2025 Bahrain GP Betting Preview

Now, it is time for James Punt’s 2025 Bahrain GP betting preview. Japan was a struggle but hopefully we can turn the corner this weekend.

2025 Bahrain GP

The carnage continued in Japan with not a single winner across the weekend. What was worse was that we had to endure what was one of the worst Grand Prix I have ever seen, and I have watched hundreds and hundreds. We had one change of position from the top ten drivers on the grid. Hamilton moved up one place, Hadjar moved down one place. The rest finished where they started.

Not for the first time, the hard tyre turned out to be super durable and made a one stop strategy easy. The hard tyre turned out to be faster than the medium and the race was just a procession.

McLaren held a strategic advantage but declined to try and make that work for them. They were happy to take the 2-3 finish and not even try and get one of their drivers ahead of Verstappen. Clean air was said to be worth 0.3 to 0.5 seconds a lap, but McLaren declined to keep one of their drivers out on track to try and get track position and hold up Verstappen.

No Entertainment In Japan

They said that it would not have made any difference. They may be right. Antonelli did a long first stint and led the Grand Prix for a while. He was able to set fastest lap, but he ended up back in sixth place at the chequered flag, the same place as where he started. There was no undercut and there was no overcut. There was no safety car, there was no rain and there was not a single DNF. Most certainly, there was no entertainment.

Track position is very important this season. These cars are just too sensitive to the dirty air of the car in front. It was said that you need to be 0.8 seconds faster if you were going to be able to pass the car in front at Suzuka.

Nobody had that sort of advantage and we just got cars following each other with no overtaking. DRS was of little use on a relatively short straight and so long as the driver ahead didn’t make a mistake, it was all but impossible to overtake.

Lots Of Data

This weekend, the teams return to Bahrain, where pre-season testing took place. Everyone has plenty of data for this one, with the new tyres. The circuit has not been resurfaced, or even partially resurfaced.

The asphalt here is rough and we might actually get some significant tyre degradation, but hang on, Pirelli have brought the same compounds as they did in Japan. So, a one stopper strategy it is then. The weather is set to be hot and dry so that will be something different. The front left tyre takes a beating here, and the rear left.

After three days of testing here in February, the teams will have plenty of data, so there should be no nasty surprises. That said, when we were here for testing the weather was surprisingly cool and windy. This weekend will see much warmer conditions.

The 2025 Bahrain GP Track

The Shakir circuit has become the circuit of choice for pre-season testing, but more because of its dry weather, rather than it being a great test track. Barcelona is a better test, but the weather there can be anything and when you only have three days of testing, you want somewhere where you will get three days of decent weather.

It is a medium downforce track with tarmac that is at the high end of the abrasive scale. There is a lot of braking areas and we should, please god, have a better chance of having a race rather than a procession. However, the dirty air factor is massive in 2025 and that puts a premium on qualifying.

Since the start of the turbo hybrid era we have had eleven Bahrain GPs on the Shakir circuit, but we also had the 2020 Shakir GP. That was run on a different layout, the ‘outer circuit’. That was won by Sergio Perez for Force India.

On the GP circuit, Mercedes have won six, the last in 2021. Ferrari have won three and Red Bull the last two.

Floodlights

The race is run under floodlights and starts just as the sun is setting at this time of year. The air temperatures remain high, but the track surface will cool as the direct sunlight fades. The FP2 practice session is the important one as it takes place at the same time and in the same conditions as the race.

This track feature three DRS zones, further raising hopes that overtaking might be possible. There are a number of heavy braking events, two of them at the end of DRS zones. That should, in theory, open up overtaking opportunities. There are plenty of slow corners and four fast sweeping curves.

We usually get reasonably good racing here and it cannot be as dull as the last two race weekends.

The Weather Forecast

It is usually very easy to predict the weather here. The biggest threat is usually wind, and that wind blowing sand on to the track. All three days are set to be hot and sunny with temperature around 32 degrees, and winds of around 20 KMH. No chance of any rain, but the wind will be challenging at times.

2025 Bahrain GP: Team-by-Team

McLaren

Comfortably leading the Constructors’ Championship by 36 points to Mercedes. Lando Norris’s lead in the Drivers’ Championship, however, is now just 1 point from Max Verstappen. The team did seem to be a bit conservative in terms of strategy in Japan. Happy to take the 2-3 result and maybe not wanting to rock the boat between their two drivers’ World Championship chances. By doing that, they have had to accept that Verstappen has joined the party.

McLaren managed to get pole position in the first two races of the season but not in the Chinese sprint qualifying, nor in Japan. With the dirty air problem, which is the same for all the cars, they need to get pole to get a firm grip on the race.

Their cars’ greatest strength is race pace, but that is blunted if following cars in front. This track does offer more overtaking opportunities so it shouldn’t be as qualifying dependent, but to be sure, they would really like to lock out the front row.

Norris has never finished better than fourth here, Piastri’s best finish was eighth last year, but that was before they got their definitive package. Still favourites to win the race in my book.

Mercedes 

Quietly accumulating points but the car doesn’t have the pace of the McLaren, or Verstappen when he strings it all together. Russell can be a podium contender again and Antonelli is back on a track that he has experience of driving on in the junior series and in an F1 car. The Mercedes went well enough here in testing, with Russell fastest on the final day. His best finish here is fourth place in 2022.

Red Bull 

There was one outstanding feature of the weekend in Japan, and that was of course, Max Verstappen’s qualifying lap on Saturday. He had never been near the pace in practice but the team found a better setup, with less downforce, and he did the rest. It was by the thinnest of margins, but such was the advantage of clean air and track position, that he effectively won the race there and then.

Tsunoda failed to score on his Red Bull debut and his weekend was effectively ended with a poor Q2 run. He had looked more likely to make Q3 but failed to get his out lap right and the tyres were too cold going into his final run.

He ended up starting from fourteenth place and he made up two places to finish twelfth. That was a relatively good performance as not many drivers improved on their starting position. Tsunoda has had two points finishes here and so long as he gets qualifying right, he can score points this weekend.

Ferrari 

A modestly successful Japanese GP, at least for Leclerc. He said that he had tried a few setup changes and eventually found one that he was much happier with. He qualified and finished fourth while Hamilton, unhappy with the ride height, qualified eighth and made up one place to finish seventh.

Ferrari are still having problems with the rear of the car squatting down at high speeds. With a heavy fuel load that means they are in danger of plank wear problems and they are running with a higher ride height than is ideal.

New Floor

Hamilton said that he is waiting for a new part that should address the problem. That new part is expected to be a new floor. It is widely expected that it will be ready for this weekend. That means Ferrari will have a lot of setup and data gathering work to do.

It remains to be seen if that will be the key to unlocking the car’s potential, which was shown in the Chinese sprint race. The fact that was a short race, with a low fuel load, meant that they could run lower without risking excess plank wear. They hope that a new floor will allow them to replicate that performance, but over a full race distance, and with a full load of fuel.

Hamilton has won this race five times since 2014, the last in 2021. Leclerc won it in 2022. We shall have to wait and see if the new floor is a) ready, and b) makes a difference.

Williams 

Have scored points in each Grand Prix of 2025. It is Alex Albon who is doing the heavy lifting, with Sainz only contributing one point and that was thanks to Ferrari’s double DSQ in China. Sainz was impressive here in testing, which only makes his woes since then all the more confusing. He has had a couple of podiums here in the last three years for Ferrari.

Albon has had a third place for Red Bull and two there top 10s. Scoring points may become more difficult if Tsunoda finds his feet at Red Bull, but Albon should be in the mix once again.

Haas 

Introduced a new floor in Japan, rushed in without having even a run in the wind tunnel. Bearman got it from the start of FP1, Ocon not until FP3. It worked well for Bearman who qualified and finished in tenth place. Ocon didn’t get any improved performance and was firmly at the back of the field all weekend.

Haas were very poor here in testing but established what the problem was and seem to have addressed it with the new floor. That introduces another team into the points scoring mix.

Aston Martin 

Pointless in Japan and with other teams and drivers improving, things look like getting tougher for the Aston Martins. Time to get Adrian Newey to have a poke around the design? That would not be a quick fix.

Alonso qualified thirteenth in Japan and said that was about as good as he could do. They have ten points on the board and have needed luck to get them. It is hard to fancy them getting many more any time soon.

Racing Bulls 

Finally got some Grand Prix points on the board in Japan. Hadjar was strong and while he was the only driver in the top 10 to drop a place, he hardly put a foot wrong all weekend. That will have done his confidence no end of good.

They have good point scoring potential but Lawson needs to get lots of track time in to get used to his new car. It is a track he knows well and we should see a more representative performance this weekend.

Sauber 

Will go better than they did in testing, but they remain the weakest team on the grid.

Alpine 

The only team yet to score a point in 2025. The car looks OK, but it is short on power and that might see them found out again here. Testing went OK but they have been one of the most disappointing teams of the season so far.

Gasly has had some good races here and can get the job done, but the car needs to improve as the competition is getting stronger. Doohan made up more places (4) than any other driver in Japan, but he only started in nineteenth place.

2025 Bahrain GP Summary

A return to familiar ground for the drivers and teams. That could mean we will see more in the way of upgrades. Ferrari’s new floor is the most important one that people are waiting for. It is a track where they have gone quite well in recent years.

As for the likely race winners? It is still McLaren for me. Last weekend was a poor race and that has been put down to the fact that a third of the track had been resurfaced. It was very smooth, high in grip but low on degradation. That meant the hard tyre was fast and durable. The layout of the track made overtaking difficult and hopefully we will have a different scenario this weekend.

Abrasive Asphalt

The abrasive asphalt, with the higher temperatures, should mean that we get degradation and that should play to McLaren’s strengths.

Red Bull brought some new parts to Japan and did find a better setup for Verstappen. If they can make that work here, then we may have a two team race. Ferrari could move up if their new floor is available and working, while Mercedes will be sniffing around for another podium.

I am going to be patient this weekend and not charge in. At least the sessions will be run at more agreeable times, so no sleep deprivation for the first time in 2025. I will have two bets at this point.

2025 Bahrain GP: Ante Post Selections

McLaren still have the best car. Yes, Red Bull improved their car for qualifying in Japan and then Verstappen strung together one of his best ever qualifying laps to nick pole by 0.014 seconds. Had the two McLaren drivers strung together their best sector times, they would have qualified ahead of Verstappen. It was just a classy display from Verstappen, but he can’t do that every week.

His pole advantage was then cemented by the nature of the Suzuka track. It is not an easy one to overtake on and so long as he didn’t make a mistake, there was nothing the faster McLarens could do while sitting in his dirty air.

Racing Track

The Shakir circuit is better designed for actual racing. Suzuka was designed to be a test track, this was designed to be a racetrack. There are slow corners at the end of DRS enabled straights, and the fact that there are three DRS zones helps closer racing.

The asphalt is abrasive and even with Pirelli’s long life hard tyres, we may see managing tyre wear being a bigger issue. The track temperatures will be high for the first time in 2025. Red Bull have said that while those were perfect conditions for them in years gone by, they are not in 2025.

Long Run Pace

McLaren didn’t dominate the headline times here in testing, but they left the opposition looking on with awe at their long run pace. I suspect that even if Max can find another wonder lap in qualifying and stick it on pole, he would struggle to keep the two McLarens behind him in the race.

Ferrari are something of a dark horse this weekend. The car has a fundamental problem which is holding it back. We saw Haas making a big step by bringing a new floor to Japan last week, so if Ferrari do bring a new one, they too could make a move up the order, but they will have a job of work to do.

I will keep the faith with McLaren. It always comes down to which one. Norris is the 2.63 favourite to win the race, Piastri 3.25. Norris is 2-0 with Piastri here in both the races and qualifying. I still make him the stronger of the two drivers, but it is closer in 2025.

2025 Bahrain GP Tip: 2 points Lando Norris to win the Bahrain GP @ 2.63 with Skybet

The second bet is for Carlos Sainz to finish in the points. He has struggled to get comfortable in the car so far and says that it will take the first quarter of the season to be fully up to speed. Team boss, James Vowles, is a bit more optimistic, saying that ‘they have found something’ that will help Sainz get more out of the car, but that he will wait until after qualifying before saying what it is.

Back on a track that he has spent a lot of time testing, well three days, he will be more comfortable from the off. He knows the tarmac and the layout and while you can never read too much into testing, it can only be a positive that he is back on familiar ground.

Three free practice sessions give him more time and hopefully, we will see him much closer to Albon’s pace. Sainz has finished 2/4/3 here in the last three years, so he knows what is needed to be quick here.

2025 Bahrain GP Tip: 1 point Carlos Sainz to finish in the points @ 2.65 with Ladbrokes

I have the luxury of only having the F1 to cover this weekend and with civilised session times, hopefully this can translate into better results, which shouldn’t be difficult to be honest.

-JamesPunt