2025 Abu Dhabi GP Raceday Preview

Now, it is time for James Punt’s 2025 Abu Dhabi GP Raceday preview. Qualifying didn’t go to plan, hopefully we can bounce back.

2025 Abu Dhabi GP Raceday

We had the qualifying session from hell yesterday. All five bets lost, but how they lost was the worst thing. Russell was just too slow and ended up in fourth, as I thought he might. Both Haas cars to reach Q3 was a bummer. The hard part was going to be getting Ocon into Q3, but he did just that. Bearman had been fast all weekend but come his flying lap on new softs in Q2, he was just too slow, missing out on Q3 by 0.007 seconds. Unbelievable.

Both Sauber’s to reach Q3? Not a problem for Bortoleto who finished in 7th. But Hulkenberg didn’t even make it out of Q1. It was a classic f**k up. The team held him back too long, let the tyres cool, put him out into traffic and that was that.

We also had Hulkenberg to beat Hamilton, and the Hamilton bit was spot on. He was out in Q1, again, but the Hulkenberg f**k up meant he was even slower than Hamilton. The final humiliation was Antonelli to beat Leclerc. Antonelli was quick in Q1, but he overheated his rear tyres in Q2 and went out, back in 14th place.

Tough Season

Just this race to go for a forgettable F1 season betting wise. It is the last race of the ground effect era and as the cars have converged over time, it has become increasingly hard for the drivers to follow the car in front and overtaking is very hard. The Qatar GP last week was memorable for McLaren’s blunder, but the actual race was a snooze fest. Today’s could be a repeat, for most of the field.

Of course, all eyes are on the three drivers at the front. Verstappen starts on pole, attempting to make it the eleventh pole sitter in a row to win the Abu Dhabi GP. He has to win to have any chance of winning the World Championship, but his reality is that winning is not enough. He needs Norris to drop out of the top three.

The problem is that he isn’t in control of Norris’ car. Verstappen could risk trying to crash the McLaren out of the race, but that could backfire in one more ways than one. But, if he can create a situation where somebody else might crash into Norris, or at least allow other cars to overtake Norris, then he could nick the Championship. The classic backing up the field tactic.

2016

Lewis Hamilton tried to do just that in the 2016 Abu Dhabi GP. He entered that weekend 12 points behind Nico Rosberg in the Drivers’ Championship, exactly the same position as Verstappen is in with Norris. The only difference this time is that we still have Oscar Piastri in the picture, albeit he is the outsider. Piastri needs to win the race and then hope for various scenarios for Norris and Verstappen. The bad news for the Aussie is that nobody has ever won this race from third on the grid.

In 2016 Hamilton qualified on pole position, from Rosberg in second place. Spooky. As the race was nearing its end with Hamilton leading Rosberg, Hamilton slowed down the pace which allowed Vettel and Verstappen to close right up on the back of Rosberg.

Hamilton was told to pick the pace up by the team, he refused to do so. Vettel overtook Verstappen and that might have saved Rosberg’s chances. Verstappen would have been reckless in his attempt to pass Rosberg, but as it was, Rosberg was able to hang on to second place. The backing the field up tactic had failed, narrowly.

Modified Track

The track has been modified since 2016 with some slow corners removed. That makes the backing up tactic even more difficult, but what else can Verstappen do? If he just drives off for a comfortable race win, Norris can breathe easy and take the title in cruise mode, unless his car breaks down or he has a crash etc.

Verstappen says that backing the field up is very difficult now, given the track changes, but you can bet the farm that is exactly what he will try and do. Red Bull will employ every weapon in their armoury to impede Norris. They have Yuki Tsunoda and while he starts a distant tenth, they will try and make sure they get him ahead of the McLaren at some point. Running a very long first stint and hope that leaves him ahead after McLaren pit? It is not straightforward, but they will try.

And then we have the Racing Bulls. The Red Bull junior team. Hadjar and Lawson. Will they be called upon to get involved, to try and slow Norris and help others to be able to pass him, at the pit stop if nothing else?

Norris only has a teammate to help him out, and that teammate is also trying to win the championship. Norris is flying solo.

Unusual Situation

How will it pan out? I don’t know. It is a very unusual situation. Normally F1 races are all about going flat out for victory, but today that cannot be the case. A lot has to come down to how Norris copes with it all, and perhaps more importantly, how his strategists cope with it all. Given how they screwed up in Qatar, it is hard to back them to call it right today.

We backed Verstappen to win the race in the preview, and he should do just that. We have backed Norris to win the Championship and hopefully that is what he will do, but he is going to have to put up with all sorts of nonsense. Red Bull know how to win, and to win at all costs.

I am not going to have any more involvement in the battle at the front, it is just too complicated. The fact that silly games are likely to be played, will ripple down the field. If we get Tsunoda and the Racing Bulls being sacrificed for Verstappen’s benefit, it makes it hard to say what is going the happen further down the field.

Hulk Needs Luck

Unfortunately, our other ante post bet for the race is Nico Hulkenberg to finish in the points. That looked in great shape right up to qualifying, which I covered earlier. He has a fast car, but starting from eighteenth? He needs a miracle to finish his 250th GP in the points. His team have really let him down.

Are there any bets worth the risk today? As I said, with all the potential for shenanigans at the front rippling down the field, maybe not.

It is not a great track for a come from behind charge, unless you are in a very fast car that is badly out of position, and we don’t really have that today. Hulkenberg has top 10 pace, but he is not in a rocket ship.

Hamilton is in a Ferrari that has top 5 pace and he is now used to starting from the back of the grid. He started 20th in Vegas and finished eighth, and he started eighteenth in Qatar and finished twelfth. On a track like this, I feel that he more likely to miss out on points this time. Certainly, odds of 1.90 make no appeal.

Oliver Bearman let us down yesterday but there is no doubting the cars pace. He has finished in the points in five of the last six races and the Haas is a car that usually has good race pace. Ahead of him is Tsunoda, who is likely to be sacrificed to help Verstappen. Hadjar is in a car that tends to be slower over a race distance, and he too may be used to help Max.

2025 Abu Dhabi GP Raceday Tip: 1 point Bearman to finish in the points @ 1.91 with Betfred

Match Betting

The Racing Bulls have tended to drop places from qualifying to the race. Today, they may be called into action to help their senior team. Alonso in the Aston Martin has a car that tends to have matching qualifying and race pace. He starts in sixth and while I wouldn’t be in a rush to back him for a top six finish at 2.25, I am happy to back him to beat Issak Hadjar in the Racing Bull. Alonso starts three places ahead of Hadjar and his pace has been more impressive in FP3 and qualifying.

2025 Abu Dhabi GP Raceday Tip: 1 point Alonso to beat Hadjar @ 1.72 with Ladbrokes

The second match bet is for Bortoleto to beat Antonelli. The Mercedes has been a strange car this weekend. Toto Wolff says that it has been on a knife edge and in qualifying yesterday, Antonelli failed to look after the rear tyres.

This is a rear limited track that tends to overheat the rears, so he is going to have to manage them today. He starts from fourteenth place. He is out of position and should make some progress, but he hasn’t been going particularly well so far.

The Sauber has been one of the better cars here this weekend. Qualifying seventh was about right for the Brazilian. That was his fifth Q3 appearance and in the other four, he has converted that into points and finished level with or better than his qualifying position.

2025 Abu Dhabi GP Raceday Tip: 1 point Bortoleto to beat Antonelli @ 1.83 with Ladbrokes

I am nothing if not stubborn and I am sticking with Sauber to get me some money this weekend. Hulkenberg has also been quick and he knew he had a great chance of a very good qualifying position yesterday, but the team did a very bad job of managing his final run in Q1.

The car will still be quick and Hulkenberg should be able to make some forward progress. Ladbrokes have put him in Group 4, along with the Racing Bull of Lawson, the Williams of Albon and the Aston Martin of Lance stroll.

Lawson was flattered by the likes of some faster cars underperforming, Hulkenberg amongst them. Albon in the Williams hasn’t shown much pace on a track which Willams have struggled on. Lance Stroll is not out of it but he isn’t in great form. I will back the best car to overcome starting last in the group.

2025 Abu Dhabi GP Raceday Tip: 1 point Nico Hulkenberg to win Group 4 @ 3.50 with Ladbrokes

Until next year, that is all for now.

-JamesPunt