner, but Verstappen starts on the inside and if he finds the necessary grip off the line, he could try and pinch the first corner at the Apex and push Norris out wide. The start is always a bit hairy here.
In the nine races here in the turbo hybrid era, the pole sitter has gone on to win four times and the driver starting second has also won four. It is not always a case of it being won or lost in the first corner, but such is the clean air advantage with these cars, it is very advantageous to lead.
Piastri starts fifth and he has not finished any session higher than fifth, so he is hard to fancy. Norris said that his pole lap yesterday was one of his best ever laps, which suggests that he will find it hard to match that sort of advantage today.
Red Bull
The autumn break has given Red Bull enough time to address the problems that were making their car so difficult to drive. Verstappen is happy again, and that tells you all you need to know. From McLaren having a substantial performance advantage, to what looks like near parity this weekend. It should be pointed out that the changes to the car are only on Verstappen’s car, which partly accounts for Perez being back in tenth.
Ferrari
Like Verstappen, Carlos Sainz was compromised by Russell’s crash and subsequent yellow flag. He was on a lap that was going put him in contention for pole. In the end he was a very respectable third, with Leclerc fourth.
The two Ferrari drivers were fighting each other, tooth and nail, in the sprint race. No team orders here and Sainz will be keen to remind the team what they are giving up by moving him out to make way for Hamilton.
The Ferrari looks to be a very good race car, and locking out the second row was probably above expectations, as their one lap pace is not that competitive. They are very much in the frame for this race.
Mercedes
It all looked so good on Friday. Mercedes should have that printed on their merchandise. It was a few degrees warmer on Saturday and suddenly their car is right off the pace. The sweet spot is the size of a pin head.
Hamilton says he had a mechanical problem with the suspension which made the car undriveable. Russell stuffed it in the wall in Q3, the consequence of which is that he will be running an old spec car, without the upgraded parts. Whether that will make much difference is open to speculation. But they had a good Friday, so that’s OK. They are out of the running now.
Alpine
It is very unusual to see an Alpine qualifying in the top ten, never mind seventh place. Gasly has the upgraded car, Ocon the old spec monster, and he is way back in thirteenth place. It looks like a good upgrade then, albeit a bit late in the season. It must be said that at no time has Gasly looked like he was going to be in the top 10, so I am not really sure now he did it.
Gasly did qualify seventh at Barcelona and brought it home in ninth place. He said that they made quite a few changes after the sprint race, obviously using data collected in the first three sessions. He said it was a surprise to find the car so much better to drive, so it seems Alpine just did a good job.
Aston Martin
The same could be said for Aston Martin. Their cars had been really very poor in the first three sessions, But Alonso ended up eighth in qualifying proper. Stroll was still toiling down in fourteenth place. Alonso has finished in the top ten in six of the last ten races so he should hang on for a point or two today.
Haas
Magnussen qualified in ninth position but the usual qualifying specialist, Nico Hulkenberg, could only manage twelfth. They have already managed to move ahead of Visa RB in the constructors table, thanks to picking up three points in the sprint race.
Magnussen has been top nine in every session so far, even in the old spec car he ran for the first three. Magnussen has not qualified in the top 10 all year, so they have made a considerable improvement with the latest upgrade.
Visa RB
Tsunoda has been on the cusp of the top 10 all weekend, but just missed out yesterday. He made a good start in yesterday’s sprint race but he couldn’t hold his place and finished eleventh, just ahead of our man Colapinto in twelfth.
The Visa RB doesn’t tend to make up places over a race distance and he has a faster Haas behind him, so points look unlikely, on merit. Dawson starts from the back thanks to a power unit penalty.
Williams
Very disappointing this weekend it must be said.
Sauber
Consistency on a stick. Consistently rubbish, but Bottas has upgraded rubbish.
2024 US GP Raceday Summary
This looks like an interesting race between the top four cars on the grid. The Ferrari seems to be the fastest car over a race distance, but the car that leads the race will have a handy advantage. Ferrari will need to get that lead reasonably quickly to avoid killing the tyres following in dirty air.
History says that this track favours the two cars on the front row, but maybe Ferrari can change that. Leclerc did win at Monza from fourth place on the grid.
Sainz Underrated
Carlos Sainz has looked the better of the two Ferrari drivers this weekend. He is a bit underrated and doesn’t have the same one lap pace of Leclerc, but he can be quick on his day. He also has a point to prove. Sainz started the sprint race from fifth place and finished second, that was the standout display. He starts from third today and has more time to make their race pace count.
Verstappen is the 1.90 favourite, pole sitter Norris 3.50, Sainz 7.50 and Leclerc 10.00. Some of the bookmakers are again offering e/w for the first three, but sadly the ones that don’t take bets. I’ll just go with a straight win bet to modest stakes.
2024 US GP Raceday Tip: 1 point Carlos Sainz to win @ 7.50 with Betfred
I am going to take a chance on Gasly to get a result today. Alpine, a bit of a basket case, seem to have done a good job with their upgrade and they made good set up changes after the sprint race which has found the sweet spot.
Gasly ended up sixth here last year, but that was thanks to Hamilton and Leclerc being disqualified. From seventh on the grid, maybe he can do it on merit this time. He may need a car in front to have a problem, a bit of luck is often needed to get a bet like this over the line, but he looks a sporting bet at the odds.
2024 US GP Raceday Tip: 1 point Pierre Gasly to finish in the top 6 @ 9.00 with BET365
The points finish market is always very competitive and hard to find much value in, but I like the look of Magnussen’s odds. He made up a place in the sprint race, in the old car, and while he started eighth in that, and only ninth today, he can afford to drop a place and still score a point, which is his target. He has been top nine in every session so far so his pace is real.
2024 US GP Raceday Tip: 1 point Kevin Magnussen to finish in the points @ 1.80 with Ladbrokes
Match betting wise, I will stick to my new favourite, Colapinto. He is being completely underrated, and as such offers good value. The Williams is a bit of a handful this weekend and they are not in the hunt for points, but Colapinto was the faster of the two drivers in sprint qualifying and was only one place off in qualifying proper.
His sprint race was OK, but he didn’t recover from dropping two places at the start. Albon should be favourite, but no way is Colapinto a 3.55 shot to beat his teammate. They line up on the same row on the grid, in the same car. He should be nearer 2.50.
