2025 Belgian GP Sprint Qualifying Preview

Now, it is time for James Punt’s 2025 Belgian Sprint Qualifying preview. You can read his in depth outright preview here. 

2025 Belgian GP Sprint Qualifying

It is hard to garner much form when there is just one session of free practice. FP1 is usually the least meaningful session of the weekend, but in these sprint weekends it is all you have got.

Oscar Piastri was fastest in FP1 and by 0.404 seconds. This is a very long lap, so the gaps should be on the large side. Max Verstappen was second +0.404, Norris +0.504, Russell +0.576, Leclerc 0.906, Antonelli +0.957 and Hamilton +1.063.

Piastri was helped by getting a nice tow down the long straight which gave him extra pace, but it was a good lap. The McLarens are seemingly running more downforce than the rest, giving up some straight-line speed for better cornering performance.

Piastri has been 2nd and 3rd in the two previous sprint qualifiers in 2025, and he has also been the fastest in GP qualifying three times in 2025. In the sprint qualifying here in 2023, he was second. You have to expect Piastri to be very much in the mix later.

Lando Norris had scored four of the last five GP pole positions but has not done so well in the sprint qualifiers, having been 6th and 3rd. He was 5th here in the 2023 sprint qualifier. He made a mistake on his final qualifying sim run today, and he should be right up there again.

Verstappen In The Mix

Verstappen got the sprint pole here in 2023, he has been 4th and 2nd in the two sprints in 2025 and he has had three ‘proper’ poles. He has only been on pole position once in Belgium, but he has been the fastest qualifier here for the last four years. It was just a venue at which Red Bull decided to take grid penalties for new parts as they knew Verstappen could recover so many positions in the race. It is hard not to see him in the mix today.

Ferrari were running their new suspension, and the rear of the car was hitting the ground a lot, and hard. My guess is that the new setup needs some adjustment, and Leclerc did miss some running in FP1 when he came in to have setup changes. Both cars were nearly a second off the pace. Maybe the old spec would have been better for the sprint part of this race? They still look to be off the pace of McLaren and Verstappen.

The interesting runner was George Russell in the Mercedes. He was fourth fastest and 0.576 slower, but he only ran the medium tyre in his qualifying sims. On the soft tyre later? He will be a lot closer.

The weather looks set to be dry but there is a chance we might get a shower late in the session, hopefully we get a straightforward session.

Summary

It looks like another McLaren vs. Verstappen battle for this sprint pole. Max is the master around here over one lap. The McLaren is yet to get a sprint pole in 2025, but in proper qualifying they have won eight from twelve.

The dark horse has to George Russell. Toto Wolff was happy with the conditions, which is promising, and when Russell puts the soft tyre on, he will be closer.

You need a little luck around this track, or meticulous planning and teamwork. Getting a tow down the Kemmel straight is worth much gold. A driver can get it by chance from a car in front, or because the team gets their drivers to attempt to help each other. That is not as easy as it sounds, and of course the two drivers might not want to help their teammate. McLaren for example.

Verstappen might have a better chance of getting some help as he has his teammate, and the two Racing Bulls. Hadjar and Lawson’s boss of two weeks ago is now the boss at Red Bull. Maybe they might want to keep in his good books by helping Max with a tow should they be in the right place? They are Red Bull contracted drivers after all.

Piastri is the 2.38 favourite, Norris 3.20, Verstappen 4.50 and Russell 13.00.

Selections

2025 Belgian Sprint Qualifying Tip: 1 point Max Verstappen to be fastest in Sprint Qualifying @ 4.50 generally available

2025 Belgian Sprint Qualifying Tip: 0.5 point e/w George Russell to be fastest in Sprint Qualifying @ 13.00 with Betfair, Skybet, BET365

-JamesPunt