2024 World Matchplay Saturday Preview

It is going to be a hectic week for James Punt. He has already posted his outright preview and tips for this event, check that out here. He’ll also have daily match previews, his 2024 World Matchplay Saturday tips are below.

Gerwyn Price vs. Daryl Gurney

Neither player can be said to be in great form, both having lost five of their last ten matches. Price lost to Plaisier, Boulton, Van Duijvenbode, Van der Wal and Razma. Hardly an A to Z of darting greats.

He has been missing tournaments, including the World Cup. To pull out at very short notice to undergo medical tests, only to turn out for the Players Championship events a few days later, is very confusing.

He was interviewed this week and said that he took time out to have some tests on an unknown ailment that is affecting his health. Price wasn’t forthcoming about specific symptoms but did mention that heat can have a negative influence on how he feels.

Iceman May Melt

That may be a problem if it gets hot on the Winter Garden stage, but being first match on, and with cool ambient temperatures, maybe not. However, these are longer matches and the TV lights are powerful heat generators. If not for this match, I would bear it in mind if you were thinking about backing Price for the title.

The gist of the interview was that darts is not his main focus at the moment. He needs to find out what is making him unwell and his head is not in the best place to be able to play his best.

Daryl Gurney reached the final of PC11 a few weeks ago, his first final for years, but played a stinker in the final and lost in the deciding leg. A confidence boost, or more frustration? Losing four of his next six matches suggests the latter.

Price, ill or not, is playing better more often than Gurney, but he is not, and has not been, at the top of his game for a while. He is scoring as well as ever, without the consistency of old, but his win rate in 2024 is only 59% (65% for Gurney). Yes, Price played a lot of Premier League matches against the very best players, but even since then, he has found winning difficult.

Close Matches

These two have had some real ding dongs in the past, some close matches. When they used to play in the PL, backing the draw was a very profitable strategy. The rivalry is less intense now, but Gurney will likely be up for this.

Price usually came out the winner in their matches, he is 11-3, but they had no less than four PL draws. It was 5-4 to Price in the 2021 World Championship quarter final and seven of their eight best of eleven leg matches went over 9.5 legs. They have only met once in the last three years, a 7-3 win for Price in a Players Championship semi-final.

Price is the 1.38 favourite, Gurney 3.30. I have to say that the odds look wrong. Price is too short, and Gurney too big. However, Gurney’s recent form is not convincing enough to back with a straight win bet. I will take the cover of the handicap and try and get the tournament going with an opening match win.

2024 World Matchplay Saturday Tip: 1 point Daryl Gurney to win +2.5 legs @ 2.10 with Betfair

Jonny Clayton vs. Raymond Van Barneveld

Both players have won a Players Championship title this year, but Clayton’s was just last week, and very impressive it was too. It has taken a year to get back to his best following the death of his father, which happened shortly after last year’s final, which Clayton lost to Aspinall, under an understandably difficult situation.

The Ferret has been heading in the right direction for a while and to finally get back in the winner’s circle will have set him up nicely for this tournament. He says that he is happy with his game and that he is enjoying playing again. That is a big positive.

Steady RVB

Barney just carries on being Barney. He is a steady player, still plays at an above average level and has the occasional moment of excellence. He is no pushover, but he may need to be at his best to get a result here. Since 2014, Barney has played in six Matchplays, played nine matches and won three first round matches only. He will give Clayton a match at the very least.

Their H2H record is very small. They have met just twice and it is 1-1. They have never met on stage before.

Clayton is the 1.67 favourite and that is good enough for me. He has won eleven of his last twelve matches, Barney six of his last ten.

2024 World Matchplay Saturday Tip: 1 point Jonny Clayton to win @ 1.67 with SpreadEx

Luke Humphries vs. Ricardo Pietreczko

This is a nice draw for Humphries. He starts his campaign against the very much out of form Ricardo Pietreczko. The diminutive German has only won two of his last ten matches, a 6-0 win over Moritz Hilger on the Euro Tour and a 6-4 win over Leighton Bennett, both seeing him average under 90.

He has only averaged over 90 in two of his last ten matches. He is the weakest player in the competition, and he is making his debut.

Humphries has won six of his last ten matches, averaging below 95 in four of them, and that is not his best, but it will be enough to win this. Humphries has played in three previous Matchplays and won two of his first round matches. A 10-3 win over Wade in 2021, and a 10-2 win over De Sousa last year. He averaged over a ton in both.

Dominant H2H

Their H2H record is 4-0 to Humphries, but their matches have been surprisingly close. They last met in the World Championship last December and Pikachu took it to a deciding set. Their other match in 2023 was a 6-5 win for Humphries on the Euro Tour. There was another 6-5 in a Players Championship match in 2022.

The only easy win was a 7-2 victory in a Players Championship semi-final in 2022, and that was the only match where Pietreczko averaged below 90. That may be more representative of what we should get in this match.

Humphries is the 1.20 favourite and Pietreczko 6.50. Hopefully Humphries can wrap it up fairly quickly. The under total legs bet would have paid out in all three of Humphries’ previous first round matches here.

2024 World Matchplay Saturday Tip: 1 point under 15.5 legs @ 2.00 with Livescorebet

Nathan Aspinall vs. Luke Woodhouse

The big question here has to be, will Aspinall be fit enough to play a best of nineteen leg match? He says that he is playing in pain and that his throwing arm is f**ked big time. His recent form suggests that it is not stopping him playing fairly decent stuff.

He has won six of his last ten matches but his seasonal average is 94.52, and of those last ten, he has been under it eight times. That suggests he is not quite firing on all cylinders. Indeed, he has averaged under 90 in half of them. If he is hurting, a long match could be a struggle.

Luke Woodhouse is making his debut. He has had a tour card since 2018 and the fact that he is making his debut tells us that he is having his best season ever. He is up to 34th in the world rankings and he will have one eye on making the top 32 and all the advantages that will bring.

A couple of matches won here, and he would probably be in. Woody has won just four of his last ten matches and he has not shown any great consistency of late. There have been ton plus averages and sub 90s.

First Big Stage Meeting

Their H2H record is 4-2 to Aspinall. They have never met on stage and they have not met since 2021. Clearly, Woodhouse has improved since then. Not massively, but he has got better.

Given doubts over Aspinall’s fitness over a longer format, it makes sense to find a way to oppose him. That Woodhouse’s form may have tailed off a little recently makes things more difficult. A few weeks ago it may have been a straight back on Woodhouse, but he is not so easy to back right now.

All of their previous matches were pretty close and scoring wise in 2024, there is not a great difference between the two. I can see this being fairly close, so long as Woodhouse plays reasonably well. Aspinall is a big stage player, and injured or not, he will give it his best.

2024 World Matchplay Saturday Tip: 1 point over 16.5 legs @ 2.00 with Betfair

-JamesPunt