2025 Australian GP Betting Preview

James Punt has already posted two bumper pre-season previews. Part 1 can be read here and Part 2 can be read here. The season starts this weekend in Melbourne and James is hoping to get off to a fast start, just like Ferrari’s Lewis Hamilton. Check out James’ 2025 Australian GP betting preview below.

2025 Australian GP

The Australian GP returns to its traditional slot as the seasonal opener. It is not ideal for those of us residing on the other side of the planet. Qualifying will be at 05.00 am on Saturday and the race 04.00 am on Sunday for those of us in the UK.

The 2025 Australian GP Track

The Albert Park circuit is a temporary track, built on the streets of Melbourne’s Albert Park. It is not an out and out street circuit like Singapore or Monaco, and recent modifications have made it faster and more flowing than it used to be. It used to be a real point and squirt track, all about stability under braking and good traction out of the slow corners. During the Covid lockdown, the track was resurfaced for the first time since it held its first race in 1996.

The layout of the track was also altered. Turns 9 and 10 were completely redesigned. Gone was the heavy braking chicane, replaced with a faster, flowing section of track making it faster than its predecessor. It was designed to create better racing.

Reprofiled Corners

Seven more corners were reprofiled, the track widened in places all aimed to allow for more overtaking. It is a better track for the racing, but it has made it a bit more ‘normal’. It has lost its old character, but with the cars getting bigger and wider, something had to be done.

The pit lane was also widened allowing for the speed limit to be increased to 80kph, reducing the time penalty for making a pit stop. The track is now one of the fastest on the calendar.

Being a temporary street circuit, the track lacks grip at the start of the weekend and there is a lot of evolution as the grip levels improve. The track also features no less than four DRS zones, again all designed to promote overtaking.

Since the 2022 redesign, Ferrari have won twice, with one win each for Leclerc and Sainz. Max Verstappen won the other for Red Bull. Ferrari have won four of the last six races in Melbourne. That is unusual given that Mercedes and Red Bull have dominated since 2014.

The track modifications were big enough to consider the pre-2022 form to be a bit redundant.

Driver and Team Records from 2022

In 2022 it was Charles Leclerc on pole position, followed by the Red Bulls of Verstappen and Perez. Leclerc’s teammate, Carlos Sainz, only qualified in ninth place after he was affected by Alonso crashing and causing a red flag.

The race was won by Leclerc with a 20 second margin over Perez. George Russell completed the podium. Verstappen retired with a fuel leak and Sainz crashed out on lap 1. McLaren finished fifth and sixth and there were points for Alpine, Alpha Tauri Alfa Romeo and Williams, with Albon coming from 20th on the grid to finish tenth with his famous last lap pit stop.

2023

2023 saw Max Verstappen start from pole position, followed by the Mercedes of Russell and Hamilton. Aston Martin had both cars in the top six with the best Ferrari fifth with Carlos Sainz. Leclerc was seventh and Williams’ Albon in eighth, Alpine’s Gasly ninth, with Hulkenberg in tenth for Haas.

The race was won by Verstappen but he had been overtaken by Russell. The Mercedes driver then suffered engine failure and retired. Hamilton finished second, just 0.179s behind Verstappen. The two Aston Martins finished 3rd and 4th.

Perez was fifth, Norris sixth, Hulkenberg seventh, Piastri eighth, with Zhou and Tsunoda ninth and tenth. The race featured a huge pile up on Lap 56 which caused a red flag and a restart. Sainz had finished 4th but was given a penalty and was reclassified 12th.

Last Year

Last year saw Verstappen start from pole, but quickly retire with brake failure. Hamilton was another early retirement with a rare power unit failure and Russell was a very late retirement when he crashed. The race was won by Carlos Sainz, who had started from second on the grid. Charles Leclerc was second and Norris third. Piastri was fourth.

It is a race that often produces some drama, whether that be caused by poor reliability or more often by crashes and accidents.

The track has seen quite a bit of attrition from front runners in the last three years, which is unusual. This was always a high attrition race when it was the opening race of the season and reliability was poor, but reliability is so rarely a problem these days, it is unusual.

Accidents are often a feature as the design of the track does mean the cars get very close in the first few corners and there is a high risk of some contact.

Norris Likes It Here

Drivers with good records include Norris who has always finished in the top 6 in relatively uncompetitive equipment (the race last year was before McLaren had their definitive upgrade). Charles Leclerc has a win, a second place and a pole.

Verstappen has one win and two poles, but he suffered two DNFs. Carlos Sainz was the other winner, but he too has suffered ill fortune with a self-induced DNF and a penalty which cost him fourth place in 2023.

The Aston Martins have gone well here in the last two races with two double points finishes for Alonso and Stroll. Nico Hulkenberg has back to back top 10’s as does Tsunoda. Alex Albon has shown some good pace here in the Williams, but just the one tenth place to show for it.

On the negative side, Lewis Hamilton has had to play second fiddle to George Russell while Mercedes teammates.

Over his sixteen year career, Hamilton has lost to his teammate here nine times, and he has only won the race twice. This has not been a good track for him.

Piastri has not been able to get one over Norris on home soil.

The Weather Forecast

I am sure the teams would like a nice straightforward weekend weather wise, but it looks like they may not get one. Friday and Saturday are set to be dry, partly sunny and very warm at 30-37 degrees. However, Sunday is forecast to be cooler at 25 degrees with periods of rain for the race.

Two days with temperatures way higher than was the case for testing, followed by a potentially wet race to kick the season off. That would be entertaining, interesting, but a minefield for punting.

The chances of rain on Sunday have increased as the week has gone on. It is now a 93% chance of rain on Sunday. What has changed, is that a couple of days ago it was the afternoon that was set to be the wettest part of the day, but now it is the morning. The chance of rain in the afternoon is down to 70%, with the morning likely to see the majority of the day’s rainfall. It will also be windy, with gusts of over 65kmh.

Still Uncertain

As usual with weather forecasts, they are just that, a forecast. It will firm up the closer we get to Sunday, but it does look like the chance of rain for the race is certainly real. The Albert Park circuit, there is a hint in the name, is lined by grass run off areas. When they get wet, they become like skid pans.

Put a wheel off the track and you are going to be in bother. Overshoot a corner, and the walls are calling. We saw what rain can do to a Grand Prix in Brazil last year, so you have to be aware that this race could be chaotic, if the forecast of rain does become reality. It may not be a good race to go steaming in on your favoured selection, but one to spread your stakes more widely.

2025 Australian GP Summary

The first race, indeed the first few races, are not the easiest to try and find winners in. Sometimes you can spot a car that has been underrated or will be well suited to the track on what was seen at testing.

When Kimi Raikkonen was driving for Lotus F1 in 2013, he arrived in Melbourne in an unfancied car, but a car that had two redeeming factors. It was very stable under braking and had great traction. It was ideal for the old lay out here. He won on his team debut at around 17.00 if my memory serves me right.

The track is no longer the old point and squirt layout. It is less niche and harder to find an edge. It is not much like Bahrain. The track surfaces are very different. Melbourne is now much smoother, less abrasive than Bahrain for a start.

It will also be much hotter for qualifying and practice but could well be cold and wet come Sunday. That massive change in the weather would be a huge curve ball. I would have preferred a straightforward, warm, dry race for the opening weekend.

Surprises

The Albert Park has a tendency to throw up surprises on a regular basis, even in the dry. Throw in a wet race and we could get more surprises.

The consensus is that McLaren will start this season as they finished the last, with the best car. McLaren are playing it down, the others bigging them up, but they are the favourites. However, a wet race will just throw a load of banana skins at them.

The rain affected British GP at Silverstone last year was strategic low point for McLaren, and another winner that got away. Norris is a good wet weather racer, but the pit wall has to make the right calls.

I will have a look at the drivers of interest for this weekend’s race and see if it could be worth taking a risk on any.

The Leading Contenders

Lando Norris 

The 2.88 favourite. He has a decent track record here, but there are drivers with better. He has the best all round car and should be there abouts, but at 2.88, there is not a lot of wriggle room for what looks like a wet race in prospect.

Oscar Piastri 

Has to up his game to regularly beat Norris. Piastri is also aiming to become the first Australian driver to stand on the podium of the Australian GP since it became part of the Formula 1 World Championship. Odds of 7.50 are only fair.

Piastri signed a new, long term contract extension to stay with McLaren yesterday, so he will have a bit more of a spring in his step, but not that you would notice with Mr. No Pulse.

Charles Leclerc 

The 6.00 second favourite, but that is with the win only books. Each way punters can get 5.50 for either 1/5 the odds the first three, or 1/3 the odds first or second. Leclerc is a former winner here in 2022, runner up last year and a one-time pole sitter. Ferrari have won two of the three races here with the new track layout and four of the last six Aussie GPs.

Lewis Hamilton 

Not a great track record by his high standards. Vettel and Alonso both won one of the first two races of their first season at Ferrari, so could the Red Magic rub off on Hamilton? A wet race would help his chances. Odds of 8.00 are interesting.

Max Verstappen 

Says that he is not in the running for the win this weekend. In testing the car had too much understeer for his liking and was struggling over the kerbs. Of course, Red Bull will have worked on the car since testing, so they may have improved on that.

Max has not enjoyed a lot of luck here in recent years, but did win in 2023, but that car was a beast. Odds of 6.50 with the win only books, 5.50 for the each way fans.

George Russell 

Leading the Mercedes attack and he was third here in 2022, was unlucky to retire when leading in 2023 and crashed out late in 2024. The car was rated from as good as second best to fourth best by the pundits after testing. It will be good, at least on some sections of the track. Odds of 14.00 with one each way book.

The Dark Horses

Kimi Antonelli 

Bidding to become the first Kimi to win here since Raikkonen in 2013. This is his F1 debut and it is a stretch to think that he can beat the drivers above, even in a wet race that could tend towards the chaotic. Odds 51.00

Fernando Alonso 

The Aston Martin was regarded as one of the worst cars in testing, but the team have gone well here in the last three years. Yes, the car was one of the few cars that wasn’t overweight in 2022, but they had a 3-4 finish in 2023 and Alonso finished sixth here last year but received a post-race penalty that knocked him back to eighth.

If we do get a rain affected mixed up race, having a very experienced driver on your side is no bad thing. Odds 201.00. He would need a wet one to have a look in, but he may get just that.

Carlos Sainz 

Won the race last year just a couple of weeks after having surgery to remove his appendix. The Williams was impressive in testing, with the usual provisos about fuel loads and power unit settings.

Williams managed a point here in 2022 with the famous last lap pit stop for Albon. He was 11th here last year and qualified 10th in 2023. Williams are heading in the right direction and Sainz is no slouch in the wet. Odds 151.00. He is an interesting pick for the minor placings in the midfield.

Pierre Gasly 

Alpine finished 2024 in decent shape and that form was carried through into pre-season testing. Gasly is in the hunt for points. He can take his chances if they are presented.

Lance Stroll 

Stroll does two things well. He is good off the line, and he is a decent wet weather driver. His form figures on the new layout are 12/4/6. There may be worse top ten picks than Stroll, for once.

2025 Australian GP Selections

The dilemma for the opening race is whether to go in early and take the tasty prices or wait until post-qualifying and use the form gathered to have a bit more confidence. With the weather forecast being for hot, dry conditions on Friday and Saturday, and cooler and wet for the race, we may be none the wiser come Sunday morning. I will roll the dice and have a few ante post punts.

2025 Australian GP Tip: 1 point Lewis Hamilton to win @ 8.00 with BET365, Skybet

In with a chance if it is wet. The track isn’t his best and in the dry, I would prefer Leclerc. But what a story it would be, and very much in the Ferrari tradition.

2025 Australian GP Tip: 0.5 point e/w Fernando Alonso @ 201.00 with Betfred, Skybet, BET365 (1/5 the odds 1-3)

His track record speaks for itself, and in a wet race, a slow car is not such a handicap. Better to have a wise head in a modest car, than a kid in a good one.

2025 Australian GP Tip: 1 point Carlos Sainz to finish in the top 6 @ 5.00 generally available

Was 5.50 a couple of days ago, so the money has been trickling in for Sainz, and rightly so.

2025 Australian GP Tip: 1 point Pierre Gasly to finish in the top 10 @ 2.10 with Betfair, Skybet

Also being nibbled at in the betting market.

I will have a brief update on Friday after we have seen FP1 and FP2. There will be no specific update for Qualifying, but there will be the usual race day update, posted on Saturday afternoon UK time.

-JamesPunt