2025 Brazil GP Raceday Preview

Now, it is time for James Punt’s 2025 Brazil GP Raceday preview. James kept things ticking over in qualifying, hopefully we can finish the weekend off with a flourish.

2025 Brazil GP Raceday

Interlagos rarely disappoints when it comes to providing entertainment and so far this weekend, it has lived up to its reputation. There may be more to come as we have a rather different weather forecast to the one we had on Thursday.

Sunday was supposed to the day that we didn’t have much in the way of rain, and any that did fall was supposed to be in the morning. It has rained this morning but I am getting mixed forecasts. Some saying dry but overcast and cooler, but others giving a 50%+ chance of showers during the race. That is very annoying as it does change things if it rains, but I can see nothing on the radar.

Strange Starting Grid

We have a strange looking starting grid in places. It is no surprise to see Lando Norris on pole, or Leclerc in third but we have young Antonelli on the front row for the first time in an actual Grand Prix.

Issak Hadjar is fifth, his second best ever qualifying performance. Pierre Gasly is back in the top 10 for the first time in eight races, and we have both Red Bulls failing to get out of Q1 for the first time in many years. The latter was the biggest shock of the weekend so far.

I have heard people saying that Verstappen started from 17th last year and won. He starts from 16th today, so he can still do it. Well, if we get about five safety cars and a red flag, then maybe, but he had a fast car last year when was just caught out by a yellow flag in Q1. He is 16th today because his car is SLOW. There is no hard luck story, the team just really screwed up.

RB Lacking Balance

Max was very unhappy with the car’s balance in the Sprint part of the weekend and they had to try and fix that. For once, they took a wrong turn and made the car even worse. The cars are not allowed to be changed after qualifying, with the exception of changing wing settings if the weather turns wet. Unless of course, the team break the parc ferme rules and accept a pit lane start. And that is exactly what they have done.

Red Bull have thrown the kitchen sink at the car. Verstappen has a brand-new power unit and made various setup changes to try and make the car more driveable. How will that work out? Your guess is as good as mine. It should be better, but the changes made after the Sprint race were supposed to make it better and that didn’t work.

Lewis A Loser

Another big loser was Lewis Hamilton. He only qualified in thirteenth place. That was only a couple of places worse than he was in Sprint qualifying. Hamilton was strangely calm about the whole thing, but the fact is that he is being put to shame by Leclerc.

He has been a bad investment for Ferrari. He might have shifted a lot of merch, but he is looking increasingly replaceable. At least Ferrari were able to recover some ground in the sprint race, so Hamilton might be able to score a few minor points.

Norris Odds On

Norris is the 1.40 favourite and it is his to lose. He has been fastest in every session and while his win in the Sprint race was not totally convincing, I would say that was due to the switch to the soft tyres when the race was red flagged. Even the McLaren was wearing them out and they are not a good race tyre.

Eight of the last eleven races here have been won from pole position. Norris has converted four of his five pole positions into race wins in 2025. He is hard to oppose.

The Mercedes have been McLaren’s closest rivals. I backed the wrong one in qualifying yesterday. Russell is usually the better qualifier but he just couldn’t get to grips with the soft tyres. Antonelli has been second in sprint qualifying, the sprint race and in Grand Prix qualifying and he is going well for a track debutant.

Antonelli has only had one podium so far this season, in Canada, but he has never started from second place. The Mercedes is a car that is very much the same in the races as it is in qualifying, so I expect he can keep up his pace.

The driver starting in second place has finished on the podium in seven of the last ten races here. Last year’s race was a freak show and I wouldn’t use that as any sort of form guide, so it is more like seven of the last nine.

2025 Brazil GP Raceday Tip: 1 point Kimi Antonelli to finish on the podium @ 1.85 with Ladbrokes

We are used to seeing Issak Hadjar in the top 10, this will be his twelfth time starting in the top 10. The Racing Bulls do have a tendency to struggle to match their one lap pace in the races but he should be OK today. Russell will be hard to keep behind, but there is no one obviously faster behind him. It is hard to see Hadjar making much forward progress, however.

The same goes for his teammate, Liam Lawson, who starts seventh. The Kiwi has converted six of his seven top ten starts into a points finish. The driver starting seventh has a good points scoring record, if they actually make the start.

Twice in the last eight races here, the driver who qualified seventh, crashed on the way to the grid. When they did start, the driver in 7th has finished in the points in seven of the last eight races here. Lawson is 1.83 to finish in the points and he should do it. However, I don’t really rate him. This is a narrow track and when it comes to close racing, he does tend to hit other cars.

The Bank Of Gasly

Pierre Gasly has been a nice, if unexpected, little earner for us this weekend and I am happy to go in again. He has shown top 10 pace all weekend and just got unlucky in sprint qualifying. He looks a decent price to win Ladbrokes Group 3.

Gasly is up against Nico Hulkenebrg, who starts one place behind him, and the two Williams who start twelfth and fifteenth. Williams do not go well here and have struggled so far. Hulkenberg is the real threat but he has been a little slower than Gasly in an Alpine that has found its feet around this track.

Gasly goes well here, with four top tens in his last five races, including two podiums. It looks like a bit of a match bet and I’ll stick with The Gasman.

2025 Brazil GP Raceday Tip: 1 point Pierre Gasly to win Ladbrokes Group 2 @ 2.80

I am not going have anymore bets in this race. The weather forecast is just too uncertain to be having any big bets or to have any speculative ones either, it might well stay dry.

Hopefully Norris can have an uneventful race and get a firmer grip on the Championship.

-JamesPunt