2024 World Grand Prix Final Preview

Just the one match tonight. That must be a bit rubbish if you have a ticket and Humphries wins 6-0. Maybe De Decker can make a match of it, but Ryan Joyce did just that last night and still lost 5-0. Check out James’ 2024 World Grand Prix Final preview below.

Luke Humphries vs. Mike de Decker

It is probably worth mentioning that Luke Humphries is the current World number 1, the World Champion and defending Grand Prix Champion. He has now reached the final of the last six ranked Majors, winning four of the last five. Just in case anyone thinks that Luke Littler is the best player in the world. He isn’t. Luke Humphries is.

Mike de Decker is having a breakthrough season, winning his first title in the summer and now reaching his first ranking Major final. However, according to the betting market, he may as well stay in his hotel room tonight. Luke Humphries is the 1.17 favourite and De decker a dismissive 6.00.

Eleven wins In A Row

Luke Humphries is on a run of eleven straight wins, but he has lost 28% of his matches in 2024, so De Decker is not without hope, but he is up against the best player in the world, and a player who warmed up for the final by beating Ryan Joyce 5-0.

Joyce averaged over 94, and that is great scoring in this format. The problem was that Humphries averaged 100.30. Only Ross Smith’s 101.79 in the first round was better, and that was just best of three sets. Humphries did it over five sets. That is what he can do, operate at the highest level and do it all night.

That is what the really great players have done and we have to put Humphries in the same bracket as Taylor and Van Gerwen in their pomp.

Cool Hand Leads H2H

These two have actually played each other a lot, this will be their thirteenth meeting. Humphries has won eight and De Decker four. Ten of their matches were at Development Tour level and at senior level, the record is 1-1, but they have never met in a Major or on a stage before. The stats give De Decker more of a chance than the betting market does.

The scoring in the Grand Prix finals has changed over the years. For the last ten years, it was first to five sets and we didn’t see a win to love. Half of them ended 5-2. Between 2007 and 2013, and 1999 and 2000, it was first to six sets, Four of those ended 6-3, two 6-1, none went to a deciding set. Only one was won to nil.

In the last ten years, a deciding set was only required twice, and history suggests that we shouldn’t expect a close match. Last year, Humphries beat Gerwyn Price 5-2 in the final.

Humphries Too Short

Humphries is too short at 1.17, but to be honest, backing De Decker would very likely just be a good value loser. Cool Hand was irresistible last night, nobody was beating him in that sort of form. There is no guarantee he can repeat a ton plus average, but he is capable, he is the best player in the world remember.

It would seem to be about the margin of victory. Can Decker land a few blows and get a set or two on the board? There is no real pressure on him, his job is done. He is into the top 32 and he has won a place at the Grand Slam of Darts.

The crowd will be on the side of the underdog and De Decker has been a hit with his walk on song. They were all singing along, perhaps just happy not to be bombarded with more techno themes. For some reason, crowds rarely take to Humphries, until he hits a 170 or a nine darter, so De Decker does have that in his favour, but Humphries has seen it all before.

Finding any betting angle is tough. I will take my traditional stab at the correct score in the final, but is there anything else to take a chance on?

Big 180 Hitters

Both players are big 180 hitters, Humpries ranked fifth, De Decker 6th for 180s per leg over the last twelve months. That suggests that we should see plenty, but it depends on how many legs of darts get played. In a best of eleven leg match, you know you are getting at least six, but no more than eleven.

In this format we could have as few as eighteen legs, but as many as fifty five. You are effectively having a double bet, one on the length of the match, and it is a wide spread, as well as the strike rate of the two players on the 180s. That is too tricky for me.

The market makes over 8.5 sets an even money shot, so all the computations are saying that we should see eight or nine sets. Over the last ten years when it was just first to five sets, 60% ended under 7.5 sets. In the nine years the final was first to six sets, 55.5% were over 8.5, 44.5% under. History does suggest that we should see a 6-2, 6-3 sort of scoreline.

2024 World Grand Prix Final Tip: 0.5 point Humphries to win 6-2 @ 5.50

2024 World Grand Prix Final Tip: 0.5 point Humphries to win 6-3 @ 5.50 both with Fitzdares

-JamesPunt