2025 Chinese GP Raceday Preview

Now, it is time for James Punt’s 2025 Chinese GP Raceday preview.  

2025 Chinese GP Raceday

We have backed the right team this weekend, but the wrong driver. Lando Norris has been poor so far and he is playing second fiddle to his teammate.

The story of the weekend so far is the tyres and how delicate they are. Pirelli have had to tell the teams to increase the pressure of the tyres to keep them safe, but that reduces the grip and is causing graining. The front left tyres are suffering badly and the race will be as much about tyre management as about who is fastest.

A quick car that is hard on the tyres will not do. McLaren should hold the advantage in that respect and a 1-2 is still on the cards, despite George Russell getting between the two in GP qualifying.

The pole position driver has won five of the last seven races here, so it looks good for Piastri to pick up the win this weekend.

Team-by-Team Guide

McLaren

Still the fastest car but Russell was just 0.082 off Piastri’s time. The McLaren was the kindest on the tyres in Australia and if that carries through to this race, they are in a good place. Being in the clean air at the front of the pack is a huge advantage which further plays into Piastri’s hands.

If Norris is to win, he needs to make a great start, and that is not his greatest strength, as we saw here last year and in the sprint race earlier. The McLarens’ long run pace puts them ahead of the opposition. Norris is happier in the car after they made some changes after the Sprint race, but he needs to stop making mistakes.

Piastri has found the first corner to be tricky and he could be vulnerable at the start, but if he leads after that, it is his to lose. The McLarens finished the sprint race strongly, which suggests that they do have a tyre wear advantage.

Mercedes

It was a bit of a surprise to see Russell get second place in qualifying. Ferrari had looked to be second best on Friday, and Hamilton won the sprint race, but they dropped back in qualifying and Mr. Saturday split the McLarens.

Their long run pace is a couple of tenths off McLaren and I feel that Russell’s real job is to beat Verstappen. Russell said that his qualifying lap in Q3 was one of the best in his career, which suggests that he may find it hard to hold that place.

Antonelli ended up in eighth place, just about where he has been all weekend. Russell jumped Leclerc at the start of the sprint race and then was detached from the top three but comfortably ahead of Leclerc.

Red Bull

Verstappen said he would need the cars in front to all breakdown if he is to win the race. He is probably right, but he might be able to beat Russell. The Red Bull was a lot faster than the Mercedes in Melbourne and Russell probably over delivered in qualifying.

Verstappen did struggle with tyre wear in the sprint race. He was pushing hard to race Hamilton and cooked the tyres trying, eventually losing second place to Piastri. This is the problem with the tyres here, push them and they go off. That doesn’t make for great racing.

Maybe the hard tyre will be better, but we don’t know because nobody has used them. Liam Lawson will start from last place as his woes continue. The Red Bulls are not easy on their tyres and Verstappen was struggling at the end of the 19 lap sprint race.

Ferrari

Hamilton won the sprint race from pole position. That shows the benefit of being at the front. Their car was not so good in qualifying and they will start from the third row, fifth and sixth. It is a different job racing at the front compared to starting with four or five cars ahead of you.

Hamilton was comfortable at the head of the field in the sprint, Leclerc got stuck in fifth after losing a place at the start, but he was closing down Russell at the end of the sprint. If they can manage their tyres better than the Red Bull and Mercedes, a podium is not impossible.

Racing Bulls

Best of the rest this weekend. Tsunoda was sixth in the sprint and Hadjar was seventh in qualifying, Tsunoda ninth. They failed to convert good grid positions in Australia, but this should be a more straightforward race.

Hadjar was pleased with the pace of the car at the end of the sprint race, suggesting that they were on top of the tyre wear issue. Hadjar thought he should have qualified higher as his Q3 laps were not his best. It all sounds rather positive for the two Racing Bulls.

Williams

It is a bit of a struggle for Williams this weekend. Sainz in particular is nowhere. Albon dropped a couple of places in the Sprint race, finishing eleventh. Sainz’ tyre wear was so bad, he was forced to pit for new tyres. The team made setup changes after the sprint to better manage the tyres for the race.

Aston Martin

They have been around the top 10 mark for most of the weekend but struggled to match that in qualifying. It is very close in the top ten and a small mistake will cost a lot of places. Changes to the car after the sprint may have cost some one lap pace but the team hope to have more control over the tyres for the race.

Sauber

It was a good qualifying session from Hulkenberg who starts from twelfth place. He had changed is suspension settings before the sprint race meaning he started from the pit lane. Bortoleto suffered badly with tyre wear in the sprint and did not have a good qualifying, ending up nineteenth. Hulkenberg is in with a sniff of making it back to back points finishes.

Haas

Ocon qualified eleventh which was a surprise. The team made a lot of changes to the car after the sprint race. They have made good progress after a disastrous Australian GP weekend. Ocon is within reach of a points finish, but Bearman had a bad qualifying running out of time to do a final flying lap.

The changes to the car are aimed at improving race pace, and if they work, Ocon might get a point, but it is a very competitive midfield.

Alpine

Really struggling following having to change their rear wing to comply with the new directive. However, Gasly had a decent sprint race, making up five places, only Liam Lawson made up more. Unfortunately he is again starting from way down the grid in sixteenth place, with Doohan eighteenth. The Aussie picked up two penalty points for crashing into Bortoleto in the sprint. The car has better race pace, but they do look too far back to be in the hunt for points.

2025 Chinese GP Raceday Summary

I am not expecting a great race tomorrow. The sprint race was dull on the whole and the track does tend to produce a lot of DRS trains and not too much racing. Especially as the drivers will be managing their tyres. Make a clean start and hold position will be the order of the day. Cars with better tyre degradation qualities can make up some places at the end of stints as the opposition drops off.

Piastri is the 1.91 favourite to win the race. We hitched our wagon to Norris ante post and while it is not dead and buried, he is now out to 3.40. Our tricast also neds the McLarens to swap position. Piastri has been the better driver this weekend, he may struggle more with tyre management, but he does have the big advantage of having the clean air.

Race Day Bets

It is difficult to make up a lot of places on this track, unless you have a clearly faster car that is out of position. The only car that applies to is the Red Bull of Liam Lawson. He made up six places in the sprint race but that was only enough to finish fourteenth as he started from the back, as he does again today.

It will be hard for the drivers outside the top ten to break into the points. Last year only one car managed to do it and that was Hamilton in a Mercedes. He started 18th and finished 9th.

In 2019 three cars moved into the points. Albon from a pit lane start for Toro Rosso, Kimi Raikkonen from 13th and Perez from 12th. They were helped by Hulkenberg retiring and the two Haas dropping out of the top ten. In 2018 Alonso and Magnussen made up places to get points, six for Alonso starting 13th and one for Magnussen starting eleventh.

Last Four

In the last four races here the drivers starting 11th, 12th and 13th have made the top 10 twice. For this race, the drivers filling those positions are Ocon, Hulkenberg and Alonso. Ocon is 2.50 to finish in the points. Alonso 1.80, but Hulkenberg is 7.00 starting from 12th.

The Aston Martin has been around top ten pace all weekend and both cars made up one place in the sprint. Ocon made up two places, and Hulkenberg one, but he did start from the pitlane. All three of those drivers have had point scoring finishes here in the past. Hulkenberg and Ocon are now in different, and slower cars this year. Alonso was 7th for Aston Martin last year, but he started from 3rd.

It will probably go down as a good value loser but I will roll the dice on Hulkenberg to do what he did for Haas last year and finish tenth. The odds are just a bit too silly to pass up on.

2025 Chinese GP Raceday Tip: 1 point Nico Hulkenberg to finish in the points @ 7.00 with Ladbrokes

There are two match bets of interest. I am impressed by the Racing Bulls. They were good in the dry in Australia and have been best of the rest this weekend. Both cars made up places in the sprint which is a positive sign.

It is a well-balanced car and should be a little better on their tyres than others. Tsunoda has been top ten in every session and Hadjar hit the sweet spot in qualifying. He has improved with every session which is another positive. He is still very inexperienced and we can’t go mad on him, but I will back him to beat Alex Albon.

The Williams has not been as quick as the Racing Bulls this weekend and while Albon is a good defensive driver, I feel that is exactly what he will be doing in the race. Hanging on to tenth place. Hadjar stars three places ahead in what is a faster car. If inexperience doesn’t get him, he has a very good chance to beat the Williams.

2025 Chinese GP Raceday Tip: 1 point Hadjar to beat Albon @ 1.73 with SpreadEx

The other match bet is on Gasly to beat Lawson. The Red Bull is the faster car, but Lawson can’t drive it. He did make up six places in the sprint race but Gasly made up five and he starts four places ahead of Lawson. Gasly is a much more experienced driver than Lawson and on a day where tyre management is going to be so important, that might be the difference between the two.

2025 Chinese GP Raceday Tip: 1 point Gasly to beat Lawson @ 2.05 with Ladbrokes

-JamesPunt