2025 British GP Betting Preview

Now, it is time for James Punt’s 2025 British GP betting preview. Austria couldn’t have gone much better, hopefully we can keep the momentum going at Silverstone.  

2025 British GP Preview

We are finally getting going! It was a 17.08-point profit at last weekend’s Austrian GP, reducing the seasons losses to -13.60. That’s nearly 22 points recovered in the last two races. Onwards and upwards!

This weekend we head to Silverstone and the British GP. This will be the 60th time the race has been held at Silverstone and some of them were not won by Lewis Hamilton. Sir Lewis Hamilton has won a record nine British GPs, including last year’s thriller, made even better by having tipped him up at 6.00 on raceday.

2025 British GP: The Weather Forecast

The weather played a big part in last year’s race and it was a very challenging weather forecast for the Sunday. This weekend also has some rain in the forecast, but any that does fall is expected to be light. The extremely high temperatures seen at the start of the weeks will have dropped to 25 degrees on Friday.

The forecasters are not in agreement this weekend. Some have Friday as clear and sunny, others have cloud building and a cloudy afternoon, but it looks very likely to be dry all day.

Saturday will be cooler at 22 degrees and cloudy with a 30 – 60% chance of drizzly rain, depending on the forecaster. Any rain is expected to be light and may not even require an intermediate tyre, but qualifying may be affected.

Raceday

Raceday has the forecasters split again, but really only by the degree of cloud cover. The trend in the forecasts has been moving away from a cloudy day to it being partly cloudy and 22 degrees. The chance of light rain is around 30%.

At this time of year, the sun is very strong. If we have a lot of cloud cover, the tarmac will be relatively cool, maybe low 30s, but if the sun is beating down on it, it will rise considerably.

This is what happened in Austria. The free practice sessions saw a lot of cloud cover and track temps in the mid-thirties. In qualifying the sun was out and the track temperatures rose to 48 degrees and in the race it was 50 degrees. That jump in track temperature killed Mercedes’ chances and also that of Red Bull and Alpine (in the race). Mercedes, in particular, will be praying for cloud cover.

As ever at Silverstone, there will be a stiff breeze. At least it will be a fairly consistent westerly one, and not switching from day to day.

2025 British GP: The Track

The Silverstone circuit has undergone various tweaks to its layout over the years, but it remains an old school, very fast track. There are eighteen corners (most of them are proper corners) and there are a lot of fast, sweeping, long duration corners.

There are two DRS zones and overtaking is possible. It is a challenging track for the drivers due to the many fast corners, and it is hard on the tyres for the same reason.

The pole position driver has won six of the eleven races here in the turbo-hybrid era, with four being won from second place on the grid, and one from sixth.

Attrition Rate

The attrition rate over the same period averages out at 3.54, but of more relevance is that the last five have seen just 2.60, and only one of those saw more than two. The average of not classified drivers in 2025 is 2.27.

All of the last seven races have seen at least two and an average of 2.43. There are plenty of run-off areas here (there needs to be due to the high-speed nature of the track), and drivers can get away with mistakes that would be more heavily punished at other tracks.

The Not Classified drivers have tended to come further down the grid than is the case in Austria. In the last ten races, two pole sitters have been DNFs. The drivers starting 2nd to 7th have always finished. A few may have dropped out of the top 10, but the attrition rates here have tended to miss the drivers at or near the front.

2025 British GP: Team-by-Team

McLaren 

Had their fourth 1-2 finish of the season in Austria last weekend. That was a track that was always going to play to their strengths, but most do and this should be another, but the cooler weather will lessen their dominance. Norris has yet to win a British GP, but he has been on the podium for the last two years. Piastri has finished fourth in his two previous starts here.

The two drivers have settled on different front suspension setups. A new one was introduced in Canada and Norris has chosen to go with that as it gives him more feel for the front end. Piastri has decided to stick with the original set up.

Home Support

It will be interesting to see to what degree the home crowd is up for Norris, or is Silverstone still a Hamilton fortress? Some drivers can raise their game for their home races and use the support as motivation. Think Mansell and Hamilton, but a lot of the good British drivers got at least one win here. Damon Hill, Jonny Herbert, David Coulthard (x2) all got wins between the Mansell era and the Hamilton era.

On the downside, a home race means extra work media wise. Drivers can get distracted, but Norris is no rookie. He has seven races under his belt at Silverstone, always finished and only once outside the points. He has finished on the podium for the last two even though he had to jump through the media hoops. Lando says he embraces everything about his home race, so he should be OK.

Ferrari 

Made progress with yet another upgrade in Austria, but they are still having to lift and coast at the end of the straights to stop the car bottoming out and wearing down the skid block. With Silverstone being such a fast track, that characteristic could be problem. This a track where the car is flat out for 70% of the lap so lifting and coasting is going to hurt their pace. Ferrari need that suspension upgrade before they can get the most out of the car.

When is it coming? Sadly, we won’t know until they unveil any new parts on Friday, but the word is that it will be this weekend or in three weeks’ time at Spa.

Lewis Hamilton has won nine British GPs, and he has never been off the podium in the turbo-hybrid era. That is twelve consecutive podiums (including the 70th Anniversary GP held here the after the 2020 British GP).

In his nineteen races at Silverstone, Hamilton has only been beaten by his teammate twice. The first was on debut to Alonso, the other in 2013 in his first season with Mercedes, when he lost out to Nico Rosberg.

Winning most team

Leclerc has had three podiums here but has been ninth and fourteenth in the last two years. Ferrari have won two of the last seven races at Silverstone and they are the winning most team here.

More recently, the team have scored podium finishes in ten of the last fourteen races. It is unrealistic to see them winning this year, but the upgrades put on the car last weekend did improve things. If Mercedes struggle again, they would be racing Verstappen for the final podium place. Leclerc has three podiums from the last four races in 2025.

Silverstone Mojo

Leclerc is 10-1 over Hamilton in the races so far in 2025 (8-3 in qualifying). Will Hamilton use his Silverstone mojo to get one over his teammate, or will the rout continue? It might be a market to pay attention to for once.

Hamilton was closer to Leclerc in qualifying in Austria than usual, so he comes here with a bit more of a spring in his step. However, he admits that he is suffering with more rear tyre degradation than Leclerc does and that is hurting his race pace.

The big question here is whether Ferrari will finally go with the suspension upgrade, and whether it can make a significant difference.

Mercedes 

Mercedes powered cars have won fifteen British GPs, underlining that this is a power circuit and they dominated after the introduction of the turbo-hybrid power units in 2014, winning eight of the last eleven British GPs. Those years of dominance have passed as the formula has become more of an aero formula since the ground effect regulations came into force in 2022.

Silverstone has been a strong track for Mercedes since Nico Rosberg got their first British GP win as a manufacturer in 2013. They had a distinct power advantage for years and it is hard to say which was more influential in that period. The Hamilton factor, or the power factor? It was a bit of both of course, but power was the key.

Needs Everything Right

The 2025 Mercedes needs everything to be just right if it is to get back on the podium. It needs cooler weather and with plenty of clouds in the forecast, they should get that, most of the time.

They need the right kind of track surface, smooth and flat, and Silverstone is pretty smooth these days. The car doesn’t like fast, long duration corners which stress the tyres. There are a lot of those at Silverstone.

Mercedes qualified 1-2 here last year and Hamilton won a race that McLaren should have, so this year’s Merc should go well enough, but I doubt that they will be quite as competitive as in 2024, especially if the sun breaks through.

Low Temperatures

Last year the air temperature in qualifying was just fourteen degrees and the track temperature was twenty three degrees. That enabled them to qualify 1-2. The race itself was cold and wet and even then, it was getting away from them, but McLaren dropped the strategy ball and Hamilton picked up the win.

George Russell has not had much joy here with a fifth place in 2023 his only point scoring race. He has had two DNFs in the last three years. Antonelli makes his F1 Silverstone debut and he only raced here in F2 last year, winning the sprint race and retiring in the feature race. He will have a three-place grid penalty for causing a collision in Austria.

Mercedes went from winning in Canada, to finishing a best placed fifth in Austria and over a minute behind the winner. That is how sensitive their car is to track temperatures and the nature of the circuit layouts. I suspect they will be better here than in Austria, but not as good as in Canada.

Red Bull 

Suffered their first pointless race since the opening race of the 2022 season in Bahrain (77 races). A stinging result on home turf.

Verstappen was the innocent victim of Antonelli’s mistake and Tsunoda was driving like a headless chicken, finishing sixteenth and last after picking up a ten second penalty. The game is up for Red Bull now Championship wise. They have some upgrades in the pipeline, but Verstappen is not holding out much hope that they will lift him to McLaren’s level.

Mercedes Distraction

Verstappen is being courted by Mercedes which is a distraction for him and also for the two Mercedes drivers, one of whom would have to make way for Max if he were to join. Verstappen is a very competitive individual who is used to fighting for race wins and Drivers’ Championships.

Now that is over for 2025, it will be interesting to see how motivated he is. He is a new dad, so that is a bit of a distraction, and he is having to think about what he does career wise. 2026 will tell us who has cracked the new regulations and who hasn’t. Does he jump ship at the end of this year, or hang on till the end of 2026? Whatever it is, his head is not as much in the moment as it usually is.

Verstappen will still be a competitor, and the Red Bull will like the fast corners here, but his record at Silverstone is not his best. The crowd hates him and he knows it. He has won twice here and had three second places from eleven starts, but he has underperformed compared to his usual form over the years. Tsunoda has a couple of tenth places here, but he looks to be a broken man, failing to score in the last five races in 2025.

Verstappen is a podium contender and the Red Bull will not face the big temperature fluctuations which threw them last weekend. But will they face stiff competition from Ferrari?

Williams 

Still nineteen points clear of the sixth placed team, Racing Bulls, but Williams have scored just one point in the last three races, in which time the Racing Bulls have closed the gap by thirteen points, Haas by two, Aston Martin by thirteen and Sauber by nineteen.

Williams are the lowest scoring team in the last three races, and reliability is to blame. Overheating power units have done for Albon’s last two races and Sainz had difficulties getting off the line in the formation lap last weekend, before his rear brakes caught fire and he was out of the race before the start.

They come to their home race in a bit of a shambles, but it is a track on which the car should be competitive, if it doesn’t break down.

Mixed Record

Carlos Sainz has a very mixed record here. He won his first F1 race here in 2022, but had just two points finishes in his first seven. He is usually a steady points scorer at most tracks, and he has done so for the last four races. However, given the fact that Williams are struggling to get their cars started, or indeed to the finish of races, he may add to his three Silverstone DNFs.

Albon has had four top eight finishes from six starts but comes here on the back of three consecutive DNFs. With cooler weather than was the case in Canada or Austria, the overheating issues should not be so great.

Williams do have a good record of getting to the finish on home soil, with just two DNFs in the turbo-hybrid era and if they can continue that trend, points are possible, but the competition is stronger than it was earlier in the season.

Williams are hard to back with confidence given their recent woes, but there is the potential for a good result.

Haas 

Ocon has started picking up minor points again while Bearman is pointless in his last seven races. Their qualifying performances remain pretty dire, but their race pace is decent. Bearman has finished eleventh in the last two races.

Both have taken advantage of other’s DNFs in those races, so they are nothing great, but at least they are reliable. As always, best looked at after qualifying. Ocon has scored five top 9 finishes here, but nothing in the last three. Bearman has raced here in the junior formulas but not with any notable success.

Aston Martin 

Being carried by Fernando Alonso again. He has scored fourteen points from the last three races, while Stroll has not scored any in the last ten GPs. Better cars having DNFs has helped him, but he can get a top ten on merit now. Fernando has finished top eight in his last five races at Silverstone. He should be in the hunt for more points.

Sauber 

With twenty points scored from the last three races, Sauber are, on that recent form (since their Barcelona upgrade) the fourth highest points scoring team, beaten only by McLaren, Ferrari and Mercedes.

They had their first double points finish of the season last weekend, and it could have, should have been better. Bortoleto was solid all weekend and never looked like being anywhere else but a top 10 finisher. Could he have been a place or two higher? Possibly.

Could Hulkenberg have landed our top six finisher bet? Absolutely. He was plumb last in qualifying but took advantage of the one nonstarter and three DNFs and drove a good race to finish ninth. His teammate made Q3, and so should Hulkenberg. He had a better race car than Alonso and Lawson, but just had too much ground to make up, finishing ninth.

Good Record

Hulkenberg has a good record at Silverstone. Since 2014 he has had nine starts (one DNS) and finished in the points eight times and had three top 6 finishes. His Sauber is not the best car he has driven and a top 6 would need some attrition from the top three teams and Verstappen.

However, already in 2025 we have seen top six finishes for Albon (x3), Ocon, Hadjar, Stroll, Lawson and Hulkenberg himself, so it is not out of the question.

Bortoleto had an F3 second place in a sprint race here and a couple of top 6 finishes in F2.

Sauber are very much in the hunt for more points this weekend. Silverstone has not been a happy hunting ground for the team with just one points finish in the last twelve years, but that can change given the car’s current level of performance.

Alpine 

Gasly can pop up with some good qualifying performances, and on the quicker tracks, which is a bit ironic for a car with the least powerful power unit, but from his six Q3s in qualifying in 2025, Gasly has converted just two into points.

He is becoming increasingly frustrated with the car and it is a team going nowhere. There no updates planned and I imagine Flavio will fire a few people to make himself look in charge, but the fact is that the team is being run down, ready for sale to the highest bidder.

Silverstone doesn’t have much in the way of slow corners which will help, (the Alpine was at its worst in Monaco) and I won’t be surprised to see Gasly in or not far off Q3 on Saturday. However, come raceday, things are likely to head south.

Weak Power Unit

Their power unit has a very weak energy recover system which is exposed over a race distance rather than a flying lap. Add to that poor tyre degradation and you can see why Gasly struggles on a Sunday. He hasn’t scored here in the last five races and that poor run should be extended. That said, he might be a value H2H bet on Saturday, if the right match up was available.

Colapinto finds himself on Briatore’s chopping block. To succeed in F1 you need to be in the right place at the right time, and Colapinto certainly isn’t in that position.

Summary: 2025 British GP Race Winner

McLaren remain the team to beat, but they may not enjoy the sort of dominance that they showed in Austria. There are at their most dominant when the track is hot enough to give the other teams grief in the tyre degradation department.

With the weather forecast indicating that we will have a warm, but mostly cloudy weekend (the degree of cloud cover is not yet agreed), with the chance of some light rain at times, the track itself will be relatively cool.

Their two drivers are very closely matched. A lot can depend on Lando Norris’ level of confidence going into each weekend and that is hard to guess. Last week, I guessed right. He was going to a track that he loves and has gone well on before, and he did the job well.

Norris Can Strike

Is this likely to be a going weekend for Norris? I think so. It is his home race, and he has gone well here before. He now has the car to win and as the best chance for a British winner, he will have the crowd right behind him.

That support has helped other British drivers to up their games here in the past. Norris is also experienced enough to know what will be involved media duties wise and he should cope well with the added distractions.

Piastri can keep his head down, stay in the background and do his best to be fast enough to put some doubts in Norris’ mind. The Aussie is a much more consistent performer. He doesn’t have the highs and lows that Norris experiences.

When Norris is up for it, he is just a bit quicker. When Norris has his doubts, Piastri is faster. It really is a question of guessing when and where Norris is going to on his A-game. I will take the chance that he is likely to be on it this weekend and he can land his first British GP win. However, at the odds, it is not a bet to be going mad on.

2025 British GP Tip: 1 point Lando Norris to win the British GP @ 2.75 with Betfred

Podium Finish

Looking at the podium finish betting, it is tight. McLaren have taken two of the three podium slots in eight of the eleven races so far. Realistically, we are looking for the driver most likely to fill that one remaining slot.

Realistically, there are only five runners in this market. Verstappen (5), Russell (5), Leclerc (4) Antonelli (1) and Hamilton (0).

Verstappen and Russell with five podiums each will be fancied, but of more interest to me are the two Ferraris. Leclerc has four podiums, but three of those have come in the last four races. Ferrari have been busy in the update department, more than I would have thought, and there is more to come. We just don’t know exactly when.

Hamilton Hitting Form

Lewis Hamilton is yet to finish on the podium in a GP this season. Two fourth places are his best results. One of those was in last weekend’s race, where he also had his joint best qualifying result (4th). Ferrari added a significant upgrade to their floor for last weekend’s race, and it worked. It may be even better this weekend after a week to crunch the data gathered in Austria.

Ferrari have a suspension upgrade to come, and that is seen as being the key to unlocking the car’s true potential, if it works. But we don’t know when it will come. It is said to be this weekend, or for the next race in Belgium. Could they run it this weekend? I think they would love to run it this weekend.

Silverstone is a real test of high-speed performance. Ferrari are fine in low speeds, they were good in Monaco, but on high-speed stuff they are not able to go full pelt without risking wearing down the skid block and getting another DQ. This would be an ideal testing ground. Even just to run it on Friday, to see if it could be a goer for the business end of the weekend.

Home Race

It is also Hamilton’s home race. He has a phenomenal record here and he will be attracting a heap of media coverage. Where better to unleash the beast. If they could get Hamilton on the podium, it would be like a race win. It would also go a long way to justifying the chairman’s decision to spend a fortune on signing him, and that is a big incentive.

Of course, Hamilton would have to outperform Charles Leclerc, and he has only done that once all season. I can’t see Ferrari favouring Hamilton. Leclerc is their number one in 2025, but if Hamilton is going to get the better of Leclerc anywhere, Silverstone must be one of his best chances.

Max Too Short

Verstappen is 1.67 to finish on the podium, Russell 2.50. Russell has never finished on the podium here and never finished better than fifth. If the sun comes out his chances recede. Verstappen has five podiums at Silverstone, but he does not have the best car anymore and his odds are short. Antonelli doesn’t really enter my calculations as the track and conditions are not ideal.

The value bet is a toss-up between Leclerc and Hamilton. On 2025 form, Leclerc is the call and 3.25 is a decent price that I wouldn’t put anyone off taking, but I have talked myself into having a punt on Hamilton. Twelve consecutive Silverstone podiums just sways it for me.

2025 British GP Tip: 1 point Lewis Hamilton to finish on the podium @ 3.75 with Boylesports, Betvictor, Skybet, Betfair

Top 6

I have tried with a couple of Top 6 bets this season, but with no success. Hulkenberg last week was a good call, but by qualifying last, he left too much to do.

Despite having four teams that are clear of the midfield, we have had six different drivers from midfield teams who have scored at least one top six finish.

Alonso has been knocking on the top six door with back-to-back seventh place finishes in the last two races and Hulkenberg and Bortoleto are now also in the frame. Liam Lawson was not on my radar last weekend, but he picked a second top six for Racing Bulls.

It helps that Tsunoda is not in the frame, but the reality is the midfielders need some attrition from the big four teams to make a top 6 possible.

Last Weekend

Last weekend we had a Mercedes taking out the faster of the two Red Bulls. Norris crashing in Canada opened the door a little, but the best midfielder was Alonso in seventh place. A safety deployment at the right time was enough for Hulkenberg to finish sixth (promoted to fifth) in Spain even without any attrition at the top of the field.

Clearly the midfielders have a chance to make the top six, but is Silverstone the kind of race where it can happen? Hulkenberg was sixth for Haas last year, but he had qualified sixth. The best midfielder here in 2023 was Alonso in seventh, despite the two Ferraris finishing ninth and tenth. Mick Schumacher was eighth in 2022 for Haas, Alonso seventh for Alpine in 2021 when the pole sitter was a DNF.

The pattern has been for the midfielders to be close but no cigar at Silverstone top six wise. Stroll was sixth for Force India in the 70th Anniversary race here in 2020, but he had qualified sixth. Renault had a double top six finish in 2020, but both had qualified top nine.

Qualifying Key

It looks like if one of the midfielders is to make the top 6 on Sunday, they will need to have qualified in or very close to the top six. Of the midfielders in 2025, only five have had a top six in qualifying. Alonso has had two, Albon, Gasly, Hadjar and Lawson all have one.

Alonso is of some interest. He has had two top sixes in qualifying and has finished seventh in the last two races. This is Aston Martin’s home race as they are based just across the road from the gates of Silverstone. It is a big deal for them.

In the last four years here, they have had their high finisher placing 8th, 9th, and 7th for the last two years. Alonso’s last four races here have seen him finish 7th, 5th, 7th and 8th. It may be another good value loser, but Alonso makes enough appeal for a small bet.

2025 British GP Tip: 0.5 point Fernando Alonso to finish in the top 6 @ 5.00 with Livescorebet

Points Finish

We did well with this market last weekend with Bortoleto at 10.00 and Hulkenberg at 3.50, but it is a very competitive market. The only drivers not to score in 2025 were/are driving the second Alpine, Doohan and Colapinto. That says a lot about Alpine.

I am surprised to see Hulkenberg still being offered at odds over 3.00. He is on a run of three straight top 10s and while there was helpful attrition in Austria last weekend, he had started at the back of the grid. He made up many more places than the four gifted to him.

His qualifying in 2025 has been underwhelming, even with the upgraded car, but Bortoleto made Q3 last weekend in the Sauber, and Hulkenberg should be able to qualify much nearer to the top 10 than he has done so far.

Hulkenberg has had nine races at Silverstone and finished in the points eight times, so he knows his way round. Good recent form, good track form, but the market has the likes of Gasly at 2.75? I have to repeat, the Sauber’s recent run of good results has not been about luck, but the fact that they put upgrades on the car that has made them competitive.

2025 British GP Tip: 2 points Nico Hulkenberg to finish in the top 10 @ 3.25 with Boylesports, Betvictor, Skybet

I think that will do for now. There will be the usual updated for qualifying on Saturday and the race on Sunday.

-JamesPunt