2025 Abu Dhabi GP Qualifying Preview

Now, it is time for James Punt’s 2025 Abu Dhabi GP Qualifying preview. James has already posted his outright betting preview and tips, click here for those.

2025 Abu Dhabi GP Qualifying

Judging the form going into this important qualifying session is a bit tricky. Even after three practice sessions, the track is still evolving. The lap times kept on coming down, and having a new set of softs as late in the session as possible was paying off, and that will continue to be the case later.

There have been some drivers who have been quick, pretty much all the time. Maybe they ended a session down the time sheet as they did their flying lap early, but when they did it, it was quick. Getting your timing right today is going to be vital, and there is the possibility of a yellow flag ruining things, especially if it is late in the session.

Lando Norris has been right up there in all three sessions and was just 0.004s slower than Russell in FP3, but he set his time earlier than Russell. Max Verstappen has been slower than Norris in every session, but still right up there. He is not entirely happy with the car, so there could be a little more pace in it.

Russell Improving

George Russell has improved session by session and was fastest by a whisker in FP3. Is he really in contention, or was it just a good lap at the right time? I suspect it is the latter. Russell has had two pole positions in 2025, but his pole position in Singapore was his only top three in the last thirteen Grand Prix. He has been fourth in four of the last five qualifying sessions and I think that might be a more realistic expectation, but the team think they do have good one lap pace, so he might be closer.

Oscar Piastri sat out FP1 yesterday for the rookie’s test and he has been on the back foot ever since. He was on pole in Qatar last weekend, but that was his only front row in the last eight GP weekends. He got the conditions he needed to be really fast last weekend, and he isn’t quite getting them here.

It looks to me that Norris is favourite to get pole today, so long as he puts it all together. I thought his best lap today wasn’t perfect, but the McLaren was very fast in the final sector, which suggests it is looking after the tyres very well. It allowed Norris to still be very quick despite a bit of a slide in one corner. After Norris it looks like a bun fight between Verstappen, Russell and Piastri, and maybe in that order.

Interlopers

There are a few possible interlopers. The Sauber has been quick all weekend. They may have ended up 11th and 13th in FP3 but they went early for their flying laps. I expect both cars to make Q3, or at least they have the pace to do so.

Hulkenberg was 4th in qualifying here last year so if he hooks up a good lap he could do something similar. His best qualifying in GP qualifying in 2025 is just tenth, so maybe I am being a touch optimistic. The fact that Bortoleto has been right up there as well, suggests that the car is good here. He has qualified 8th twice this season and he can be around there again today.

The Haas was 4th in qualifying here last year, with Hulkenberg at the wheel, and they have obviously kept the recipe because they have been fast again this weekend. Ocon sat out FP1 and was a bit off the pace yesterday, but he was up in 6th today, with Bearman seventh. They have not managed to get two cars into Q3 all year, but I wouldn’t be surprised if they did it later.

Alonso Has Pace

Alonso was  quick today, in 4th place to go with his 9th in FP2, having sat out FP1. Lance Stroll may even make it out of Q1. Alonso looks very likely to make it three Q3 appearances in a row to end the 2025 season.

With the likes of Sauber and Haas being fast, some of the bigger names could be pushed down the order. Ferrari being the obvious candidates. Hamilton crashed out today and was only 14th in FP2. Leclerc is the better of the two drivers and he was 8th in FP2 and FP3.  He has only failed to get into Q3 once this season, but it has been nip and tuck in the last two weekends. Hamilton could be looking at his third Q1 exit in a row.

The Racing Bulls are also getting squeezed. Lawson has been slow all weekend and was joined in the Q1 exit zone by Hadjar in FP3, but he had been top ten yesterday.

2025 Abu Dhabi GP Qualifying Selections

Norris to be the fastest qualifier is odds on and I am not interested in that price, but I do expect him to do it. George Russell would be a tempting each way bet at 12.00 if we were getting 1/5 the odds 1-3, but those odds are win only. One firm is going e/w the top three and I will have a small bet at slightly shorter odds.

2025 Abu Dhabi GP Qualifying Tip: 0.5 point George Russell to be the fastest qualifier @ 11.00 with Betvictor (e/w 1/5 the odds 1-3)

Neither team has done it in 2025 but I am going to back both Haas and Sauber to have both cars in Q3. Maybe it is an end of term frenzy, but the pace of both looks good.

2025 Abu Dhabi GP Qualifying Tip: 1 point both Haas to reach Q3 @ 2.75 with Ladbrokes

2025 Abu Dhabi GP Qualifying Tip: 1 point both Saubers to reach Q3 @ 4.50 with Ladbrokes

Match Betting

I have to oppose Ferrari.

2025 Abu Dhabi GP Qualifying Tip: 1 point Kimi Antonelli to beat Charles Leclerc @ 1.80 with Unibet

2025 Abu Dhabi GP Qualifying Tip: 1 point Nico Hulkenberg to beat Lewis Hamilton @ 2.00 with Ladbrokes

Back tomorrow for the last race day update of 2025.

-JamesPunt