2025 British GP Qualifying Preview

Now, it is time for James Punt’s 2025 British GP qualifying preview. He has already posted an in-depth, team by team preview with four ante-post bets, you can read that here.   

2025 British GP Qualifying

The final practice session ended under a red flag and that was not long after the cars had taken to the track after a previous red flag. The first was for a bit of bodywork lying on the track, the second for a car breaking crash for Bortoleto.

It meant that no one got to set their final flying lap. Lewis Hamilton was caught out by the first red flag and that was after he had gone fastest in S1 and set a personal best in S2. The Aston Martins didn’t get to set any flying laps on the soft tyres, so there are a few more unknowns than is ideal. What is clear is that we are in for a very close qualifying session.

Dry & Cloudy

The weather will be dry, but cloudy. The track temperature today is 25 degrees, and that is fifteen degrees down on yesterday’s practice sessions. That seems to be giving some drivers a problem getting the tyres up to the right temperature. It is also very windy and that is making it hard for the drivers to be confident in certain corners. It is tricky out there.

When the session was stopped Leclerc was 0.068s faster than Piastri, 0.087s than Verstappen and 0.108s than Norris. Hamilton was on course to join that group, but where exactly he would have ended up, we can only guess, but he is in the mix. I would say we have a five-way fight for pole.

I am not putting Mercedes in the picture as they have not looked on the pace all weekend and Russell couldn’t stay on the track today, despite the track temperatures falling into their comfort zone.

McLaren

Not dominating but still right there. Across the eleven GP qualifying sessions, Piastri has the lowest average qualifying position at 2.27. He has had three pole positions but none in the last four. Norris had had four pole positions and three of those have been in the last four race weekends. I just about make Norris the lead McLaren driver and he has never been outqualified by a teammate at Silverstone. Norris is the 3.00 favourite, Piastri 4.00.

Ferrari

Leclerc was second to Norris in FP2 and fastest in FP3, by a whisker. Remember, this is a very long lap and to have the top four in FP3 separated by a tenth of a second is ridiculous. Lewis Hamilton didn’t get to finish his flying lap in FP3, but he looked to be right on the pace of Leclerc. The Silverstone factor is helping him get the most out of himself.

Leclerc is 8-3 vs. Hamilton in qualifying in 2025, but Hamilton is 2-1 in the last three. On this track, it is a toss-up between the two as to who will be faster. Last weekend we got 51.00 about Leclerc for pole, and e/w terms the top three. Today he is 4.50 and most firms are going win only. Hamilton is 6.00.

Red Bull

All over the place on Friday, 0.087s off the fastest time today. The fact that Tsunoda was fifth fastest, albeit 0.606 off the fastest time, shows that the car is quick here. Verstappen has had three poles in 2025 and has the second-best qualifying average this season. He is bound to be right in there. Verstappen is 8.00 with one firm, but a general 7.00.

2025 British GP Qualifying Summary

This is the most competitive qualifying session of the year so far, in terms of the number of drivers who have realistic chances to be on pole.

Recent form says Norris is the man most likely to get pole and he has been right there all weekend. Leclerc is a one lap monster and is capable of getting Ferrari’s first pole of the season.

This is Hamilton’s manor and he knows how to do the job here. Piastri is Mr. Consistency and has only finished outside the top three in qualifying once in the previous eleven sessions in 2025 (and that was a fourth place in Miami). And then there is Verstappen, who can do special things even in a slightly slower car.

The sensible choice is an e/w bet on Piastri. At 1/5 the odds for the top three he would be a small loss if placed, but you should be getting a free hit on the win part of the bet. Of course, this is more competitive than usual, and it is no sure thing that he stays top three, but he has a very good chance.

Obvious Choice

The obvious choice is Norris given that he has scored three of the last four pole positions, but at 3.00, the value is marginal.

Hamilton is for romantics, but not hopeless romantics. His pace has been strong all weekend and he will be willed on by the huge crowd. He loves it. Hamilton has had seven pole positions here, but the last was back in 2020.

Leclerc has never qualified on the front row here and while I was delighted to back him last weekend at 51.00, odds of just 4.50 this weekend suggest the value is not here.

Just making any one of the five the favourite is hard. That suggests that Verstappen is the value bet at 9.00. He has been on pole here in two of the last four races and has manged to finish top three in seven qualifying sessions in 2025, getting pole three times. It is so close that I am only going in with small stakes, and it is with Hills, so small stakes are all you will get.

2025 British GP qualifying Tip: 0.5 point e/w Max Verstappen to be the fastest qualifier @ 9.00 (1/5 the odds 1-3)

In the midfield, the Racing Bulls have looked good in the three sessions so far, both drivers in the top 10 in all three. Lawson has made Q3 in two of the last four race weekends and is feeling more confident after a strong sixth place in qualifying and in the race last weekend.

The top 10 in Q3 included Bearman and Tsunoda. That pushed Lawson down to tenth and he is on the cusp. But can Bearman and Tsunoda keep it in the top ten later? Bearman’s best qualifying performance in 2025 has been a tenth place in Japan, his only Q3 appearance. Tsunoda has not made Q3 for the last five qualifying sessions.

2025 British GP qualifying Tip: 1 point Liam Lawson to reach Q3 @ 2.00 with Ladbrokes

Match Bets

Norris is 6-5 in qualifying against Piastri and 3-1 in the last four. He has never lost to a teammate at Silverstone in seven starts.

2025 British GP qualifying Tip: 1 point Norris to out qualify Piastri @1.67 with Ladbrokes, Hills

The last bet is a qualifying double. I fancy Verstappen for pole and he looks the obvious choice to outqualify Russell. Odds of 1.50 are good enough as he is 8-3 vs. Russell in 2025. Alex Albon has been quick all weekend and at least four places higher than Sainz in every session. The Spaniard has been bang out of form in qualifying lately, not even making Q2 in the last three.

2025 British GP qualifying Tip: 1 point Verstappen to beat Russell and Albon to beat Sainz @ 2.17 with livescorebet

-JamesPunt