2025 Chinese GP Betting Preview

It was a tricky start to the season for James in Melbourne but he’s hoping for better this weekend. Check out his 2025 Chinese GP betting preview below.

2025 Chinese GP Raceday

Last weekend’s Australian GP was entertaining, but a bloodbath punting wise. It was a -5.80 point loss and if it could go wrong, it did. That is the problem with ante-post bets combined with wet weather races. They are extremely high risk and especially as it was the first race of the season.

The good news is that we have another twenty three races in which to recoup the losses, starting with the 2025 Chinese GP this weekend. The second of five races in a six week period. There is no rest for the wicked.

Sprint Race Weekend

As was the case last year, China is a Sprint Race weekend. That means just one free practice session on Friday before we get into the timed sessions. Sprint qualifying is on Friday afternoon local time, the Sprit Race is on Saturday morning local time. Qualifying proper is on Saturday afternoon and the race is the stand alone event on Sunday.

Like last weekend, the sessions are early in the morning here in the UK. Sprint qualifying starts at 7.30am on Friday morning. The Sprint Race is at 3am on Saturday. GP Qualifying starts at 7am, as does the race on Sunday.

I will be providing an update on Friday ahead of the Sprint race. There will be no specific qualifying update, but there will be a race preview posted on Saturday.

First Race Form

The first thing to look at was last weekend’s action, and its use as a form guide for this weekend.

A wet, dry, wet race with five DNFs and a DNS in not typical of what we will get for the bulk of the season, but at least we banked some wet weather form. The weekend confirmed McLaren as the leading team. A front row lock out in qualifying, by a good margin, was the big tell.

The race itself was not such a good guide. This was a race full of jeopardy for McLaren and twelve months ago, I suspect they would have dropped the ball at some stage. It was a well-executed race by the team and that was as big a plus as the cars pace.

The McLaren has one characteristic which is very unusual, and one that will worry its competitors. It is very quick to warm the tyres up, but also low in terms of degradation. Usually, if you have a car that can fire up the tyres quickly, it means that degradation is high. A bit like the 2023 Ferrari and Haas cars for example.

Well Balanced

This McLaren seems to be a very well balanced car and that will serve them well just about everywhere, and in all conditions. Norris remains pessimistic about the car’s performance on tracks like Las Vegas where the low grip surface is still expected to trip them up, but he says that this car is better than last year’s, as expected, and that should be enough to give him a great chance of winning the title.

The winning margin was under 1 second which makes it sound like Red Bull and Verstappen are going to be close to McLaren, but we have to take into account that the race had three safety cars. The effectively meant we had a four mini-races strung together. Norris won the lot.

In the mid part of the race, when he got a lot of uninterrupted laps in, the two McLarens dropped Verstappen with ease. The Red Bull was sixteen seconds down and in a ‘normal’ race that gap was just going to grow. However, every time we got a safety car, the field was allowed to bunch up, letting Verstappen get back on the tails of the McLaren’s.

Red Bull Struggles

Make no mistake, the McLaren had a big one lap pace advantage and a bigger race pace advantage. Verstappen was best of the rest all weekend, but the Red Bull is not in the same league. Even with his favoured conditions, Verstappen needed the help of multiple safety cars to help him get close to the McLarens. Norris was running with a damaged floor towards the end of the race, which further helped Verstappen close the gap.

The Red Bull is said to be much harder on the tyres than McLaren. Helmut Marko says that the car is two or three tenths off the McLaren, but after eight laps or so, their tyre degradation is much worse. It will take them three to six races to have updates to address this issue.

Of course, their updates will have to work, and McLaren may well have their own improvements to come. Red Bull are chasing, and they do not have Adrian Newey on board any longer.

Top Four For Mercedes

Mercedes are tied with McLaren on twenty seven points, but that was down to Piastri having an off-day and struggling to get back onto the track. He got bogged down on the wet grass and went from second to twelfth before recovering to finish ninth. Mercedes got both drivers home in the top four.

Russell was anonymous in the race and benefited from Piastri’s woes. Antonelli had a good debut, but he got a big slice of luck when he spun off the rack at one of the very few places which had the room for him not to hit a barrier.

I read that Russell never actually deployed his DRS in the entire race. It was deactivated by race control at the start and restarts, and by the time it was activated, the two McLarens and Verstappen were out of range for his DRS to be activated. That tells you a lot about their relative form.

Mercedes struggled with the soft tyres last weekend. Those were Pirelli’s softest tyres and this weekend will see a harder range, by one step, so this weekend’s version of soft will be a bit more durable.

Overheating Ferrari

Ferrari had looked pretty good on Friday, Leclerc was fastest in FP2, but they struggled with overheating rear tyres in qualifying, only making seventh and eighth. In the race, they had no great pace and were just holding their places.

The team tried to take a gamble with the late rain shower, keeping the drivers out on slicks while the rest dived in for inters. Hamilton led for half a lap but the rain was far too heavy for slicks and they had to pit and fell back to finish eighth and tenth.

I can see why they tried the gamble, but it was very optimistic. It did cost them a lot of points and flattered everyone else from fourth place downwards.

Qualifying Problems

I would say their problems in qualifying is their biggest worry. Ferrari go well at Albert Park and they really struggled this time. They have work to do. Hamilton had a torrid time trying to cope with a new car and in very testing conditions. His communication with his new engineer was clearly strained at times.

The Shanghai Circuit may hide that rear tyre overheating issue. It is a very front limited circuit so the rears won’t be getting as much abuse. However, the forecast high temperatures are a negative.

Pirelli are bringing a range of tyres that are one step harder than they had last weekend. That should help Ferrari somewhat in qualifying. Ferrari seem to have had a problem with plank wear on Friday. They had to raise the height of the car for Saturday and Sunday which is not a good thing with these ground effect cars.

The Midfielders

Williams look to have the fifth best car, or maybe even better. Albon outqualified and finished ahead of the two Ferraris. We backed Sainz and he had a poor weekend. He only managed tenth in qualifying after a scrappy lap, and he crashed out under the first safety car. It looked like a rookie error, but he is still new to the car, so I will cut him some slack.

The team are now saying that there was a bit of a power spike as he changed gear. The power unit was in safety car mode, which works differently to the normal settings. A combination of the conditions, the power unit setting and the driver being new to the car added up to his off.

If Ferrari continue to struggle, Williams can pick up some nice points in this opening block of races. Alex Albon is concerned that the Shanghai track, with its many slow corners, will not suit them as well as Melbourne did. He did finish twelfth in China last year, so I would think they should be looking for more points come Sunday.

Racing Bulls’ Promise

Racing Bulls had a poor result, but a good weekend. Nobody was expecting much after testing had them nearer the back than the midfield, but Tsunoda qualified fifth and Hadjar nearly made it two Racing Bulls into Q3.

It all went tits up in the race. Hadjar spun out on the formation lap and that was his weekend over. He was devastated and his already fragile confidence will have taken a big knock. Tsunoda held sixth place for much of the race but he lost out when the rain fell and he was on slicks, going off track and dropping down the order to finish twelfth. It was a great opportunity to score big points missed.

Alpine Pointless

Alpine came away from Melbourne pointless. Yes, we had money on Gasly to finish in the points and he had been sitting in eighth for most of the race, right up until about three laps from the end, when he made an error in turn one, lost traction and was swallowed up by both Ferraris, and finally by the recovering Piastri, knocking down to eleventh place. That was another kick in the nuts.

The car has the pace to compete for points, at least in the hands of Gasly. Doohan binned it on lap 1 and he had only managed fourteenth in qualifying. He is under pressure to keep his drive, and that was a poor opening gambit.

Aston Martin came away with eight points thanks to Lance Stroll finishing sixth. He does go well in Melbourne, and in the wet, but he was flattered by the struggles for Ferrari, Piastri’s late off and even Alonso crashing out. They had qualified twelfth and thirteenth and that looks more representative of where they stand.

Sauber Off The Mark

Sauber scored more points in Melbourne than they managed in the whole of 2024. They will be very happy to have done so but it was not quite as good as it seemed. Hulkenberg was never really in the hunt for points until Piastri had his off, Alonso crashed out and Ferrari gambled with their slick tyre strategy.

It could be a while before they get such a huge slice of luck again. The team had brought new sidepods and a new front wing for the Melbourne race, and it did make a positive difference to the car. Clearly now well ahead of Haas.

Haas were never at the races and they messed up with tyre selection when the late shower hit. Having hung on with inters when it was drying, they switched to slicks, just before the rain hit. They were the slowest team all weekend. The car just looks to be a bit of a dog.

They have said that the car was so bad that they thought something had broken. The team say it will take weeks to rectify. The car was disappointing in testing, but much worse in Melbourne. It was the slowest car on the straights and in the slow corners, which is exactly what you do not want in Shanghai.

2025 Chinese GP: Driver and Team Track Records

The track was first used for F1 in 2004 and we had different winners for the first seven years. In 2012 the race was won by Nico Rosberg in a Mercedes. That was their first win in the modern era and their first for 55 years.

We have had just seven races here in the turbo hybrid era as it was off the calendar for three years between 2020 and 2023 during the Covid pandemic.

There are only two drivers that have raced in every year of the turbo hybrid era in Shanghai, Lewis Hamilton and Nico Hulkenberg.

Lewis Hamilton has won four since 2014. Max Verstappen won here last year but has just the one other podium finish from his six races at this venue. Norris has raced here only twice, with a best finish of second last year. Leclerc has three races here but his best finish was fourth last year. Carlos Sainz has four points finishes, Hulkenberg three.

Mercedes Go Well Here

In terms of constructors’ form in Shanghai since 2014, Mercedes have won five and Red Bull two. It was a Mercedes fortress between 2014 and 2019 with just Daniel Riccardo getting a win in 2018. That result revolved around a safety car deployment, at which the two Red Bulls pitted immediately for new tyres, while Mercedes kept Hamilton out.

Verstappen made a mistake and it was Ricciardo only was in the right place at the right time, and on fresher tyres. Verstappen collided with Vettel, taking both out of the equation. Riccardo was left to take the win having started back in sixth.

Mercedes were good on front limited tracks, but we have only had the one race here under the ground effect regulations, and Verstappen won that, ahead of Norris and Alonso in third. The two Mercedes finished sixth and ninth. They had gone better in the Sprint race on Saturday with Hamilton finishing second.

Last Year

Last year saw a wet Sprint qualifying with Norris on pole. The Sprint race was won by Verstappen with Norris dropping back to finish sixth. The weekend was dominated by the Red Bull of Verstappen and even Perez had a good weekend, qualifying in second place and finishing third.

Last year’s race was held before McLaren got their big upgrade and Norris was in inferior equipment at the time. That will not be case this weekend.

The 2025 Chinese GP Track

This is not a track which I am particularly fond of. It is all a bit forced in terms of its layout. The track was designed to look like the Chinese symbol for ‘shang’ from above. It features two very long straights and a lot of slow, long duration corners.

The first four corners are effectively one big never ending spiral before a short blast into the second sector which features a hairpin, opening up two long, fast, sweeping curves before another short blast into a slow series of long duration corners that lead on the long straight that leads into a very tight hairpin, then a quick left hander back onto the start-finish straight.

Versatile Car Needed

You need a car that can look after the front tyres, be quick in a straight line, but also be good in slow corners. It is a track that required a medium downforce set up. Enough downforce for grip in the many corners, but not too much drag for the long straights. As usual, the car with the most efficient aerodynamics will be able to run a little bit less drag but still get enough grip. That would be McLaren in 2025.

The track has been resurfaced since last year, and that can have an effect. It is the same for everyone of course, but the teams will be very keen to get out early in FP1 and gather as much data as possible to help their strategists plan for what is a busy weekend.

New tarmac can also be very slippery when wet.

Of the seven races here in the Turbo Hybrid era five have been won from pole position, one from second and the other from seventh. The average attrition rate in that period is 2.14, but two races saw all twenty cars finishing the race.

The Weather Forecast

The forecasters did a good job last weekend and this weekend looks a lot more straightforward. Friday will be mostly sunny and warm with a high of 26 degrees. Saturday will be hot and sunny at 29 degrees. Race day will see more cloud, 28 degrees and the afternoon has a 25% chance of rain. Visibility will be poor and the air quality rancid.

Rear Wing Checks

The FIA have announced that they will be introducing a tougher new rear wing deflection test from the Chinese Grand Prix onwards. The teams had to fit cameras to their cars in practice in Melbourne so that the FIA could study the level of deflection. All cars were deemed legal, but there were sufficient grounds for a “tougher test” to be introduced on the upper rear wing.

The allowable amount of movement in the slot gap will be reduced from the current 2mm to just 0.75mm for this race, but 0.5mm from then on.

Who is this aimed at, and by whom? Red Bull are the likely accusers. They are behind the ‘flexi wars’ and are trying to limit the advantage gained by their rivals. Ferrari, McLaren and Mercedes are said to be ‘at it’.

Will this make any material difference? We shall wait and see, but I have my doubts. As does Mercedes George Russell who said that he doesn’t expect the new tests to affect anybody very much. He also said that the directive was not aimed at them, or Red Bull.

2025 Chinese GP Summary

Melbourne never gives you the full picture, and less so this year with the mad weather. However, there is no doubt that McLaren threw down a very large gauntlet. The race threw all sorts of jeopardy at them, and they passed all the tests.

Norris is surprisingly confident about the team’s prospects for this weekend. “I’m confident that when we go to China next weekend, we can be very strong, because we were strong there last year with not a very good car.” It is not like him to be so positive, which is interesting.

The new rear wing tests will have some effect, but how much, and for whom, is the question. The long straights here would reward a flexi rear wing, so we may learn on Day 1 if anyone in particular is losing out.

McClaren Confident

Everyone thinks (is hoping?) that it will put the brakes on McLaren, but the team are confident that it will not. They insist they are not the team at the centre of the FIA’s sudden additional clampdown on flexible rear wings and say they won’t need to make any changes to its car. They will not be changing their wing, but Ferrari have brought a less loaded wing than they had in in Australia. Make of that what you will.

The McLaren was tested four times in Melbourne and the rear wing was passed every time. Norris said that perhaps they were not exploiting that area enough, and not by too much. Other cars tested were Verstappen’s Red Bull, Russell’s Mercedes and Sainz’s Williams. All were complying with the regulations.

The Sprint race format has never started so soon in the season before. We are just one week into it, with back to back fly away races. Teams that had problems in Melbourne would have liked a ‘normal race weekend’ that gave them three hours of free practice to address their issues. This weekend they only have one. That is not good for the likes of Ferrari and Haas who both struggled and disappointed.

2025 Chinese GP Ante Post Bets

We rolled the dice with the ante-post bets last weekend and got burned. I will be more circumspect this weekend and try and get some profit on the books.

I am happy to back Lando Norris at this stage. He is still available to back at odds against in a place. I expected him to be shorter than that. I wouldn’t be happy laying him at those odds. It is easy to go overboard on the back of one race, but their car was the best in 2024, after a slow start.

It was the best in testing and it was very clearly the best in Melbourne, despite the winning margin being under one second. As Norris said, they were competitive here last year in a much less competitive car.

The new, improved McLaren is now the car to beat. If it had been Verstappen winning in Melbourne, would he be odds on this weekend? Not a chance. Be careful to make sure you place your bets on the right market this weekend. It is easy to rush in and back your fancy, only to find you have backed him in the Sprint race and not the GP proper. The same for any market.

2025 Chinese GP Tip: 2 points Lando Norris to win the Chinese GP @ 2.20 with Skybet (Norris is 2.10 with Betfair, Pokerstars)

Before I look at any match bets, it is worth pointing out that in last week’s race, and qualifying, the incumbent driver in those teams that featured a new driver, all outqualified and finished ahead of the ‘newbie’ in the team. A coincidence? I think not.

It was especially difficult for the rookie drivers, and those sitting in a new office, to get on top of everything, in a wet-dry-wet race. That they were all out qualified in the dry tells us that it does take time to get used to a new car, or a new power unit, a new race engineer and so on.

I did have a look at the match bets and found nothing worth risking. It may be worth considering the likes of Antonelli to beat Russell at around 4.00, or Hadjar to beat Tsunoda at 3.00, but the rookies are new to this track, and incumbency proved to be key last weekend.

Alpine Tempting

I was tempted by Alpine to have a double points finish at 10.00, but again, Doohan is new to the track and may not be feeling confident after his first lap crash last weekend. Williams can be backed at 1.80 for a double points finish, but the value is marginal.

There is one last bet I will make now. The McLaren’s would have had a 1-2 finish last weekend but for Piastri getting stranded on the grass for so long. In a dry race? Easy 1-2. Who would have been third, wet or dry? Verstappen.

2025 Chinese GP Tip: 1 point Tricast Norris 1st, Piastri 2nd and Verstappen 3rd @ 6.50 with Ladbrokes (price boost)

Hopefully we get a straightforward race weather wise. These three are the fastest combined driver/car pairings and if it goes to the script, this is the logical outcome. It is a ‘price boost’ so stakes may get limited and the odds cut, but the price is correct as of 14.00 today.

The next update will be on Friday afternoon UK time.

RIP Eddie Jordan

There was much sadness at Punt Towers this morning, with the sad news of the passing of Eddie Jordan.

Jordan was boss of the eponymous F1 team that competed between 1991 and 2005. It was in that period that we had the golden age of Formula 1 punting, with the birth of internet betting and clueless bookies who would take a bet.

The Jordan team was very good for James Punt. The two highlights were with Damon Hill winning the Belgian GP in 1998. It was the team’s first ever win. It was a wet race, only six cars finished, but it was a 1-2 for Jordan, who built cars that tended to go well in the wet, giving them the chance to strike in those kind of races.

Hill went off as a 67.00 chance and delivered the goods. Punt Towers was forever a warmer place, as the winnings paid for a new central heating system.

2005 Touch

Things were even better at the 2005 US Grand Prix, which is officially the BEST Grand Prix ever. I am sure long time followers would agree.

It was the famous race where the fourteen drivers who were using Michelin tyres did the formation lap, and they pulled into the pits and retired. That left just the six cars who were running Bridgestone tyres. All they had to do was finish the race to score points. The three teams were Ferrari, nailed on for a 1-2 finish, perennial backmarkers Minardi, and Jordan, a team in steep decline.

Jordan were going down the pan at the time and ceased to exist at the end of the season. They and Minardi were just making up the numbers and not expected to be anywhere near the top 10, never mind the top 6, or god forbid a podium. They had qualified 17th and 19th.

Due to the fears that the Michelin tyres would fail on the famous banked curve, every team bar Ferrari agreed to cancel the race. This was for fear of being sued for damages by any injured drivers. At the last minute, Eddie Jordan changed his mind, no doubt incentivised by Bernie Ecclestone, and that forced the hand of Minardi to also race, as they were locked in a battle for ninth place with Jordan.

The six cars ‘raced’ and the Jordans of Tiago Monteiro and Narain Karthikeyan finished 3rd and 4th. Legends, both of them.

Pre-Social Media

It was before the days of social media and news didn’t travel that fast back then, but James Punt had his ear to the ground and learned that the Michelin drivers were going to withdraw after the formation lap. In those days, the bookies counted the formation lap as the first lap of the race, and that meant it was a valid race under their own rules.

With this priceless information we were able to back Monteiro at 1001.00 to get a podium, 751.00 Kartikeyan to finish in the top six, and 501.00 for the Minardi’s. As I say, the BEST Grand Prix ever. They all copped.

My other big win with Jordan was the 1999 French GP, which Jordan won with Heinz Harold Frentzen. He was only about 17.00 to win but I had a large one on him. Stupidly, I promised Mrs Punt a super doopper computerised sewing machine if he won. He did, she got the sewing machine and I was left with not a lot.

Without doubt, the Jordan F1 team was my most profitable team ever. Eddie Jordan was a bit of a rogue and a punter at heart. His whole life was about beating the odds and is what he helped me do. I shall raise a glass or two for him tonight. Cheers Eddie.

-JamesPunt