2025 Canadian GP Qualifying Preview

Now, it is time for James Punt’s 2025 Canadian GP qualifying preview. You can check out James’ outright preview and ante-post tips by clicking here.

2025 Canadian GP Qualifying

The three free practice sessions are over and we are about to go into what promises to be a very close qualifying session. FP3 saw Lando Norris fastest but just 0.078 faster than Charles Leclerc in the Ferrari. George Russell is looking very competitive and just 0.151 off Norris. Max Verstappen is lurking but 0.237 off the pace.

The Circuit de Giles Villeneuve is not a long lap and that means the gaps between drivers in qualifying tends to be smaller than at most circuits. Last year, Russell and Verstappen set exactly the same time in qualifying, but it was Russell who started on pole after he set his lap time first.

Team-by-Team Outlook

McLaren 

Brought a small suspension change and a new front wing to test on Friday. The new wing will not be used today or Sunday. They were not happy with the car on Friday but Norris was only a fraction off the best time and was fastest today.

Piastri has not looked good so far and had an interface with the Wall of Champions in FP3. He lost track time as the car was repaired. Norris must be sensing that he can take a chunk out of the Aussie’s Championship lead. Norris is going for a hattrick of pole positions and is hard to oppose.

Red Bull 

Max is always in the mix but this track is not ideal for the car. Tsunoda has the same spec car as Max this weekend but he is still way off the pace. He will do well to get out of Q1.

Mercedes 

Enjoying the cooler conditions and the smooth track surface. Russell was on pole here last year and is in the hunt once again. Mr. Saturday was right up there in FP3 and is very much in the hunt to get his fifth front row in qualifying and maybe a repeat pole in Montreal.

Williams 

Very much suited by the track lay out. Anything other than a double Q3 performance would be a disappointment. They were ninth and tenth in FP3, but I think they have top seven or eighth place pace.

Ferrari 

Charles Leclerc only ran nine laps on Friday after crashing in FP1. They were half a second off Mercedes on Friday. Leclerc was not that bothered by missing all that lap time and came out to be second fastest in FP3.

He is 7-2 with Hamilton in qualifying and even on a track where Hamilton is very strong, he can extend that record. Pole Contender? Their qualifying form in 2025 suggests not, but this is another one dimensional kind of track, so they may have found a sweet spot.

Aston Martin 

Fifth fastest in FP2 for Alonso, but Stroll crashed and failed to set a time. Alonso has made Q3 in the last three weekends since the Aston Martin upgrade. Stroll might be punching walls again. Alonso said the car was undriveable at the end of FP3. He was sixth quickest. He makes Q3, Stroll doesn’t.

Racing Bulls 

Should be able to get one car into Q3. Lawson had been going well on Friday but has just dropped back a little. Hadjar was eleventh in the last two sessions.

Alpine 

Gasly was looking reasonable, but he often does on Friday. Colapinto as poor as always. Q2 beckons for Gasly, but another Q1 exit for Colapinto is likely.

Sauber 

Saving medium tyres for the business end of the weekend which may account for their lack of pace in FP1. Hopefully they can get closer to the top 10 in qualifying but with Williams much more competitive this weekend, it will be hard. They were nowhere in FP3 and I fear I have put the curse on them.

Haas 

Firmly at the rear end on Friday but Bearman was looking quick before he smacked the Wall of Champions but survived. I never know what Haas will do.

2025 Canadian GP qualifying Summary

Last year Russell and Verstappen set exactly the same time in qualifying but Russell was awarded the pole position as he set the time first. Russell being fastest in FP2 was the first time a non-McLaren, Red Bull or Ferrari has been fastest in FP2 this year. He was second fastest in FP2 here last year. Russell was fastest for much of FP3 and I feel he is a proper contender for pole.

The Mercedes is at its best in cool conditions and on fast circuits. This track is not super-fast due to the many chicanes to slow the speeds but it is not slow. The car also likes smooth track surfaces and the tarmac here is smooth, but being a street track it will not be free from bumps.

Russell has been top three in qualifying four times in 2025 and he looks to have the conditions needed for the Mercedes to be at or near its best.

McLaren were testing new parts yesterday and looked a bit slower than usual. FP3 was a more accurate barometer of where they actually stand. That saw Norris marginally fastest. Piastri seems to be having a more difficult weekend.

Ferrari have not really been a factor in qualifying in 2025, Monaco excepted. Leclerc was very close in FP3 despite his lack of laps on Friday.

Verstappen can pop up at any time but the Red Bull might just not be good enough around this track this year.

2025 Canadian GP qualifying Selections

I have to admit to having backed Russell shortly before the start of FP3. He was 6.00 and with three places, made a good e/w bet. After FP3? He is 5.00 with the same e/w terms.

Norris is the 2.50 favourite, Russell the 5.00 second favourite, Piastri 5.40, Leclerc 7.00, Verstappen 8.00 and Hamilton 15.00.

I am sticking with Russell as a good value e/w bet. He has been top three four times already in 2025, and this is a good track for the car.

2025 Canadian GP qualifying Tip: 1 point e/w George Russell to be the fastest qualifier @ 5.00 with BET365, Betfair (e/w 1/5 the odds 1-3)

The fact that this is a short lap does mean that the margins between the drivers in qualifying tends to be low. In 2025, the average qualifying winning margin is 0.0845s. The last two have been over 0.10s but with so many contenders I think we could have another very close margin. It was 0.000s last year, so a repeat would be nice.

2025 Canadian GP qualifying Tip: 1 point qualifying winning margin under 0.10 seconds @ 1.75 with Ladbrokes

The last bet is a match bet on Bortoleto the out qualify Nico Hulkenberg. The Brazilian has out qualified The Hulk in three of their last four qualifying sessions and overall they are 4-5.

2025 Canadian GP qualifying Tip: 1 point Bortoleto to out qualify Hulkenberg @ 2.45 with Livescorebet

-JamesPunt