2025 Australian GP Qualifying Preview

James Punt has already posted two bumper pre-season previews. Part 1 can be read here and Part 2 can be read here. His Grand Prix betting preview can be viewed here. Check out James’ 2025 Australian GP Qualifying preview below.

2025 Australian GP Qualifying

The first two free practice sessions didn’t throw a lot of light on the form book. I wouldn’t say there were any major surprises and of course it was only free practice. Engine modes and fuel loads are unknown. We will know more after qualifying.

The big issue remains the weather and so far, the weather guessers have been right. It was warm, sunny and dry for Friday’s free practice. For FP3 and qualifying the forecast is for cloudy conditions but also for it to be very warm. Temperatures in the mid-30s, and still dry. That will be tough on the soft tyres but the cloud cover will keep the track surface cooler than it would be in direct sunlight.

Rain Forecast For Sunday

Sunday is the big day and the forecast remains wet. The temperature is set to drop ten to twelve degrees, the wind will pick up to 35kmh, gusting to 65kmh, and there will be rain. The big question is how much, and when.

I have tracked the forecast all week and it has remained fairly consistent. The only trend is that the forecast amount of rain has reduced, and that it is likely that the morning will see the bulk of the rain.

The afternoon is now expected to only see around 3mm, which would be enough to wet the track, but these big F1 cars will dry that amount very quickly. However, if the rains stays a little longer, we may get more than expected. We are still some 36 hours away from the race and things can change.

Friday’s Free Practice Form

There was nothing surprising amongst the top teams. McLaren look to be slightly ahead of Ferrari, Verstappen three or four tenths off the McLarens, and Mercedes very close to Verstappen.

Williams are heading the midfield pack but being pushed by the surprisingly quick Racing Bulls. Alpine are a little further off the pace than expected, but ahead of Aston Martin, just, Sauber and Haas.

2025 Australian GP Qualifying: Team by Team

McLaren 

Norris was quickest in FP1 and 3rd in FP2, Piastri 4th and 2nd. No worries, no dramas. Norris wasn’t that happy with his low fuel runs, and it is close over one lap, but their long run pace looks good, as testing suggested.

Ferrari 

Leclerc was fastest in FP2, just over a tenth faster than the McLarens, but the McLarens are suspected of running with more fuel according to the analysts. Hamilton was 12th and 5th, struggling with corner turn in. They seem to have closed the gap to McLaren since testing but are still a couple of tenths off on long runs. For qualifying, it is very close, at least with Leclerc.

Red Bull 

Definitely off the top pace, with Verstappen over 0.6s off Leclerc in FP2. He is likely to be closer in qualifying but he is where testing suggested he would be. Lawson was down at the bottom with the rest of the rookies. On first showing, the ‘bring back Perez’ campaign could be in full swing very soon.

Mercedes 

Remain hard to pin down. They looked to be fourth best in testing and Friday’s times seem to confirm this, at least on this circuit and in the warm conditions. Russell wasn’t perfect, having a couple of moments, and Antonelli looked like the rookie he is.

Their race pace looks better than their one lap pace and the soft tyre wasn’t great for them. The higher temperatures tomorrow might be a problem for Mercedes. Both drivers ran the hard tyres in FP2, the only ones to do so.

Williams 

Continue to impress. Williams do look to have the fifth best car. Sainz was 2nd in FP1, Albon 6th. They dropped back into the pack in FP2 but that is likely due to them struggling on the soft tyres. The two drivers set exactly the same lap time in FP2. They should be looking at getting at least one car into Q3, but that struggle with the soft tyres is a worry.

Racing Bulls 

They were the surprise package on Friday, with both drivers in the top six in FP2 and Hadjar top ten in both sessions. Tsunoda does go well here, so it is not a huge surprise that he is showing well, but Hadjar was the only rookie to look like he was quick.

Low on fuel? Perhaps, but they are in the hunt for a point or two come Sunday. Tsunoda did say that ‘I’m sure we were doing different things, but so far we’re leading, so at the same time we take it as a positive’. That does sound like they were on the light side.

Alpine 

A bit disappointing so far. Gasly had a few moments and was slower than Jack Doohan in both sessions. Lower fuel for the Aussie? They are slower than I expected and they appear to be slower than the Racing Bulls. That will make it harder to score a point. Gasly tried running the soft tyre on his long run, which may explain why he was off the pace.

Aston Martin 

Still running with flow-vis paint as they look to gather more data. They are making noises that 2025 is basically a test session as they bed everyone in for the big push in 2026. Stroll was top 10 in both sessions, Alonso 8th in FP1. Probably better than expected after testing. We need the rain to come for Sunday.

Haas 

Bearman smashed his car up in FP1 and did no running in FP2, which is not good. It was left to Ocon to finally do a qualifying sim run but they remained resolutely last in both sessions. Not looking good.

Sauber

Nico Hulkenberg was eighth quickest in FP2 after making setup changes. That improved the car’s handling, but Hulkenberg said it was still not great. Bortoleto kept it clean and got some miles under his belt. It seems that they are still learning about the car and gathering data. No worse than last year and with Haas struggling, they may avoid being last.

2025 Australian GP Qualifying Bets

Picking the qualifying winner before seeing the results of FP3 is risky. It would seem to be between the two McLaren drivers and Charles Leclerc. Hamilton is not quite comfortable with the car just yet. Verstappen looks to have too much ground to make up.

Norris was by far the better qualifier at McLaren last year but Piastri was the happier of the two drivers today. However, Norris is always a glass half empty sort of guy.

Norris is the 2.50 favourite, Leclerc 3.40 and Piastri 5.50.

This has been a good track for Ferrari in recent years but they have scored just the one pole in the last six races here. They have usually found one too good. That could be Norris in 2025. He scored seven poles in the last fifteen races last season and he deserves to be the favourite. Odds of 2.40? Only fair.

I will have two speculative bets for qualifying, and no, I haven’t been on the sauce. Not yet anyway.

2025 Australian GP Qualifying Tip: 1 point Lance Stroll to make Q3 @ 5.00 with Livescorebet

He showed decent pace in both sessions today, making the top 10 in both, as he did this time last year, when he ended up qualifying ninth, one place ahead of his teammate. Stroll qualified 6th in 2023, so he clearly likes the track.

He made Q3 seven times in 2024, and with Williams and Mercedes both struggling on the soft tyres and Racing Bulls maybe running light today, there might be a few disappointments that may give Stroll the chance to make it three in a row in Melbourne. The odds are on the generous side.

2025 Australian GP Qualifying Tip: 1 point Lewis Hamilton to out qualify George Russell @ 1.90 with Livescorebet

The Ferrari looks to be the faster car, although Hamilton is not quite at ease with it just yet. He still has another session to get more comfortable in his new office. Mercedes struggled with the soft tyres which helped Hamilton be five places higher than Russell in FP2. It will be hotter tomorrow, so Mercedes may struggle again.

-JamesPunt