2025 Bahrain GP Qualifying Preview

Now, it is time for James Punt’s 2025 Bahrain GP Qualifying preview. He has already posted his outright preview, check that out here.

2025 Bahrain GP Qualifying

The three practice sessions have finished and we now wait for the sun to start setting and the track temperatures to fall. The FP1 and FP3 sessions are not representative of the conditions we will get in qualifying and the race. The track grips up and gets faster in the cooler conditions. In FP3 Piastri was fastest but still 1.1 seconds slower than in FP2 yesterday.

The track was 43 degrees at the start of FP3, falling to 40 degrees by the end of it. By the time we get to qualifying it will be in the mid 30s and falling. That might suit some teams more than others. Ferrari and Red Bull have said that they struggle in the heat, so they may be relatively quicker.

Relatively quicker, but will they be anywhere near the McLarens? The other teams are saying that McLaren are in a different formula on this track.

McLaren 

If they don’t get pole, I will be extremely surprised. Norris has been making too many mistakes, while Piastri has barley put a foot wrong. This looks like a great chance for the Aussie to get pole. The McLaren is running with more wing, producing a lot of efficient downforce and while they are slow on the straights, the lap times are excellent.

Red Bull 

Verstappen did split the two McLarens at one stage, but it was a lap where he exceeded track limits by some way and it wouldn’t have counted in qualifying. He is struggling and has been seventh and eighth in his two sessions, having sat FP1 out.

Tsunoda only ran on the hard compound tyres in FP3 which may explain why he was last in FP3. It doesn’t explain all of it, however. He was just eighteenth in the more representative FP2 session yesterday and he just looks like another driver that was been thrown into the Red Bull mincer.

I expect Verstappen to be closer later, but a repeat of Suzuka? I doubt it. Tsunoda to make it out of Q1? I doubt that as well.

Ferrari 

Their substantial floor upgrade doesn’t seem to have made much difference. Leclerc is going well enough, fourth and third in the two sessions. He was the only driver within a second of Piastri’s time. Hamilton was back in tenth place and he was just eighth in FP2. He was four places off Leclerc in Japan, and a repeat of that looks possible.

Mercedes 

Russell is complaining of a lack of grip, but so is everyone. He should be in the mix for the second row, along with Verstappen and Leclerc. Antonelli has been fifth in both FP2 and FP3. He should end up around there, maybe sixth, in qualifying proper.

The midfield battle is always interesting. Who will be ‘best of the rest’ today?

Racing Bulls

Hadjar has been sixth and seventh in FP2 and FP3. He has qualified seventh in the last two race weekends, so that is where he should slot in later. Lawson has been back in twelfth and thirteenth. Making Q3 looks unlikely.

Alpine 

Gasly has put in two good performances in practice, but both in the unrepresentative FP1 and FP3 sessions. He was just seventeenth in FP2. That makes him hard to predict. I would expect him to be close to making Q3. Doohan has looked a bit better this weekend. He won’t make Q3 but should be in Q2 comfortably.

Williams 

Carlos Sainz finally looks to be getting a handle on the Williams. Faster than Albon in both FP2 and FP3 and in the top 10, just, in both. Hopefully he can make Q3 but it is very tight. The car has the pace.

Haas 

Only ran the hard tyre in FP3, so to get Ocon in eleventh is encouraging.

Aston Martin 

Alonso has been fifteenth and fourteenth in his two sessions and that that looks to be the limit of the Aston Martin right now. Stroll will do well to get out of Q1.

Sauber 

Hulkenberg can drag a slow car well up the grid, but the Sauber looks more likely to get stuck in Q1.

2025 Bahrain GP Qualifying Summary

This looks to be s straight fight between the two McLaren drivers. Yes, Verstappen did for them both in Suzuka but this track, and these conditions, are favourable for McLaren.

We are on Norris for tomorrow’s race, but so far, Piastri has looked the better of the two. He has been quite positive about their pace, while Norris was saying that they are no faster than anyone else, that you don’t know the engine modes and so on.

He is a glass half empty kind of person, but he needs to look up and get stuck in. So far, he has made a lot of mistakes and has not strung a good lap together. He might still be able to get a front row, but if he keeps on making mistakes, he could let someone else in.

2025 Bahrain GP Qualifying Tip: 1 point Oscar Piastri to be the fastest qualifier @ 2.00 with Skybet

A much more speculative bet is Oliver Bearman to reach Q3. He did it in Japan last weekend having been fifteenth and sixteenth in FP2 and FP3. He got very close in two of his stand in races last year, being eleventh in Saudi Arabia and Azerbaijan.

Bearman was ninth quickest in the more representative FP2 session yesterday and in FP3 he only ran on the hard tyre. His teammate was eleventh in FP3, also on the hard tyre. The Haas might well have more pace than it looks. They might end up going out in Q1, but the car obviously has good pace, at times.

2025 Bahrain GP Qualifying Tip: 1 point Oliver Bearman to reach Q3 @ 4.00 with Ladbrokes

The odds are not huge, but Antonelli looks worth backing to beat Hamilton in qualifying. He has been faster than Hamilton in FP2 and FP3. The young Italian is settling into F1 and improving week by week.

Hamilton is still not happy with the Ferrari. On low fuel and in lower temperatures he should be a bit quicker than his tenth place this afternoon, but the car’s setup is now set for the weekend and that means he may have to run a slightly compromised setup, rather than what is best for qualifying.

2025 Bahrain GP Qualifying 1 point Kimi Antonelli to beat Lewis Hamilton @ 1.60 with Ladbrokes

-JamesPunt