2025 Emilia-Romagna GP Qualifying Update

Now, it is time for James Punt’s 2025 Emilia-Romagna GP Qualifying preview. You can check out his outright, team-by-team preview here.

2025 Emilia-Romagna GP Qualifying

With the three practice sessions wrapped up we have a much better idea of the relative pace of the cars ahead of this afternoon’s qualifying. There are a few headscratchers but I think we can tell who is competing for pole position.

Of the six GP qualifying sessions in 2025, only two teams have prevailed, Red Bull and McLaren. For Red Bull, read Max Verstappen who has been on pole for three of the last four races. Norris got pole in the first race of the year, but just two front rows since then. Piastri has had two pole positions and another two front rows.

FP3 Times

Looking at the times in FP3, where the meaningful qualifying simulations have been run, and it looks clear that the battle for pole is once again between the two McLarens and Max Verstappen.

Mercedes have occasionally thrown their hat into the qualifying ring, but they have been strangely off the pace this weekend. They have had a car in fourth place in each session but they do not look to be in the mix for the front row. They seemed to be running with a low PU setting yesterday but unless they are leaving turning it up to the very last minute, they look to be second row contenders at best.

McLaren have been fastest in all three sessions so far, so that means they get pole right? No. It all depends on Max Verstappen. He has had three of the last four pole positions, but there were few signs that he would be getting pole in any of them. In Miami he had been no better than fourth in practice, in Jeddah he had been third in FP2 and in Japan never better than fifth.

Max Off Pace

Yesterday Verstappen was well off the pace, with a best placing of fifth in FP2. Red Bull are masters of improving their car from Friday to Saturday and today Max was right up there. He ended up third, 0.181 seconds behind Norris in first place.

That is a fairly big gap, but he was over 0.5 seconds off the pace in Japan, 0.845s off the pace in Jeddah. Miami was a sprint race format and it is harder to slide that one into the argument, but he had not been better than fourth in any session before qualifying proper.

Compared to his pre-qualifying performances before he landed his three pole positions, he is a lot closer this weekend. Verstappen has qualified on pole position here for the last two races, Piastri was second last year, with Norris third, as he was in 2022.

Flying lap Pace

The McLaren is the faster car, but over one flying lap? Clearly not always. In fact Verstappen has had 50% of the GP pole positions in 2024, but the perception is that the faster car should be on pole, and it will be obviously, but there is one lap fast, and race fast.

A car that is kind to its tyres is usually less competitive over one lap than it is over a race distance. The McLaren is a much better race car than qualifier because it is much better at managing tyre degradation. That pays dividends on Sunday, but there is a price to pay on Saturday. The points are handed out on Sunday, so McLaren are doing the right thing.

They will risk losing out on the race win in Monaco, maybe Hungary and any track where overtaking is very hard. Imola may be one of those tracks but of the four previous races here as the Emilia Romagna GP, the pole sitter has only won twice, so it is not as pole dependant as some tracks.

Perception

The perception of McLaren as having the fastest car means that the market makes them the 1.3 favourite to have the pole winning car, and Piastri and Norris both 2.50 to be the fastest qualifier. That leaves Verstappen as the third favourite at 5.00. That despite being the fastest qualifier in three of the last four races and being on pole here for the last two.

Sometimes the market gets it wrong. It is my job to try a find occasions when it does. I have been doing that job badly in 2025, but there is only one logical choice for me, and that is Max Verstappen.

Verstappen is the best driver on the grid, by some margin. This old school Imola track is a driver’s track. It is difficult to get right and it is easy to make mistakes. The best drivers will be faster than the not so good ones. As the best driver on the grid, Verstappen is the most likely to be able to string the best lap together.

Given my strike rate this year, he will probably crash in Q1, but he is the value bet…by some margin and it would be foolish not to have a good go at it.

2025 Emilia-Romagna GP Qualifying Tip: 2 points Max Verstappen to be the fastest qualifier @ 5.00 with SpreadEx

One other bet is on the qualifying winning margin. Of the six GP qualifying sessions in 2025, five have been under 0.10 seconds. All Verstappen’s winning margins have been by a whisker and it will be a very stressful session. Three of the four qualifying sessions here have seen winning margins of less than 0.10 and the one that was, was in a sprint race weekend, which can skew things.

2025 Emilia-Romagna GP Qualifying Tip: 1 point qualifying winning margin to be less than 0.10 seconds @ 1.67 with Ladbrokes

-JamesPunt