2025 Australian GP Raceday Preview

James Punt was out of luck in qualifying butt he hopes to bounce back on raceday. Check out his 2025 Australian GP Raceday preview below.

2025 Australian GP Raceday

The combination of a hot track and the soft tyres opened the door for a McLaren front row lockout in qualifying. They were able to keep their rear tyres at a manageable temperature, while the rest had cooked theirs in the first two sectors. That is what a very good car can do.

McLaren 

A 1-2 in the first qualifying session of the season is the ideal start for McLaren. Max Verstappen was the next best and he was 0.385 slower than Norris. That is a very healthy gap, and on a track which is said to not be ideal for their car.

Of course, there are no points for pole position and the two drivers and the pit wall staff now have to convert a front row lockout into a win. The car looks to have a bigger advantage over long runs and it is their race to lose.

McLaren and their drivers were far from perfect in executing the races last year, and the strategists equally remiss. Norris scored eight pole positions and converted only three into race wins. They must do better. Piastri qualified in second place six times and won two of those races. All is not lost for the Aussie.

Norris is now the 2.50 favourite for the race, Piastri 5.00.

Red Bull 

Still looking like a one man band. Verstappen got the very best out of the car and ended up third, but nearly four tenths off Norris. The car is not as quick as the McLaren and beating them will be hard, but Verstappen is in the right place to take advantage should McLaren slip up again. Liam Lawson has not been better than sixteenth all weekend. A dismal start to his (brief?) tenure at Red Bull. Bring back Checo!

Mercedes 

Russell is probably in the right place, although I had Ferrari being faster. He was happy enough with his performance, but he is getting on for half a second off the McLarens. Antonelli ended up way back in sixteenth, having been fifth in FP3. He appeared to damage his car by going over a kerb. That is not a great surprise as he has been very ragged all weekend.

Racing Bulls

Their pace in free practice was real but top five in qualifying, beating both Ferraris, is a surprise. Hadjar only just missed out on making Q3, and he has been the pick of the rookies.

Williams 

Both cars into Q3 is not a great surprise and the fact that Sainz only managed tenth is. That is a sign of the progress Williams have made. Sainz just had a messy final qualifying lap and he has good potential for the race. Albon ended up sixth, beating the two Ferraris. It would have been better if it had been Sainz starting sixth, but our bet on the Spaniard finishing in the top six is not dead yet.

Ferrari 

The standout disappointment of the weekend so far. Leclerc looked to be in the hunt for pole and to end up just seventh, behind a Racing Bull and a Williams is embarrassing. Leclerc was 0.659 off Norris, and that is a huge gap. They really suffered with overheating the rear tyres. The cooler weather conditions and not using the soft tyres will help their race pace and we should have seen the worst of them. They can’ be any worse in the race, surely.

Alpine 

Gasly just pipped Hadjar to make Q3 and was able to take advantage of a bad lap by Sainz to qualify ninth. That is about where the car should be, on the Q2 – Q3 border. Doohan was back in fourteenth and that is about where he has been all weekend. Gasly will have his work cut out to stay in the points, but better to start inside the top ten, than out.

Aston Martin 

Their decent pace on Friday disappeared on Saturday and the two cars line up twelfth and thirteenth.

Sauber 

Not the worst car on the grid! It is a poor state of affairs when qualifying fifteenth is a triumph, but for Sauber, it is progress. It was rookie Bortoleto who was the faster of their two drivers but he was flattered by the problems for Antonelli and Lawson just being rubbish.

Haas 

I expected better from 2024’s most improved team. Bearman has not recovered from his FP1 smash but Ocon had no big problems and still only managed to finish nineteenth.

Race Prospects – Rain On The Way

We have established something of a pecking order, for this track at least, but that may all be thrown in the bin if the forecast rain arrives for the race.

The latest forecast, and they should be accurate at this stage, is for a much cooler day. There is a 97% chance of rain and the winds are predicted to be around 30kmh, gusting to 60kmh. The rain will last for six hours or so, with 11mm expected.

Most of that is expected to fall before noon and the afternoon is set for just 3mm of the wet stuff, but the winds will peak around race time, and the temperature will drop to 17 degrees.

Showers

The rain is forecast to arrive around 7am local time and that will fall for around four hours. From noon onwards, the weather improves, but with showers coming and going throughout the afternoon.

The race starts at 3pm local time. By then, the chance of rain is down to 63% and dropping as the afternoon goes on. We should see some sunshine breaking through.

It looks like we should see some rain, but not a deluge. The morning rain will have cleaned the track of all the rubber that has gone down on Friday and Saturday. It will be a lot cooler, windy and damp/wet at times. The grip will be low and conditions very testing. Making mistakes will be easy and it will be particularly tricky for the rookies and maybe those drivers in unfamiliar cars.

Past Form

In the last ten races here, the pole sitter has only won three times, but two of those were in the last three years. The driver starting second won four of the last ten, the driver starting third won two, and the driver starting from seventh won in 2013.

In terms of drivers making up a lot of places to reach the top ten, the driver starting sixteenth has made the top 10 five times. The driver starting fifteenth four times.

The last wet race here was back in 2010. The track was wet at the start and required inters. Jenson Button, who else, was the first to pit for slicks on lap six and the rest of the field followed him in on lap nine or ten. Button went on to win the race, in only his second start for McLaren. Button had started from fourth and he was joined on the podium by Robert Kubica who started ninth in his Renault, and Massa was third for Ferrari, having started fifth.

Attrition

It is hard to say if the rain played a huge part in the result and the most notable thing about the race was that there was nine DNF’s and one DNS. Four cars were eliminated in a first lap crash.

The attrition rate at Albert Park over the last ten years is 4.40 per race, but as the reliability of the cars has improved over the years, a more realistic assessment is 3.20 across the last five races here.

We had three rain affected races in 2024. Canada, Britain and Brazil. Max Verstappen won two and was second in the other. Norris was second in Canada, and third in Silverstone. Hamilton won at Silverstone, but he did start second, as did Max in Canada.

George Russell started on pole in both Canada and Silverstone but finished third in Montreal and retired with a mechanical issue at Silverstone. The two Alpines completed the podium in Brazil.

Changeable

That race was full on mad. Max started from twelfth and Gasly fifteenth. It was a proper wet race rather than a mixed conditions race that we had in Canada and Silverstone. This weekend’s race is looking more likely to see changeable conditions, rather than full on mad.

If so, I expect the drivers at the front of the grid to be thereabouts at the end of the race. However, we can’t say for certain that we will just have fairly light showers. That is the problem with a wet weather forecast.

2025 Australian GP Raceday Summary

McLaren remain the team to beat. The weather does look like it will throw in a curve ball with very different conditions from what we have seen so far. That may mix things up. The chance of accidents will be high and on a confined ‘street’ circuit, that means a higher chance of yellow flags and safety cars. That can open up opportunities for some and throw in banana skins for others.

You need good grip to go well in the forecast conditions and the McLaren is as likely to be the class of the field in the wet as it is in the dry. It is a well-balanced car with lots of downforce. Norris is a good wet weather driver and he deserves to be the 2.50 favourite, but events can still go against him and the odds are low for the forecast conditions.

Piastri Has A Chance

Oscar Piastri has a better chance of winning than the pole sitter does if you just consider past results. He has the same car, the best car, but his race craft has not been as good as Norris’. His wet weather skills are not as well known. His odds of 5.00 are more attractive.

The Red Bull is not as sorted as the McLaren, not as easy to drive, but in the wet there may be no better driver than Max Verstappen. He has the ability to overcome car deficiencies, even in the wet. He is in the mix but the market is wise to his chances and he starts as the 3.50 second favourite.

The Ferrari may not be the easiest to drive in the wet and Hamilton is correct to say that he is up against it as he has never driven the car in the wet and has no ‘go to’ settings. He will just have to take direction from the team, which is not ideal. He is a very good wet weather driver, but he is at a disadvantage here.

Rolled The Dice

We rolled the dice with the ante-post bets in the preview. We are on Hamilton to win, which doesn’t look too clever now. Starting eighth means he would have to be very lucky to win. We also have a smaller each way bet on Alonso. That one was based on the earlier forecast which suggested more rain than we look likely to get. We need a Brazil style race for that to have the remotest of chances.

We also backed Sainz for a top six finish. The car has the pace, there is a Williams starting from sixth place, just the wrong one. Sainz is not out of it. He is a better wet weather racer than most and the conditions may open things up for him. We got him at 5.00 and he is now generally a 2.75 shot.

Our final bet was for Gasly to finish in the points @ 2.10. He starts from ninth and is into 1.62 for a top ten finish.

Race Day Bets

It looks like we are on the wrong end of things this weekend. It was two points lost in qualifying and while we might still get a result with Gasly and maybe Sainz, our outright race win bets are in the lap of the gods, which is never a good place to be.

I am tempted by the 5.00 for a Piastri win. The driver starting second has tended to do well here. He is in the best car which helps. The weather forecast does put some doubts in, however. Norris and Verstappen are better wet weather racers and rather than throw more money on the race winner market, I will look elsewhere for any value bets.

Six Rookies

We have six ‘rookies’ in the field, some with a limited amount of F1 experience, but not on this track. Bearman did finish the wet Brazilian GP in twelfth for Haas last year and Lawson was ninth. Just because they are rookies, doesn’t mean they will crash out. However, the one rookie who I suspect may do, is Antonelli.

His driving style is not silky smooth. He has been using a lot of kerbs and it was hitting one hard that cost him in qualifying. In the wet you want to stay off the kerbs, off the grass and try not to be putting in a lot of sharp steering inputs. Jenson Button was a great weather racer as he was very smooth, very gentle with the steering wheel. He was never sawing away at it like Antonelli does.

A lot of people, Toto Wolff included, think Antonelli is the next big thing. Another generational talent. If so, he could well be a good bet to finish in the points. He starts from sixteenth place, which has produced a lot of points finishers here, and the very best drivers tend to thrive in low grip conditions.

I think he will either finish in the points, or in the wall. A points finish is a 2.20 shot, his odds to be not classified, 5.00. I will have a go with the latter.

2025 Australian GP Raceday Tip: 1 point Kimi Antonelli not be a classified finisher @ 5.00 with Skybet, Betvictor

The potential for tricky conditions weather wise, the number of rookie drivers and drivers sitting in new machinery, may mean we get more retirements than might normally be the case. I am not usually that interested in this market, and the value usually lies in backing very few retirements these days, but today, you can make a case for more than two drivers to be not classified.

2025 Australian GP Raceday Tip: 1 point under 17.5 drivers not to be classified @ 2.20 with Ladbrokes

-JamesPunt