2025 Cheltenham Gold Cup Stats That Matter – DS

by Dave Stevos | Feb 11, 2025

2025 Cheltenham Gold Cup Stats That Matter

Let’s be honest, Galopin Des Champs is probably going to win this race no matter what the stats say. He was imperious at Leopardstown in February and surely, he can complete the Gold Cup hat-trick next month. Last year, the statistics managed to find three of the first four home in the week’s feature race, hopefully we can repeat the trick and maybe find an interesting e/w angle at a price. Check out Dave Stevos’ 2025 Cheltenham Gold Cup Stats That Matter preview below.

Age

You all know the drill by now. The first statistic we use to separate the wheat from the chaff in these previews is usually age and this race is no exception. Since the 10yo Cool Dawn galloped to victory in the 1998 renewal, no horse older than 9yo has won. The only horse younger than 7yo to win since then was Long Run in 2011. So, according to the stats, if you are going to win a Gold Cup you need to be aged between 7yo and 9yo.

There’s no horse younger than 8yo left in the race but there’s quite a few old boys that are going to be early casualties, including the Betfair Chase winner Royal Pagaille. Jungle Boogie, Conflated, Ahoy Senor and Hewick are also discounted and the highest profile horse to be counted out at this early stage is last year’s fourth, L’Homme Presse.

Cut: Royal Pagaille; Jungle Boogie; Conflated; Ahoy Senor; Hewick; L’Homme Presse

Winning Form

The statistics in recent years suggest that it is very difficult to gain your first win of the season in the Cheltenham Gold Cup. Since 2010, thirteen of the fourteen winners of this race had notched up at least one win during the current season before landing the biggest prize of all.

No worries for Galopin Des Champs here, but we do lose Corbetts Cross who is 0-2 this campaign. Monty’s Star has form figures of 225, so he gets the chop, as does Grangeclare West who chased home Galopin Des Champs at Leopardstown last time.

Last year’s Turners Novice Chase winner Grey Dawning is another high profile horse that has yet to win this season, and the final victim of this stat is Mouse Morris’ Gentlemansgame.

Cut: Corbetts Cross; Monty’s Star; Grangeclare West; Grey Dawning; Gentlemansgame

The Final Four

And then there were four. It’s no surprise that Galopin Des Champs has made it this far. He ticks every single box and as his odds suggest, it would be a big shock if he didn’t match Cottage Rake, Arkle and Best Mate by completing a hat-trick of Gold Cup wins.

Fact To File has proved no match for Galopin the last twice at Leopardstown but he did manage to beat him when he won the John Durkan at Punchestown in November. He finished 7.5l behind him in December and closed that gap to 4.75l at the Dublin Racing Festival but he is surely likely to play a supporting role here again (and he might even switch to the Ryanair).

Good Ground Key For Banbridge

Banbridge also makes the final cut and he is a fascinating runner. This season’s King George hero finished well beaten in the Ryanair Chase last year but the soft ground was to blame for that effort. He is a horse that needs a sound surface to show his best and if it comes up good on Gold Cup Day, he could give Galopin Des Champs something to think about. However, if the ground is soft he probably has no chance and might not even run. A bet on him is totally weather reliant.

The only other survivor is The Real Whacker. Like Galopin Des Champs, he would probably prefer a sound surface but he did manage to win the 2023 Brown Advisory on soft ground. He beat Gerri Colombe that day and that horse would probably be second or third favourite for this if he didn’t pick up an injury.

Charlie Hall Win

Patrick Neville’s horse looked better than ever when winning the Charlie Hall at Wetherby back in November and he ran a fine race to finish fourth in the King George at Kempton, a track he probably doesn’t like.

His form figures in chases at Cheltenham read 111P2P and it was soft ground both times he pulled up. With the race likely to cut up, the stats say The Real Whacker might be worth chancing e/w at huge odds for three places. If the ground comes up good, hopefully he can sneak into the first three.

2025 Cheltenham Gold Cup Stats That Matter – DS