2024 World Matchplay Wednesday Preview

James Punt landed two more winners from his three tips last night but it was heartbreak for Jonny Clayton. At least we still have one outright contender still standing. James’ 2024 World Matchplay Wednesday previews and tips are below.

Punt’s matchplay Ponderings

Our outright selections suffered some pain in the first two rounds. Littler lost to MVG in round 1, and Jonny Clayton didn’t have the same edge that he showed in the first round and he went down to Dimitri van den Bergh last night.

The good news is that Ross Smith produced a masterclass to beat Gerwyn Price. It was a very sluggish start for Smudger, but once he found his scoring boots, you had to feel sorry for Price. Smith now faces James Wade in Thursday’s quarter final.

Before we get there, there are three more second round matches to wrap up. We had two from three last night and Bunting just needed one more leg to get the full house, but he faltered in the dying legs, going down 11-7.

Krzysztof Ratajski vs. Andrew Gilding

Not the most glamourous of the second round matches. Ratajski was a surprising 10-2 winner over Dave Chisnall in round one. Andrew Gilding was a comfortable 10-5 winner over Peter Wright.

Ratajski has lost six of his last ten matches, but his scoring has been OK. He hit six 95+ averages and just one sub 90. Gilding has won six of his last ten matches, but his scoring has been weak, with five sub 90s.

Ratajski has lost three matches in deciding legs, and he is not miles away from reasonable form. Gilding is much more inconsistent and his list of victims is not that impressive. Wins over Tricole, King, Lennon, De Zwaan and Wright are nothing to get excited about, but his other win was more significant, a 6-4 win over Ratajski two weeks ago.

Gilding Leads H2H

Their overall H2H record is 4-1 to Gilding. Ratajski has lost their last four meetings and his only win was back in 2019. And of course…there was that very recent win.

Despite the H2H record, Ratajski is being backed, and is the 1.50 favourite. Ratajski is scoring better but losing more. Is he another victim of Gilding’s weirdness? I have a theory that Gilding just freaks some players out. His strange board address, the thumb and general air of ……being unusual, just knocks some players out of their stride. He certainly isn’t a fast player and that can be enough to unsettle some players.

Form vs H2H

This is a classic form vs. H2H record. I tend towards recent form, but that recent win for Gilding over Ratajski is recent form, and very pertinent recent form.

Gilding is a major winner, Ratajski regarded as a better floor player. Gilding’s major win was a real outlier. He doesn’t have a great bank of big stage wins, a UK Open semi in 2015, the UK Open title in 2023 and a World Grand Prix quarter final. In four appearances here he has never got beyond the second round. Ratajski has played four second round matches in the World Matchplay and won two, making a quarter final and a semi-final.

The H2H record and recent win for Gilding swings it for me…and the odds.

2024 World Matchplay Wednesday Tip: 1 point Andrew Gilding to win @ 2.75 with Betfred, Livescorebet, SpreadEx

Rob Cross vs. Ryan Searle

Rob Cross survived six match darts in his 13-12 win over Gian van Veen. It was a good match, but he should have lost, despite his 100.42 average. Still, a bit of luck never goes amiss. Cross has now won seven of his last ten matches and he has hit five ton plus averages across his last ten. He is averaging 97.49 in 2024 and he does so fairly consistently.

Ryan Searle beat Damon Heta 10-4 and averaged 101.01. It was an impressive performance and it means he has won six of his last ten matches. Searle has not been as consistent scoring wise as Cross, but he is not a long way off on performance.

Their H2H record is 7-3 to Cross, Cross won their only match this year 6-2. A lot of their form is old and in the last two years it is 2-2.

Cross Statistically Better

Cross is the better player in most statistical metrics and given his better form and better H2H record, he deserves to be favourite. He is the 1.62 favourite, Searle 2.50. Those odds are hard to argue with.

The 180 market looks a bit light on value. Neither player has been banging them in at any great rate. Cross is 0.24 per leg across his last ten, Searl 0.20. That is below par compared to both players 12 month rate.

I am never keen to get involved with Rob Cross matches, and this is no exception. No bet.

2024 World Matchplay Wednesday Tip: No Bet

Michael van Gerwen vs. Joe Cullen

Cullen was a rare loser for us in the first round. He averaged 100 in a 10-4 win over Brendan Dolan. That was on the back of losing nine of his previous ten matches. Nobody saw that coming. Was it a flash in the pan, or has he rediscovered some form? That is impossible to say.

Van Gerwen ended the hopes of Luke Littler with a 10-6 win. Both players averaged over 100, but Littler lacked a certain spark and MVG took full advantage. MVG has won seven of his last ten matches, but he is not showing any great consistency. He will be aware that the draw has opened up and that he has a decent path to the semi-final.

Hard To Call

It is hard to make a decision about this match. Cullen had been bang out of form for some time before his win the other night. MVG has been in and out scoring wise and is not a solid proposition anymore.

Their H2H record is 26-10 to Van Gerwen. No great surprise there. They have met once in 2024 and MVG won that 6-0 on the Euro Tour in April. He has won their last five matches in a row but four of their last seven have required a deciding leg.

They met here at the same stage here in 2022 and that was an 11-5 win for MVG. Something similar would be no surprise. Van Gerwen will have his tail up after seeing off Littler, Cullen is much harder to call, but one Swallow does not make a summer, so maybe we shouldn’t read too much into one good performance after a period of poor play.

MVG is the 1.33 favourite, Cullen 3.60. I will take a chance that Van Gerwen can break Cullen’s confidence at some point and win by a margin.

2024 World Matchplay Wednesday Tip: 1 point MVG to win -2.5 legs @ 1.75 with Betfair, Fitzdares

Michael Smith vs. Chris Dobey

Michael Smith looked good in his 10-5 win over Gary Anderson. He was never under any pressure and bossed the game, averaging 102. That ended a run of a few iffy performances and will have settled him into the event.

Dobey was less impressive in his 10-7 win over Ritchie Edhouse. It was a fairly underwhelming performance from Edhouse, but he was still able to stick with Dobey and it was 5-5 at the second interval. Dobey averaged 93.94 and it was an OK performance, but compared to a lot of the other players, it was ordinary.

Hollywood cannot be feeling particularly confident coming into this match. He has lost seven of his last ten matches, while Smith has won seven of his.

Dobey Leads H2H

Their H2H record is a surprise 7-5 to Dobey. These two met at the same stage here last year, and Dobey won 11-7. He also beat Smith 4-0 at the World Championship, which was their last match played. He has won five of their last six and won both of their last best of 21 leg matches 11-7, both played last year.

Michael Smith is the 1.73 favourite, with Dobey 2.23. Fair enough based on their relative first round matches. Dobey is out of form but does have a very good recent record against Smith, and in these longer matches.

Dobey has lost seven of his last ten, but he lost three despite hitting a ton+ average. He has lost four of his last ten in deciding legs. Maybe his form is not quite as bad as it looks. Likewise, Smith came into this on the back of four very flat performances and it is not a given that he repeats the display he put in against Anderson.

Just in case lightning strikes thrice, I’ll have a tickle on another 11-7 for Dobey.

2024 World Matchplay Wednesday Tip: 0.5 point Dobey to win 11-7 @ 13.00 generally available

-JamesPunt