2024 WC Darts Semi-Finals Previews & Tips – JP
2024 WC Darts Semi-Finals Previews & Tips
It was another exciting night of darts on Monday. Scott Williams started it off by knocking out an off colour Green Machine. Luke Humphries then dispatched Dave Chisnall and he looked like he was almost back to his best. Four men remain in the running now, check out James Punt’s 2024 WC Darts Semi-Finals previews and tips below.
Having two unseeded semi-finalists is unusual, but it also happened last year. They both lost. Could we see the first unseeded finalist since Simon Whitlock in 2010?
Rob Cross vs. Luke Littler
Rob Cross was the last player to have won the World Championship as his first ranking major title. Luke Littler could be the next.
Rob Cross has won eight of his last ten matches. The two he lost were to Luke Humphries and the other Luke Woodhouse. He must be delighted to be facing another Luke, or will it be a case of third time Lukey?
After a slow start, Cross has been in good form, his tournament average is 97.5, his checkout rate 48% and his 180 hit rate is 0.265 per leg. All good stuff.
Cross is a former World Champion, a four time major champion and the winner of nine TV major semi-finals. His only semi-final loss came in the 2017 Players Championship finals. He has a lot of big match experience and a lot of success.
Winning Machine
Luke Littler has won nine of his last ten matches, is averaging 100.6 in this tournament, checking out at 44.4% and hitting 180s at 0.386 per leg. He has won the Junior World Championship and the Youth World Championship. His experience is only of winning, albeit at a lower level.
He has already proven that he has the playing ability to match anyone in the game, but that doesn’t mean he is unbeatable. Nobody is unbeatable.
Littler’s lack of these big, long matches is both a strength and a weakness. Littler has very little in the way of scar tissue. Yes, he loses the occasional match but not in his Championship matches.
However, If we get a long, close match, Littler is in uncharted waters. We don’t know how he will hold up physically and mentally.
We do know that Cross can operate very well in long matches and under the most severe pressure, as we saw yesterday when he came from 0-4 down, to beat Chris Dobey 5-4.
Hard To Call
This is a very hard match to call. It comes down to whether you believe Littler will win. He has the ability to win, we know that, but if Cross can make it a proper match, and Littler has not had one yet, how will cope mentally? Will his concentration hold up?
Littler has only lost four sets. He beat Christian Kist 3-0 but dropped a set to Gilding, Campbell, Van Barneveld and Dolan. In those four matches, it was always the penultimate set that he lost. A sign that his concentration was waning, or that he just took his foot off the gas when in total control?
Littler An Uneasy Fav
Luke Littler is the 1.73 favourite but his odds are drifting out while Cross is the 2.20 outsider and is attracting the money.
Cross won his World Championship semi-final 6-5 against MVG, with both players averaging over 100. It was a very close match against an MVG in his prime.
Based only on the fact that Cross has passed this test before, against one of the greatest players in history, means he gets the nod. If Littler beats him, then we know that he is indeed heading for greatness.
2024 WC Darts Semi-Finals Tip: 1 point Rob Cross to win @ 2.20 with SpreadEx, Betfred
Luke Humphries vs. Scott Williams
I can’t see many people having the unseeded Scott Williams on their World Championship betting slips. Littler will have been backed, but Williams is the bigger surprise in reaching the semi-final.
His tournament average is just 93.4, a little better than his 2023 seasonal average of 91.4. He has not got here by playing consistently great stuff. He has lost eight sets.
What he has done, is play against players who have made it easy for him. The highest average of any of his five opponents was 94.8 and his opponents three dart average has been 93.04.
Hard Work At Times
Humphries has made hard work of some his matches, but he has prevailed and seen off averages of 97.38 and 98.66 in the last two rounds. His opponent’s three dart average has been 94.85 across his four matches. It may not sound like a big difference, but Humphries has had to win harder matches to get here.
Humphries is now a three time major winner, he has won seventeen matches in a row, his win rate in 2023 was 77% and he even managed to hit his first ever ton plus average at Ally Pally last night. He has found his A game at just the right time.
These two have met three times with Humphries winning two, including a 5-2 win in last year’s Grand Slam, their only TV match.
Williams Superior On Doubles
Their Tournament stats show Humphries has the higher average at 96.94, compared to 93.40 for Williams. It is Williams who has been much better on the doubles with a checkout rate of 47.8% compared to Humphries’ 37.35%. They are very close in terms of 180 hitting, 0.357 for Luke and 0.332 for Scott.
Now that Humphries has found his scoring boots, I expect him to have the superior firepower, but if Williams can keep hitting the doubles so well, he will win legs and pick up sets.
I expect that Humphries will be too good for Williams, especially in the long format. Humphries is fit and used to playing long matches on TV. He is used to having to play three matches a day on stage on the Euro Tour. Luke has proven stamina. He can keep his concentration up for long periods.
MVG Poor
Willams’ eight sets against MVG will have been the longest match he has played, and he won, which is a positive sign, but let’s be honest, MVG was poor. He had one of his nightmares on the outer ring, missing twenty seven doubles and giving Williams every chance to win, which he did, but MVG was losing to most players playing like he did last night.
Williams is likely to have fewer opportunities tonight and he doesn’t really have the firepower to create enough, compared to Humphries.
Cool Hand Hot Fav
Humphries is the 1.17 favourite with Williams a 6.00 shot. He was 8.00 last night, so he has already made a mockery of the market, but it was MVG who was the reason for that. I expect Cool Hand Luke to be a more formidable opponent.
Of the last twenty semi-finals, no less than nine have ended 6-3. I can see that here. Williams’ doubling should win him sets but Humphries’ scoring will prevail.
2024 WC Darts Semi-Finals Tip: 1 point Luke Humphries to win 6-3 @ 6.00 with Betfred, Fitzdares
Humphries is very short in other markets. Covering a -2.5 set handicap is just 1.50. Under 9.5 sets is likely but the odds are just 1.36. The only other market I fancy is total 180s. Both are hitting them well, but will the match be long enough to cover the over 23.5 line?
Their 180 per leg hit rate across their three previous matches has been 0.70 per leg. They both play at a good pace and I can see them bouncing off each other. One hits, the other hits and we could get hot spells of high scoring.
Luke Humphries is ranked 4th for 180s per leg in the last 12 months at 0.33, Williams 32nd at 0.26. Both players are exceeding that so far and in one match they hit thirteen in eleven legs, so it looks like they could well drag each other up. I’ll take the chance that the treble 20 is in for a pounding.
