2025 Austrian GP Raceday Preview

Now, it is time for James Punt’s 2025 Austrian GP Raceday preview. He landed two nice bets in qualifying, hopefully we can fire in more winners this afternoon.  

2025 Austrian GP Raceday

It was a successful qualifying session yesterday. Lando Norris got his fourth pole position of the season and Charles Leclerc landed the place, qualifying in second place at odds of 51.00. That was a 5.75 point profit and hopefully there is more to come today.

We are already on Norris to win the race at 3.25, we have half a point on Bortoleto to finish in the points at 10.00, a point on Alonso to finish in the points and a point for Hadjar to beat Sainz at 2.45. Hopefully a few of those wagers will land.

The two that won’t are both on Nico Hulkenberg. I normally don’t back a driver twice as it guarantees that they fail, and the curse was strong yesterday as Hulkenberg qualified plumb last, and twelve places behind his teammate Bortoleto.

Surprises

Qualifying saw some surprises. Both Ferraris qualified in the top four, only the second time that has happened in 2025. They have some upgrades on the car this weekend and they are said to be working as expected.

Mercedes and Red Bull went AWOL in qualifying. The track temperature finally went up with the sun breaking through. The Mercedes we know has problems in the heat, but it was more of a surprise to see the Red Bull lose grip in the hot conditions. It will be hotter still today and those two teams might have a difficult race.

The two stars of qualifying, outside of Norris, were Liam Lawson and Gabriel Bortoleto. Lawson qualified sixth, and given his seasonal average in qualifying is 15.3, that was completely unexpected. Bortoleto was less of a surprise. The Sauber, with a few more updates for this weekend, has been quick since the Barcelona upgrade was put on the car, and Bortoleto had been top ten in all three practice sessions.

2025 Austrian GP Raceday: Team-by-Team

McLaren 

Norris was 0.521s clear of second-best Leclerc yesterday. That is the biggest winning margin in qualifying this season, by over three tenths, and on the shortest lap. It was ridiculously good. Piastri was caught out by a brief yellow flag as he was about to launch his final qualifying lap, but he has not been on the same level as Norris this weekend.

The polesitter has won six of the last ten races held at the Red Bull Ring. That bodes reasonably well for Norris, so fingers crossed. For Piastri, last year’s race was won from third on the grid, but that is the only time that the third placed driver on the grid has won in the last ten years. Piastri has started from third three times in 2025 and didn’t improve on his grid starting spot.

Ferrari 

Interesting. Ferrari’s weakness in 2025 was in qualifying. Their qualifying averages before yesterday were 6.00 for Leclerc and 7.50 for Hamilton. Their respective race finishing positions have been 4.7 and 6.4.

If they have retained that better race pace characteristic than we should see at least one Ferrari on the podium. Often, it is the case that gaining qualifying performance comes at the expense of race performance, or vice versa, but that is normally the case when the problem is with tyre temperatures.

In Ferrari’s case, it is about ride heights and being able to run the car a bit lower to improve overall downforce, so they should OK. Leclerc is 9-1 with Hamilton in the ten races in 2025.

Merecedes 

There was some speculation that Russell’s win in Montreal, when the weather was hot, meant that their updated suspension had cured their hot weather weakness. Alas, that is not the case. It was just the fact that Montreal has no fast, long duration corners which meant that the tyres coped with the conditions.

Back on a track where there are more in the way of fast, sweeping corners, their Achillies Heel has been exposed. Today is a case of damage limitation, says George Russell.

Racing Bulls 

I have been less than enthused by Liam Lawson’s season to date, but credit where it is due. To be the highest qualifier in the Red Bull stable, in their home race is a bit of a f**k you moment for the driver that got sacked from the senior team after just two races.

The driver starting sixth here has scored points in eight of the last ten races and Lawson converted his only other Q3 into points at Monaco. He is just 1.44 to do so again. We are on Hadjar to beat Carlos Sainz, and while qualifying didn’t go well for the rookie, he at least starts six places ahead of the Spaniard. Fingers crossed for that one.

Sauber 

Yesterday’s qualifying was bittersweet for Sauber, and our bets on them. Bortoleto has been on it all weekend, top ten in every session and he starts from eighth place. We are on him to finish in the points and the driver starting eighth here has finished in the points in eight of the last ten races here. Bortoleto is now a 1.83 shot so you can lay off some of the 10.00 we got on Thursday, if you like.

Of course, I would be much happier if it was Hulkenberg starting eighth as we are on him both for points, and a top six. Sadly, his qualifying was a disaster. He had struggled all weekend compared to Bortoleto, he locked up in his final run in Q1 and ended up in twentieth place. Any chance of a comeback drive?

The driver starting from twentieth has not finished in the points in the thirteen races since this track returned to the Calendar in 2014. Alonso did score points from a pitlane start in 2018, but we need a lot of luck if we are to see a return on the Hulkenberg investments.

Alpine 

I mentioned in the preview that drivers like Gasly can pop up out of nowhere on random weekends, and here he is, denying Alonso a shot in Q3. Gasly’s problem is that the car’s race pace is not great, slowest of all on Friday.

That said, over the season to date, his finishing position is one place better than his qualifying position, but he has had two DNFs. Colapinto qualified fourteenth and is likely to remain pointless.

Gasly is 1.85 to finish in the points but he has only converted two of his five top ten starts into points in 2025, and the driver starting tenth has only finished in the top 10 twice in the last ten races here.

Aston Martin 

We are on Alonso to finish in the points, and he is now a 2.40 chance to do so. It is the first time he has not made Q3 since the Imola upgrade and historically, the Aston Martin’s race pace is a little off their qualifying pace.

The driver starting eleventh here has scored in six of the last ten races, so past form is on our side. At least he will have saved a set of tyres for the race which will help in today’s heat. Lance Stroll had been going very well in practice, but he reverted to type, going out in Q1.

Both drivers said that the increased track temperatures led to a lack of grip, which doesn’t bode well for today.

Williams 

Albon starts from twelfth, his worst result since Bahrain. Their race pace is normally good, but Albon has suffered back to back DNFs and this is not a track where he, or Williams, have had much joy. Albon had some floor damage in Q1 and lost a set of new tyres when the red flag came out. He is optimistic of making forward progress, but will his power unit hold up?

Carlos Sainz said that something must have broken on his car as its handling was all over the place under braking. He too picked up floor damage. The floors will be repaired and Sainz is getting used to starting from near the back having gone out in Q1 in the last two races, but he did fight his way back into the points in Canada.

Haas 

Ocon was out in Q1, and Bearman only made fifteenth. Both drivers have improved on their qualifying positions by over 3 places across the season so far. Bearman starts fifteenth and Ocon recovered from fourteenth to finish ninth in Canada last time out, so they are never quite out of it, having scored points in half of the races in 2025.

2025 Austrian GP Raceday Summary

We are going into this race with a decent portfolio of bets but today is where it matters. Norris is now the 1.40 favourite, and it is his race to lose. The car is best in hot conditions and it is going to be very hot today. We are on him at 3.25 and there is no need to get involved in the win market again.

As far as podium betting goes, I do fancy Charles Leclerc’s chances. He has only had three so far this season, but he starts from second place today as he did in Bahrain and Monaco, finishing fourth and second respectively.

I expect him to lose a place to Piastri, but who else is going to bother him? Russell and Verstappen both struggled in the hot conditions yesterday and with parc-ferme regulations in place, there is not a lot they can do to change setups to change things. Hamilton is a possible danger, but Leclerc has put some shade on him all season.

2025 Austrian GP Raceday Tip: 1 point Charles Leclerc to finish on the podium @ 1.67 with Ladbrokes

The driver starting sixth has a 50% strike rate of finishing in the top six here in the last ten years. This year, it is Lawson starting sixth and he is a 4.50 shot to finish top six. It would be a career best finish, but he will not have started so high up the grid before.

I can’t help but think that part of his position is down to other’s misfortunes or not coping with the heat. If it is the latter, then he has a chance, but my gut feeling is that he will drop a place or two. Bortoleto is 8.00 to finish top six, but I am not risking the curse on his chances for a points finish.

We really have all the main markets covered already so I will have a look at the side markets for any nuggets of value.

Norris to win and set the fastest lap is a 3.00 shot. He has done it in both his wins in 2025 and in three of his six GP wins. Norris has set the fastest lap in five of the ten races in 2025. He was SO much faster than anyone else yesterday and while the FL market can be a bit random, McLaren have set seven of the ten in 2025 and this looks to be a very good track for them, and the conditions are favourable. The odds are touch generous.

2025 Austrian GP Raceday Tip: 1 point Lando Norris to win and set fastest lap @ 3.00 with Hills

I like to find a way to support the Haas drivers on raceday as their race pace tends to be stronger than in qualifying. Ladbrokes have matched Bearman (15th) to beat Colapinto (14th). The Englishman is 3-1 with Colapinto in 2025.

2025 Austrian GP Raceday Tip: 1 point Oliver Bearman to beat Franco Colapinto @ 1.73 with Ladbrokes

-JamesPunt