2024 WC Darts Monday Afternoon Preview & Tips

After a night off, we are back in action at the Ally Pally today. Luke Littler gave us a winner on Saturday to keep us ticking over. The quarter finals begin soon and James Punt is on the case. Check out his 2024 WC Darts Monday Afternoon previews and tips below.

Chris Dobey vs. Rob Cross

A great match to start the day’s action. We are on Rob Cross to win this quarter at 3.75 and I must admit, I didn’t expect him to be facing the tournament’s form player in the quarter final.

Chris Dobey has been in sensational form, hitting three ton plus averages (TA 102.33) and dropping just four sets to some good opponents. Michael Smith averaged 102 against him in the fourth round and didn’t win a set.

A-Game

Dobey’s 180 per leg rate is 0.39 and he has checked out at 40.67%. He has won six of his last ten matches, but he is playing so much better than he was in the Grand Slam when he was inconsistent. He has played his A-game in all three matches so far and if he keeps it up, he will be hard to beat.

Dobey has only reached this stage once before and he lost that quarter final, last year, 0-5 to MVG. He did have a problem facing MVG back then, but Dobey has blossomed as a player in 2023. He may not have enjoyed too much success in the Premier League, but it matured him as a player. Hollywood is a dad now too and everything is falling into place.

Voltage Under Radar

Rob Cross is flying under the radar so far. He had a poor second round match but since then he has improved and has a tournament average of 96.33. That is skewed by an 89 average in his first match, and in his last two he has averaged 101 and 98.

Cross has had the easier passage to get here and has only dropped two sets, but we haven’t seen the best of him yet. His doubling has been good, with a combined checkout rate of 45% and he has hit the maximums at a rate of 0.27 per leg.

More Experienced

Cross has much more big match experience than Dobey. He won this in 2018 and he has won a total of four ranked majors and been runner up in another four, including the recent Grand Slam. Cross has also only played in one quarter final here, winning it 5-4 against Dimitri van den Bergh on the way to winning the title in 2018.

Dobey has only reached one final, this year’s non-ranking Masters, where he beat Rob Cross. He has lost three ranking major semi-finals and lost seven ranking major quarter finals. He has quite a bit of scar tissue, but he is a better player in 2023.

Cross has the edge in terms of big match experience and winning them, Dobey has been playing a little better. Their H2H record is very close with Dobey being 8-7 up and 3-0 in 2023. On TV it is 2-2 and Dobey won their only other World Championship encounter, a 4-2 fourth round win last year.

Dobey Just Fav

The market has Chris Dobey as the very marginal 1.91 favourite, with Rob Cross 1.95. They are very closely matched, both averaging just over 96 in 2023, and it is no surprise the market is finding it hard to split them. I did expect Dobey to be shorter given how well he has played so far and because he was 3-0 in 2023.

As we are on Cross for the quarter, I am happy to hedge against that bet and back Dobey. I expect a close one, perhaps the full nine sets.

2024 WC Darts Monday Afternoon Tip: 1 point Chris Dobey to win @ 1.91 with Hills

2024 WC Darts Monday Afternoon Tip: 1 point over 7.5 sets @ 1.91 with Ladbrokes

Luke Littler vs. Brendan Dolan

Littler is getting all the headlines, but Dolan has knocked out two World Champions so far and arguably been one of the best players in the tournament.

It is rare for Dolan to smash in huge averages and beat other players up, but he is a specialist in hanging around and nicking legs with tidy combination out shots. He can be getting outscored but still win. Indeed he lost more legs that he won vs. Mansell and Price, but he was the victor in both matches.

Dolan has never gone beyond the quarter final here, losing 1-5 to Nathan Aspinall in 2019. He has won four major quarter finals in his time but he has played in seventy three ranked majors.

180s

Dolan’s tournament average is 94.7, Littler’s 98.7. Dolan is checking out at 45%, Littler 41% but when it comes to 180s per leg it is 0.36 for Littler and just 0.09 for Dolan. It looks a safe bet that Littler will hit the most 180s and he has only been dry in the 180 department in a single set across his four matches.

This has a bit of the Tortoise vs. the Hare about it. Littler has the superior firepower while Dolan is a grinder, a hanger on with the ability to frustrate and eventually over run his opponents.

Slow Dolan

Dolan is also a player who can play slow. We saw Littler’s worst performance so far was against Andrew Gilding, another slow player.

Dolan has sped up in recent years, but he can still be quite deliberate and take his time when it suits him. That may frustrate young Littler, who clearly likes a fast paced game, and a kebab.

Littler is the 1.18 favourite, with Dolan 5.00. That is understandable. Littler has dropped only one set against each of his three seeded opponents and we should expect something similar.

2024 WC Darts Monday Afternoon Tip: 0.5 point Luke Littler to win 5-1 @ 4.50 with Unibet

Under 7.5 sets was a bet at 1.61 but that has now been slashed to 1.45 and there is very little in the way of value in this match.

-JamesPunt