2024 WC Darts Friday Evening Preview & Tips – JP
2024 WC Darts Friday Evening Preview & Tips
Barney was our sole winner this afternoon. We now head into the evening session where we could have three absolute belters. Fingers crossed for an entertaining few matches, check out James Punt’s 2024 WC Darts Friday Evening previews and tips below.
Gary Anderson vs. Boris Krcmar
Anderson is the 1.18 favourite to make it 3-0 vs. Krcmar. Both their previous two matches were on the floor this year, with Anderson winning 6-4 and 6-2. Anderson averaged over 100 in both those matches and it is his scoring power that should see him through this.
He beat Simon Whitlock 3-0 in the second round and his average was pretty much bang on his seasonal average of 98.7. Something similar should be enough.
Krcmar is flying the flag for Croatia and he has done it well so far. He beat Keegan Brown and Dirk van Duijvenbode 3-1 but Dirk wasn’t fully fit and Brown hopelessly out of form.
Anderson has lost five of his last ten, but there isn’t too much wrong with his game outside of a little inconsistency.
Ally Pally Veteran
Anderson has played thirteen third round matches and won twelve. He lost at this stage last year, going down 1-4 to Chris Dobey, but he wasn’t playing great this time last year. Anderson has only won one to nil, three were 4-1 wins, two 4-2 and five 4-3. Is it a clue that Anderson has required a deciding set in his last four winning third round matches?
Krcmar has won eight of his last ten matches, but he hasn’t beaten much to be honest. If Anderson plays up to his seasonal average, he wins comfortably. Krcmar does have a very good A game but that only makes an appearance every 25 matches or so.
Heavier Scorer
It is likely that Anderson will be first to the finish more often than Krcmar. If he is hitting his doubles well, he can win reasonably comfortably.
Five of his last six matches have seen checkout rates of 41% or more, and more of that will do. His seasonal checkout rate is 40%, which is the same as Krcmar.
Boris is going to run out of ability at some stage, but he is playing well enough to give Anderson something to think about, and he should get something on the scoreboard.
2024 WC Darts Friday Evening Tip: 0.5 point Gary Anderson to win 4-3 @ 8.00 with Hills
Michael van Gerwen vs. Stephen Bunting
This is one of the BIG matches in this year’s Championship. Here we have the tournament favourite vs. the player who has shown the best form so far.
Bunting has hit two ton plus averages and is 104 across his two matches. He was totally unplayable in yesterday’s 4-0 win over Florian Hempel. The German was averaging over 100 for most of the match, but Bunting was nearer 115 at the same time. It just tailed off in the final set, but Bunting had run his opponent out of the game by then.
MVG said he wanted to play Bunting, because he wants to play the best players. He may have changed his mind if he watched yesterday’s match.
MVG Dominates H2H
However, Van Gerwen will be very aware of their H2H record. Mighty Mike is 20-3 against Bunting. It is 1-1 in 2023 with Bunting winning a Euro Tour match in February, but more significantly MVG beat Bunting 10-9 in the Players Championship finals a month ago. Bunting’s three wins have all been close and on the floor. MVG is 9-0 on TV.
Bunting has never been playing better than he is right now, but his Achillies Heel is between his ears. He has done some work with a sports psychologist, which has obviously worked, but Bunting is now going to be tested mentally.
He will know his record against MVG on TV and now he has to believe that he can finally get a win against his nemesis on the biggest TV stage of all. Bunting has tended to get especially tight in matches with Final in its title, so the fact that this is ‘just’ a fourth round may help.
MVG Mentality
It may also help that MVG’s own mental strength is not what it was. That is why he is no longer the dominant force in darts. He is getting used to getting beaten.
The question here is, can Bunting keep his form up, and back it up by doing it against Van Gerwen. The secondary question is, can MVG keep himself together if Bunting is hitting him with bomb after bomb?
Michael van Gerwen is the 1.55 favourite with Bunting 2.63.
In their Players Championship finals quarter final match last month, Bunting averaged 100 but still lost. MVG averaged 107 and was 71% on the doubles, to Bunting’s 53%, so both players played at a very high level.
Close
It was a close match, standing at 6-6 after the first twelve legs, but it was Bunting who made the break and took a 9-6 lead, needing just one more leg. MVG then hit three legs of 13, 12 and 11 darts to square the match and then hit a 12 darter to win.
That was a real mental test for both players and MVG passed. Bunting came up short again, but he was beaten, rather than losing it.
MVG’s odds are too short for me, but I can’t back Bunting to beat MVG in a straight bet. However, a close match looks likely. Bunting looks like he will hit at least some periods of being unplayable, MVG will just hang in and wait for his chance. It could go all the way to a last set decider.
Over 5.5 sets is an acceptable 1.67, the more risky over 6.5 3.25. Having been caught out by a set yesterday, I’ll play it conservatively and go for over 5.5 sets.
2024 WC Darts Friday Evening Tip: 1 point over 5.5 sets @ 1.67 with SpreadEx, BET365
2024 WC Darts Friday Evening Tip: 1 point Bunting +1.5 sets to win @ 1.83 with Fitzdares
Michael Smith vs. Chris Dobey
Dobey is giving Bunting a run for his money regarding best player of the tournament so far. Averages of 103 and 102 in his opening matches and no less than thirty two 180s. That is from just forty six legs played, a rate of 0.695 per leg. Ridiculous.
Dobey has lost four of his last six matches, so this run of excellent form is against a background of some inconsistency.
Smith Struggles
Michael Smith really struggled against Madars Razma. He won 4-1 but it was all torment for him as Razzmatazz varied his pace of play. It was like watching a bowler in Cricket trying to bamboozle the batsman with varying pace.
It worked up to a point, but the problem was, Razma played better when he upped his pace, but so did Smith. Eventually Smith just got his head down and played darts rather than huffing and puffing.
Smith has won seven of his last ten matches, but it is fair to say that Dobey is playing better. Smith will be much happier with the pace of play tonight and I do not expect Dobey to try any tactical slowing of play. He doesn’t need to. He can go toe to toe with Smith and win.
Their H2H record is 6-5 to Dobey and 4-2 on TV. More importantly, it is 4-1 to Dobey in 2023. I like the way Dobey is playing right now while Smith is making it all look like hard work. One of them is enjoying playing, the other is working hard.
Chris Dobey is the marginal 1.95 favourite with Smith 2.00.
