2025 Dutch GP Betting Preview

Now, it is time for James Punt’s 2025 Dutch GP outright betting preview. James is hoping to return with a bang, fingers crossed for lots of F1 winners this weekend.

2025 Dutch GP

The summer holidays are over, and we now have ten more races to decide who will be the 2025 World Drivers Champion. Piastri holds a nine-point lead over Lando Norris, and it is safe to say it is a two horse race.

McLaren have won eleven of the fourteen races so far in 2025. Six of them were won by Piastri and five by Norris. Their qualifying H2H record is 7-7 and all in all, it is very hard to split the two. Norris has won three of the last four races, all 1-2 finishes for the McLaren pair.

Others who went into the summer break in good form were the Sauber pairing of Hulkenberg and Bortoleto. The team had had one (fortuitous) points finish in the first eight races. A significant upgrade introduced in Spain saw their car transformed into a points scoring machine.

They have now enjoyed six consecutive point scoring races, including a podium finish and two other top six finishes. They have scored 45 points from those last six races. That is the same as Red Bull have managed in the last six GPs. Only McLaren, Ferrari and Mercedes have scored more points than Sauber in the same period.

This weekend’s race is the Dutch GP from Zandvoort, and if you are a fan of the track, make the most of this race as it will be the penultimate race held here for the foreseeable future. Its contract runs out in 2026. I can’t say I will miss it.

The 2025 Dutch GP Track

This revamped circuit returned to the calendar in 2021, cashing in on the ‘Max Factor’. Despite the popularity of Verstappen, the event has struggled to balance the books. Unlike many venues, it receives no state subsidies and the promoter has decided that it is financially unviable.

It is a short lap, crammed into a small parcel of land next to the coast. It’s unlike any other track, which makes guessing the likely form harder than many tracks.

It features one long straight and the rest of the lap is sinuous, twisty, with fourteen corners, two DRS zones and famously it features some banked corners, most notably the final long sweeper onto the long start-finish straight.

There are undulations across the lap and it has a bit of a roller coaster feel to it. It terms of demands on the car, it is not dissimilar to the Hungaroring, in that overtaking is difficult and it is a very busy lap. The drivers like it and it is considered to be a driver’s circuit, but I wouldn’t call it a great race track.

Three of the four races here were won by Max Verstappen, but that run was ended by Lando Norris last year. We have seen rain here before which can make things more interesting. Crashes have mixed things up as well, at times, but it can also be a processional race. In the 2021 race, the first five on the grid finished in the same order as they started. The pole sitter has won all four races here.

The Weather Forecast

Being on the coast means it tends to be breezy and this weekend will be no exception. Indeed, it is forecast to be very windy. The forecast is for sunshine and showers for all three days. Sunday’s race is expected to see a few light showers and winds of 44 km/h, gusting to 72 km/h. Temperatures will be around 20 degrees for all three days. The latest forecasts are tending towards both Saturday and Sunday afternoons being dry, with the bulk of any showers coming in the mornings.

The 2025 Dutch GP Teams

McLaren 

Aiming for a record equalling fifth 1-2 finish in a row. The car goes well pretty much everywhere and this track should be no exception. Norris won the race from pole position last year with Piastri back in fourth. It is hard to see anything other than another win and, in all likelihood, another 1-2 finish.

Ferrari 

Five podium finishes for Leclerc so far, while Hamilton is closing in on an unwelcome record. It took Didier Peroni 19 races before he got his first podium for Ferrari. Hamilton has now had 14 races without a podium and his record here isn’t great.

He was second in 2021 but lost out to Russell in two of the last three races here, and that 2nd place in 2021 was his only podium. Leclerc has scored two third places in the four previous Dutch GPs. His recent form sees three third places from his last six GPs.

His demise from leading the race in Hungary, and doing so comfortably, was strange. The car lost performance after his second pitstop and he was not even able to hold on to third place. Leclerc was rather reluctant to say what the problem had been. He had been complaining on the team radio that what they had talked about before the race was happening. The car has had a season long problem with plank wear. That required them to run the car higher than was ideal for generating downforce.

Plank Wear Problems

Their upgrades have been designed to address the problem. However, it seems that while the car is now much improved in terms of pace, it stills risks being disqualified for excess wear. The fact that Leclerc had to change his power unit mode, causing him to be slower down the straight and thus not bottoming out at the end of it, does suggest that the old problem is still there.

The team called it a ‘strange chassis issue’. That sounds a bit like bollocks to me. A chassis doesn’t suddenly make the car difficult to drive, unless it has suffered some damage, and there was no mention of that. The fact that Leclerc had alluded to a problem that had been discussed before the race suggests that the problem was not entirely unexpected or ‘strange’.

George Russell, who successfully chased down Leclerc for third place, believed that the Ferrari was protecting the plank. Slowing down early at the end of the straight to stop the car bottoming out was a bit of a tell.

Positives

On the positive side, Leclerc scored his first pole position of the season and up to the last 20 laps or so, was in control of the race. If indeed it was a ‘strange chassis problem’, and that problem can be fixed, then Leclerc is in the game.

While Leclerc was setting the quickest time in qualifying and leading the race, Lewis Hamilton qualified in 12th place and finished 12th. He is 4-10 down to Leclerc in qualifying and 2-12 in the GPs. He has never enjoyed these ground effect era cars and his switch to Ferrari has not worked out.

His last two qualifying efforts have seen him in 16th and 12th places on Saturday. His race pace is generally better, but his head has dropped. Hamilton has gone out in Q2 for the last two years in Zandvoort, while is teammate managed 3rd and 4th respectively. Does another Q2 exit beckon?

We will learn a lot about the potential of the Ferrari after this weekend’s race. A nice straight-forward weekend in terms of the race will show whether they have indeed got an inbuilt problem with the chassis, or whether something just broke in Hungary.

Mercedes 

Have gone back to the future in terms of their suspension. They have ditched an ‘upgrade’ that was in effect a downgrade, and reverted back to an old, tried and tested set up.

Russell finished third in Hungary and set the fastest lap. Antonelli scored his first point in four races in Hungary and while they are not in the hunt for race wins (unless there is another race in Montreal), at least the car is more predictable.

The cooler weather forecast for this weekend should help but the twisty nature of the track may not. Russell’s prospect of another podium finish depends on what happens with Charles Leclerc. Antonelli might be back in the hunt for minor points.

Red Bull 

Verstappen says that Red Bull will not win another race this season. He could be right. Ferrari are now quicker and the move by Mercedes to go back to their old suspension set up has made them more competitive.

Looking at Verstappen’s qualifying pace tells a story. In the first seven races of the season, his average qualifying position was 2.71. In the last seven races, it is 4.28. Tsunoda’s run of pointless races is now at seven. He has been given the new floor, but this is a team on the slide and even having the best driver on the grid in the cockpit is not going to hide that fact.

Just as the Dutch GP enters the twilight of its run on the F1 calendar, so has Red Bull’s run as being the team to beat. This is Verstappen’s home race and his record here is 1/1/1/2, so another podium cannot be ruled out, but his odds of 1.85 to do so are not tempting.

Williams 

Still hanging on to fifth place in the Constructors’ Championship, but they are being reeled in. Aston Martin are just 18 points behind and picking up double points finishes. Sauber are 19 points behind and are the most improved team on the grid in the last six races. One or both of those teams will pass Williams, who were the first to stop development on the 2025 cars.

Carlos Sainz is really struggling in qualifying, averaging 15th on Saturdays in the last seven GP qualifying sessions, compared to an average of 9th in the first seven. In the same period, Albon’s average qualifying position has slipped 2.43 places.

Sainz has scored just one point from the last six GPs and Albon just two points finishes from his last six. The team have not scored a point here since the race returned in 2021, and the car has historically been a bit sensitive in windy conditions.

Aston Martin 

The ship has been steadied. After a run of six pointless races, their Spanish GP upgrade has seen Aston Martin score points in five of the last six, and double points finishes twice in the last three races.

The two drivers are tied on 26 points each but Alonso has scored all of his in the last six races, Stroll has scored 12 points in his last six. Fernando Alonso has a very good track record here with form figures of 6/6/2/10. Stroll has scored just one point, back in 2022. More points for Alonso looks a strong possibility.

Form Flip Flop

The flip flop in form shown between Spa and Hungary is a bit concerning. The team do have a history of making missteps in developments, but their Spanish GP upgrade set them on a run of four points scoring races. Then they completely bombed in Belgium. In the GP qualifying they qualified 19th and 20th and finished 14th and 17th. Then they rock up to Hungary and qualify 5th and 6th, finishing 5th and 7th, their best result of the season so far. A night and day change in form.

It had me confused…and it had the team confused. They had a new front wing for Hungary, but it wasn’t expected to have that much improvement in it. Did they just luck in to a really good new front wing design that has reduced drag and improved downforce by powering up the diffuser with a more powerful under car air flow? Was it more track specific? The Hungaroring is a slow speed, high downforce circuit, Spa is a fast-flowing track that demands aero efficiency.

It could be that, yes, the new front wing has improved the car but the nature of the Hungaroring was a good fit for the car and Spa wasn’t. We will learn more this weekend, although, Zandvoort isn’t a great form guide for other tracks, so the ‘learnings’ may be limited.

Sauber 

The Bank of Sauber has been paying out some great dividends since the Spanish GP. The bookmakers have been asleep at the wheel when pricing Hulkenberg and Bortoleto up recently, and we have taken full advantage.

It has not been entirely straightforward, however. Nico Hulkenberg has not scored in the last two races after a run of four top tens, including a 3rd and 5th. His problem has been in qualifying, which is usually a strength of the German veteran.

Since the Spanish upgrade, Hulkenberg’s average qualifying position has been 16.83. His race performance has been significantly better with an average finishing position of 9.42 for the same period. If he can just qualify nearer 10th than 20th, his chances of more points are strong.

Bortoleto has kept the team’s good run going and he has picked up three top 10 finishes in the last four races. He has been getting the better of Hulkenberg in qualifying lately as well, out qualifying the German in the last four races. Hulkenberg has yet to finish in the points in his previous two races here, but his chances this season are better than before.

Racing Bulls

Hadjar’s great start to the season has fallen away and he has failed to score in the last five races. The team will be grateful that Liam Lawson has found his scoring boots, and the Kiwi has picked up three top 8 finishes in the last four races. He has made Q3 in the same three races, so he has found some good form after a difficult start to the year.

Lawson has raced here in F1 before when he stood in for the injured Daniel Ricciardo. That was his F1 debut and he finished 13th in a wet race, having qualified in last place. Hadjar has three 6th place finishes in junior formulae.

Haas 

It is now ten races without scoring a point for Oliver Beraman. His DNF in Hungary ended a run of four consecutive 11th places, so he has been close. Ocon has not scored in the last three races. They still struggle in qualifying but pick up around four places in the races.

Ocon has scored in three of his four races here and Bearman has won in the junior formulae. The team have never scored a point in this GP, with Hulkenberg’s 11th place last year their best result. The midfield is very competitive and with Aston Martin and Sauber showing much improved form, Haas are getting squeezed.

Alpine 

Have a good track record here, having scored points in all four races, including a podium for Gasly in 2023. Gasly has three points finishes here with a worst of 11th in 2022. They had double points scoring races here from 2021 to 2023, so they know how to set the car up for this track.

That it is not a particularly power hungry track helps Alpine be more competitive. I wouldn’t rule out this weekend being one of the tracks were Alpine can challenge for points, but they are very hard to call.

Colapinto has scored podiums here in junior formula races. His 2025 form remains poor with no points scored and best finish of 13th (x2).

2025 Dutch GP Summary

We picked up a modest 2.65 point profit in Hungary. That means five consecutive profitable races and after the disastrous start to the season, we are now just -3.42 points down. Hopefully the good run can continue at the 2025 Dutch GP.

The Dutch GP has never really floated my boat. It is an OK track, but not a great one. The form going into the holidays should carry through quite well into this weekend.

The teams have to completely shut down for three weeks in August and there cannot be many more upgrades in the pipeline for the teams now. They can still refine and improve on recent upgrades, but it is hard to expect anyone pulling off the kind off big performance improvements we have seen at Sauber and Aston Martin.

McLaren On Top

McLaren are still the team to beat. They are saying that they expect to come under pressure from Ferrari in the run to the end of the season. Ferrari are still trying to get the most out of recent upgrades and while the car has got quicker, they still have problems.

Ferrari are always under pressure to perform especially after bringing a seven-time world champion into the team, without any great success. I would say they are a bigger threat in qualifying and sprint races than over a full race distance. The McLaren is a strong race car and while we might see a win for another team in the next ten races, it might take a strange set of circumstances, like the two McLarens taking each other out.

That very nearly happened in Canada and again in Hungary and as the finish line gets close, we can expect the pressure on the two McLaren drivers to mount. Eventually one of them will break the Papaya rules.

Norris has won three of the last four races and won here last year. He is a 2.60 shot, with Piastri the marginal 2.50 favourite. There is nothing between them and I am happy to leave the race win market alone, for now.

2025 Dutch GP Qualifying

The fastest qualifier market does offer something of interest. McLaren have been beaten to pole position six times this season, twice as many times as they have not won the GP. Verstappen has had four poles, Russell one and Leclerc one.

Leclerc’s was in the final race before the summer break and confirmed that Ferrari are getting more performance out of the car after various upgrades. The jury is still out regarding if they can do it in a race, but they have had decent one lap pace, and they have improved in that area.

In the last seven GP qualifiers, Leclerc has had that one pole and two other front rows. He has improved his average qualifying position by two places in the last seven races, compared to the first seven. He qualified on the front row here in 2022.

Leclerc was only 0.026 ahead of the McLaren of Piastri in Hungary and on a short lap the margin is likely to be very close again. The question is, go e/w with three places at 10.00 and 1/5 the odds, or just go win only at 11.00? I may regret it, but I’ll go for the win only bet.

2025 Dutch GP Tip: 1 point Charles Leclerc to be the fastest qualifier @ 11.00 with Betfred

Staying with qualifying, I can’t pass up the chance to back George Russell vs. Lewis Hamilton. Russell is 12-2 vs. Hamilton in 2025, and on this track as Mercedes teammates 2-1. I do not expect Hamilton to be as dire as he has been in the last two qualifying sessions, but it is fair to say he is a bit crestfallen with his qualifying efforts in 2025. Hopefully some of you can get on with Livescorebet, but they have finally closed me down.

2025 Dutch GP Tip: 2 points George Russell to out qualify Lewis Hamilton @ 1.67 with Livescorebet, Unibet

2025 Dutch GP: Podium Finish

The Podium Finish market has Leclerc at 2.75, Russell 3.25 and Verstappen 1.85. They are the most likely contenders to join the two McLaren drivers on the podium. It is Russell who has done that more often than the other two. He now has six podium finishes, Verstappen and Leclerc five. Leclerc has had four in the last seven races, Verstappen just one.

That does suggest that Leclerc is the more likely, but the way his Ferrari succumbed to Russell in Hungary makes his odds look a bit tight. Mercedes have switched back to their old suspension set up and he is happier with the car again. It is a bet that depends on whether Ferrari have been able to find a solution to the problem they had in Hungary. Given that they had to shut down for three weeks, maybe not. It is prudent to hold fire for now.

The Top Six

Top six betting has proved a tough nut to crack. I picked the wrong Sauber in Hungary, which was a shame, but the likes of Alonso, Hulkenberg and Bortoleto are all contenders now. As Tsunoda, Antonelli and even Hamilton and Verstappen have been struggling recently, we have the potential for a couple of midfielders to break into the top six.

In the last seven races Sauber have scored three top six finishes, Racing Bulls two and one each for Aston Martin, Alpine and Williams.

If Sauber could just sort out their qualifying pace, they would be a stick on as their race pace is very strong. Bortoleto has managed Q3 in three of his last four races, so maybe he, despite never having raced an F1 car here before, will lead the Sauber charge. I am determined to bag one these bets before the season is done.

2025 Dutch GP Tip: 1 point Gabriel Bortoleto to finish in the top six @ 11.00 with Boylesports

Points Finish

Fernando Alonso has a good record here, only once out of the top 6 and always in the top 10. He is just 2.75 for his second top six of the season and I would rather take Bortoleto at much better odds. Alonso can be backed at 1.67 to finish in the points, which is a decent price for a much more achievable target. He has made the top 10 in five of the last six races, which sits well with his track record.

2025 Dutch GP Tip: 2 points Fernando Alonso to finish in the points @ 1.67 with Betfair, Betfred, Skybet

I am reluctant to put too many bets on early, but there are some tempting odds. The final bet was a toss up between a points finish for Gasly, or Hulkenberg.

Gasly and Alpine go well here, but they are a bit of a mystery team, very hard to predict when they will be competitive. Gasly is a 3.50 shot and he has had four top 10 finishes from the fourteen races so far. His odds are not particularly generous.

Sauber are the highest scoring midfield team since the Spanish GP. That was the race where the new front wing flex tests kicked in and the race where a lot of big upgrade packages were introduced. Hulkenberg has scored points in four of the last six races, and the team have scored in all six.

The car can do it, Hulkenberg can do it, but he needs to get his finger out in qualifying. His teammate has been getting into Q3 recently, and Hulkenberg really should be able to qualify around the top 10 mark, and if he does, he is odds on for points. There is still some juice in Sauber’s odds despite all their recent progress.

2025 Dutch GP Tip: 1 point Nico Hulkenberg to finish in the points @ 3.25 generally available

With so many ante-post bets, the rest of the weekend might be a bit quiet betting wise, but there will be updates for qualifying and the race.

-JamesPunt