2025 Chinese GP Sprint Race Preview

Lewis Hamilton pulled off a surprise in qualifying for the sprint race, does James Punt think he’ll complete the job? Check out his 2025 Chinese GP Sprint Race preview below. His outright preview can be viewed here.

2025 Chinese GP Sprint Race

This morning’s Sprint qualifying threw up a few surprises and confirms that the pecking order is not yet established.

McLaren were fastest in FP1 with Norris 0.454 ahead of Charles Leclerc in the Ferrari and Oscar Piastri in the other McLaren. How much we can read into FP1 is debateable. The resurfaced track was evolving and some drivers didn’t do any soft tyre runs, such as Verstappen who ended up back in sixteenth.

The new tarmac is very smooth and hot, leading to some teams suffering with bad tyre wear, Mercedes included. The track is also faster than it was and Hamilton set a new lap record in Sprint qualifying (SQ).

Team By Team

McLaren

Very fast in FP1, but hard to drive in sprint qualifying. Norris didn’t even complete his second flying lap in sprint qualifying as he had overshot the hairpin. Piastri looked to have more control of his car and was third in both sessions and less than a tenth off Hamilton’s time in SQ.

Norris was back to being a bit negative afterwards and criticising his own driving. I was pushing too hard and so on. If they can string a clean lap together, they are going to be hard to beat in GP qualifying after the end of the sprint race.

McLaren have time to go away, look at the data and make some setup adjustments to make the car more driveable. It is a test of the team organisationally. We have seen Red Bull be off the pace on Friday, only to bounce back the next day. If you understand the car, it can be turned around and it is not like the McLaren is slow, just ill handling and a little slow on the straights. Their race pace was said to be very strong.

Piastri said that the team’s decision to do two qualifying runs in SQ3 was the wrong one. Everyone else just did the one. The McLaren does look after its tyres well, but they will have lost some performance on their second run.

Ferrari

Very good on the straights and there is a lot of lap time spent going straight here. Obviously, the flexi-wing? They had the best one lap pace today but only fourth in terms of race pace.

The cars can be changed as soon as the sprint race is finished, so no doubt Ferrari will be looking to solve the long run pace for Sunday. That may have a knock on effect on their qualifying pace, but right now, the battle for the ‘real’ pole position is between Ferrari and McLaren.

Red Bull 

A tale of two drivers, again. Verstappen didn’t do a performance run in FP1 but put in a strong lap to be second in the sprint qualifying. Liam Lawson is on suicide watch at only his second race weekend at Red Bull. He is making Sergio Perez look good. Eighteenth in FP1 and last in SQ. He just can’t drive the car.

It seems like Red Bull have been building cars that only one man can drive. I suspect Verstappen will find one or two cars faster than him come qualifying proper, and I doubt he will beat both McLarens in the sprint race.

Merecedes 

Struggling with overheating the tyres in SQ, which doesn’t bode well for long runs. Once again, the softer the tyre, the bigger the problem. Their race pace will be helped by not having to use the soft tyres, but it does mean they are going to struggle for the GP qualifying session.

Williams 

Albon is going well again, top ten in both sessions, while Sainz was struggling, ending up fifteenth and thirteenth. Sainz said that he was having a problem with his seat and he wasn’t at all comfortable in the car.

He also acknowledged that he is not yet at home in the car and he just needs more time to get used to it. It is a bit strange that he was very quick in testing but has struggled since then. It seems the incumbent driver advantage is strong at Williams.

Racing Bulls 

Tsunoda was, once again, King of the Tow. Last week he got tow from Norris to qualify fifth, today it was his teammate who helped him to reach eighth place. Hadjar struggled with overheating tyres and he ended up fifteenth. The car is around the cut off point for Q3, if Tsunoda can get a tow, he is in, if not he may just lose out.

Aston Martin 

One car in the top ten in each session. Alonso in FP1 but it will be Stroll starting tenth in the sprint race. The Canadian seems to be a lot closer to Alonso’s performances so far in 2025.

Alpine 

Disappointing. They had some traffic problems but the car was just slow. Doohan had a mechanical failure in FP1 and they are struggling this weekend. Alpine have admitted that they have had to put a new rear wing into play this weekend in order to comply with the new directive over flexing.

Haas 

Looking a bit better this weekend. Much closer to Q3 level but it is very close and there is no room for error. Bearman says there is more pace to come and they are a much happier camp than when in Melbourne. Haas have also had to change their rear wing to make sure they pass the new tests.

Sauber 

Hulkenberg was sixth in FP1 but in SQ they struggled, Hulkenberg could only manage nineteenth place, Bortoleto fourteenth. Sauber did go well here last year, so they know how to set the car up, but Hulkenberg was another to suffer with overheating tyres.

The Sprint Race

Last year it was Norris who started from pole but he dropped back to sixth at the end of the race. Verstappen won it from fourth on the grid. Sergio Perez finished third having started from sixth. That must give McLaren some real hope that, as they have the fastest car, they can improve on their disappointing SQ.

There are over taking opportunities and the quickest car should be able to make progress. Norris may be too far back in sixth place, but Piastri can get the job done. He is the 3.00 favourite, with Hamilton 3.50 and Verstappen 5.50

2025 Chinese GP Sprint Race Tip: 1 point Oscar Piastri to win the Sprint Race @ 3.00 with Betfred

Once the Sprint race is finished, the car comes out of parc ferme and the teams can change setups. As such, the relative form can change. I still expect McLaren to be the team to beat, but I am happy to skip qualifying and concentrate on the actual race.

Race Day Update preview will be posted on Saturday afternoon.

-JamesPunt