2024 WC Darts Final Preview & Tips

No winners for us last night but more importantly, Luke Humphries made it through to the final. He hammered Scott Williams 6-0 and produced the best performance of the tournament so far. Luke Littler was also mightily impressive vs Rob Cross, winning 6-2. Can the teenage sensation finish off the job, or will Cool Hand land our 3 point outright bet? Check out James Punt’s 2024 WC Darts Final preview and tips below.

Overview

And then, there were two. The new World Number 1, Luke Humphries and the unstoppable force that is Luke Littler.

The media coverage of the ‘young lad’ is huge, which is good for the game, but it looks like we are heading for a darts’ punting desert. If we have a sixteen year old rocking up at the World Championship and blowing everyone out of the water, the outright betting markets are about to become as dull as ditch water.

One player/team dominating a sport is dull, deadly dull. Just like when Phil Taylor won everything, or Van Gerwen, or Schumacher, or Manchester City. It is dull knowing who is going to win. The novelty will soon wear off and people will just switch off.

A win for Luke Humphries won’t be much better. If he wins, he will have won four of the last five major titles so it ‘lukes’ like we are in for an era of domination by one Luke or another.

Luke Humphries vs. Luke Littler

Last year it was Michael vs. Michael, so it looks like we have a new system of predicting the finalists, just pick two with the same first name.

I think everything that can be said about these two has been said in previous previews. Over his six matches, Littler has a tournament average of 101.49, a checkout rate of 44.75% and a 180 per leg rate of 0.393. Humphries is 99.28, 41.88% and 0.398.

Humphries took a few matches before he hit his stride and his last two matches have seen averages of 108.74 and 103.5. I expect something similar tonight. You would think that would be enough, but it wasn’t for Rob Cross last night. Cross ended with an average of 102.77 and was above that for much of the semi-final against Littler. He lost 2-6.

Crowd Concerns

Humphries struggled with the crowd being against him in the match vs. Pietreczko, saying it was the most hostile atmosphere he had ever faced. Well, bad news Luke, it is going to be ten times worse tonight.

Maybe if they are just shouting ‘Luke’ he can convince himself they are shouting for him. The reality is that Humphries will have his Mum, Dad and girlfriend cheering him on….and that will be it. He will have to try and win with several thousand punters against him.

There is no doubt that Humphries has timed his run well, finding his A-game in the last couple of matches, and he should have plenty left in the tank.

Cool Hand Fav

Obviously, we are heavily invested in Humphries to win the title and he goes into this match as the 1.73 favourite, with Littler 2.25. Laying off is an option but I will ride the storm and hope for the best. If I was coming at this match from scratch, the value looks to be with Littler. It looks close to a coin toss to me.

The final does funny things to players. They tend to find crossing the winning line hard. Especially first time winners. The enormity of what they are about to do can make the throwing arm do strange things. Which one is less likely to freeze is hard to say.

Humphries is used to winning Majors, while Littler is just used to winning full stop. At sixteen years old, he may not realise just what a big deal winning this will be.

Previous Finals

I have looked at the last ten finals to try and find some inspiration for bets for this match.

The average score has been 7-3.8. The average number of 180s 30.6. The highest checkout has been 170 (twice) and the lowest highest checkout 81, but in nine of the last ten finals both players have hit a ton plus checkout, and eight of the last ten have seen both players hit 120+ highest checkouts. The average highest checkout is 148.

Over 10.5 sets is a best price 1.60. Over 30.5 180s is 1.40. Highest checkout over 151.5 is 1.83. Hardly interesting.

One bet that would have paid out in six of the last ten years is the highest checkout to be under 150.5.

2024 WC Darts Final Tip: 1 point highest checkout to be under 150.5 @ 2.25 with Unibet

Both players have hit exactly fifty 180s so far, Humphries at 0.398 per leg, Littler 0.393. Combined they are hitting 180s at 3.337 per set.

The average number of sets played in the last ten years has been 10.80, so a total 180 shout for tonight looks like around 36 to me. Over 35.5 is a best priced 2.30 but that would have paid out just twice in the last ten years.

A more realistic over 33.5 is 1.75 and that has paid out four times in the last ten. That suggests we should be getting odds against, but not with the way these two are banging them in.

The biggest risk for the total being under is the length of the match. The bookies are expecting around 11 sets to be played and again, that suggests over 36 maximums.

2024 WC Darts Final Tip: 1 point over 33.5 180s @ 1.75 with Ladbrokes

I will leave it at that, I don’t really like betting in finals. Hopefully Luke Humphries can find his A+ game and we don’t fall at the final fence.

-JamesPunt