2025 Emilia-Romagna GP Raceday Update

Now, it is time for James Punt’s 2025 Emilia-Romagna GP Raceday preview. We landed our winning margin bet in qualifying but Max missed out on pole by a whisker.

2025 Emilia-Romagna GP Raceday

The race winner was very likely decided yesterday, but there is plenty of interest elsewhere on the grid.

Our two point bet on Verstappen to get pole position was dashed by 0.034 seconds, but at least it was partially offset by the winning margin bet landing. It was a great bet, even though it lost. If you can get 5.00 on what was effectively a coin toss, you’ll do very well in the long run.

The pole sitter at the Emilia Romagna GP has won the last two GPs here, but the first two came from second and third on the grid. Piastri has converted his first two pole positions of 2025 and he is the 1.54 favourite to do so again. The McLarens’ greatest strength is its race pace thanks to its lower rate of tyre degradation, which should pay dividends today.

Pirelli have brough their softest range of tyres, meaning that some teams might need to make two stops, but with this track having the biggest loss of time for a pitstop of any track on the calendar (circa 28 seconds) everyone will be striving to make just one, or at least hope for a well-timed safety car to allow for a cheaper stop.

Overtaking Tricky

Overtaking is difficult on this narrow track for these wide cars and any change of position will be more likely to come via the pitstops or at the start. There is a long run into the first corner and Verstappen will know that his slim chance of winning depends on him getting the lead of the race at turn 1 and then being the cork in a McLaren bottle.

It would still be very difficult to pull off. The one DRS zone does offer up a chance to pass, but if the defending driver is savvy, he can make sure his battery is fully charged going into it and deploying it to defend. That might give him some breathing space, but not for long.

Piastri A Tough Nut

Verstappen and Piastri have clashed already this season and the difference between Verstappen clashing with Norris and Piastri is interesting. Verstappen learned that he was able to bully Norris. The Englishman tended to yield in close combat. Piastri hasn’t. There is now a doubt in Verstappen’s head. If he leans on the Aussie, and he doesn’t yield, is Verstappen prepared to crash?

It is a good thing for Piastri to be robust. He has the beating of Norris and it may well be that it is Verstappen who will be his nearest rival in the Championship. If he lets Verstappen know that he is not going to yield, that is half the battle.

Norris, on the other hand, has already signalled his intentions at the start. “Of course, the start is my biggest opportunity, but to get past more than one person off the line here is not very easy, it’s very narrow, and I’m racing with drivers who take a lot of risks. It’s a long season, and I’ve got to balance my way through it.” That sounds an awful lot like “I will yield”.

2025 Emilia-Romagna GP Raceday: The Weather

So far, the weather has been fine, warm and sunny. There have been showers in the area but very isolated and not heavy. Today’s forecast says 24 degrees, mostly sunny, with 0% chance of rain.

Team-by Team

McLaren 

It all looks good for a Piastri win. A first lap collision is his biggest threat. Norris starts a very disappointing fourth. His head is down and the white flag is out. He has the car to at least get a podium and he should be able to finish second.

Red Bull 

Verstappen very nearly landed another pole position yesterday, but he lost a bit of time in the middle sector having blitzed the first. His chances of winning the race would have been slim even if he had pulled it off. Now that he starts second, slim is outta town.

Verstappen is probably racing for third place, but if Norris is playing things cautiously, maybe Max can make second. Tsunoda had a huge crash in Q1, not even setting a time. I suspect he will have to start from the pit lane and his race is run.

Mercedes 

Brought a lot of upgrades to the car and Russell got surprisingly close to the front row, even with a compromised final run in Q3. His problem has been that the Mercedes doesn’t have the race pace of the McLaren. Maybe the upgrade will help address that.

Russell, like the Aston Martins, decided that it was better to burn a set of medium tyres in Q3 to get a better grid position, than to save them for the race. He now has no new medium tyres. The expected strategy is a one stopper, with the combination of medium – hard, or hard medium. As he starts third, he is more likely to start on the mediums and the cars around him will all have a new set to get off the line with. That may cost him.

Antonelli has had a poor weekend. It is his home race, he lives a short drive away, and home races can go two ways, unfortunately for Antonelli the distraction of the added attention has worked against him. He starts back in thirteenth and the driver starting there has finished 8th and 9th in the last two races here. He may have to settle for something similar.

Aston Martin

Yesterday’s performance in qualifying was a big deal for Aston Martin. They brought the biggest upgrade of any team on the grid this weekend, and it worked. Both cars into Q3 and Alonso as high as fifth.

Their new principle, Andy Cowell, had targeted sorting out Aston Martin’s appalling record of failed upgrades, and he has pulled it off. Managerial success.

Ahead of the all-important 2026 season, it is vital that Aston Martin have the best management to go with the best facilities and best designer. One big box has been ticked and that is a big hint that they are on their way to be a serious outfit, rather than a rich man’s vanity project.

Downside

The downside for both Alonso and Stroll is that they have no new mediums and no new hards. They are a team that have deliberately scrubbed tyres before the race in past seasons, believing that it would help with performance.

However, there is a difference between a scrubbed set of tyres, and ones that have been used in qualifying. Both cars will be compromised at the start and whatever tyres they put on at the pitstop will have had some life taken out of them.

We are on Alonso to score points and even with a less than ideal tyre situation, he is in a good position, starting from fifth. My biggest concern is that by having only used tyres, that may push them towards the dreaded two stopper.

Williams 

At one point it looked like Sainz was going to crash the pole party. He was fastest in Q2 and said that it was his best lap in a Williams car. In the end he ended up in sixth place and that is now three sixth places in a row in qualifying. His finishing positions for the last two? 8th and 9th.

Albon starts from seventh place and he has had better race executions, converting 7th on the grid in Miami to a fifth place finish. They are up there on merit and while they have two Ferraris and Mercedes behind them, it is not a given that they will get past the two Williams. Their third double points finish is on the cards.

Racing Bulls 

We are on Hadjar for a points finish and while he didn’t execute Q3 to the best of his abilities, he starts from ninth place. He is upbeat about the car’s race pace but he may have to rely on the Aston Martins dropping back if he is to stay in the points. With the Aston Martin being a very different beast this weekend, that is not a given. Hopefully he can manage it. Lawson starts back in fifteenth place and he continues to disappoint.

Alpine 

Ultimately a disappointing qualifying for Gasly who had looked very quick at times in practice. Their relative lack of power is not such a big handicap here. His race pace has been decent so far, but Ferrari are likely to be better over a race distance, as is Antonelli.

Colapinto got off to a bad start at Alpine, crashing out in Q2. He then got a grid penalty for not following the race director’s instructions at the session restart in Q1. He now starts in 16th place and he has one job. Not to crash.

Ferrari 

Embarrassing. Ferrari held back their big upgrade and with Aston Martin bringing theirs, both Ferraris got pushed out in Q2. The car is just very slow in qualifying. It was struggling through the chicanes and while last year’s car was very strong in slow corners, and at kerb riding, this year’s car is not.

Leclerc has said that Monaco is going to be very difficult. The car’s long run pace on Friday was good but they haven’t made massive strides in the previous races. Starting right in the middle of the pack makes the first lap riskier and with overtaking difficult, both drivers could be in for a difficult race.

Sauber 

Bortoleto made it out of Q1, or did he? Haas remain adamant that Bearman had been faster than Bortoleto in Q1 but his lap time was not counted by the stewards, and hence Bortoleto got through and will start from 14th place. He started 13th in Miami but retired from the race with engine problems. His best finish so far is 17th place in China so a good result would be to better that. Hulkenberg had traffic problems in Q1 and starts in 17th place.

Haas

They brought updates to the car but they didn’t make much difference. Bearman showed some reasonable pace in FP2 and FP3 but Ocon was last in all three practice sessions. They are very hard to understand but seem to have taken a step backwards since 2024. What they have done is have much better race pace than qualifying pace and they will make up places today.

2025 Emilia-Romagna GP Raceday Summary

I have awarded the race to Piastri but odds of 1.54 are not for me. There is the chance that he and Verstappen clash on lap one and that should be a caution for anyone trying to buy money.

Verstappen may just have to watch Piastri pull away in the race, and his real race is with Russell and Norris for a podium place. His qualifying performances have been better than his race performances as the Red Bull can’t live with the McLarens in terms of tyre degradation. Verstappen is 3-3 with Russell in 2025 and with the exception of Miami, whichever driver has qualified ahead has finished ahead.

Norris has been better in the races than in qualifying and so long as he keeps out of trouble on lap one, he should be able to have another good recovery drive but lose more ground to Piastri.

Piastri, Norris Verstappen for the 1,2,3.

We are on Alonso for a top 10 finish, so fingers crossed for that one, and also for Hadjar who has the harder job.

2025 Emilia-Romagna GP Raceday Tips

Carlos Sainz now looks like he has got to grips with the Williams. Third in FP1, sixth in FP3 and sixth in qualifying. He has not converted a sixth place start into a top six finish in the last two races, but his teammate, Alex Albon, has had two sixth places finishes in 2025, so the car has the pace to do it. Sainz has been the quicker of the two this weekend and he looks a reasonable bet to get his third top six finish at Imola.

2025 Emilia-Romagna GP Raceday Tip: 1 point Carlos Sainz to finish in the top six @ 2.70 with Betfair

We haven’t had a group bet for a while, but there looks to be something of interest today. Ladbrokes Group 3 is made up of Antonelli, Hadjar, Gasly and Stroll.

Kimi Antonelli is the favourite at 2.25, despite starting in 13th place, the lowest of anyone in the group. He may have the fastest car in the group, but he has really struggled in all but FP3. He was fourth in that, but no better than thirteenth in any other session. Hadjar is the 3.25 second favourite, Stroll the third favourite at 4.00, with Gasly the 5.00 outsider.

The one that catches my eye is Stroll at 4.00. He starts in eighth place, effectively the pole sitter in the group. Is this a case of a driver being underrated because of a state of disbelief that the Aston Martin made such a huge jump in performance?

Big Upgrades

Aston Martin brought the biggest upgrade of anyone to this race. With both cars making Q3, both having their best qualifying result of the year by a big margin, it could just be that the upgrade works and works very well. It is not like Aston Martin to do good upgrades, but they have changed things to make sure they now do.

There is also the fact that Stroll loves the track and has gone well here. Yes, he is no great shakes, but in the last three races here he has finished 8/10/9. Give him the tools and he can do the job, at Imola at least. I think he has a decent chance to win this group. The fact that they have no new medium or hard tyres is my biggest concern, but at the odds, I’ll have a go.

2025 Emilia-Romagna GP Raceday Tip: 1 point Lance Stroll to win Group 3 @ 4.00 with Ladbrokes

Lando Norris might be watching his chances of being World Champion sail over the horizon, but he is still in the best car. He has scored three fastest laps from the first six races and as he is having to play catch up because of poor qualifying, you can see why.

Piastri will be looking to control the race from the front and look after his tyres. There is no point awarded for getting the fastest lap anymore, so there is no point in going for it, just for the hell of it. Norris is 2.80 for fastest lap.

Maybe it is better to back him to win the race ‘without Piastri’ at 2.75? He has finished second three times and has had two 1-2 finishes with Piastri but I’ll stick with the fastest lap. McLaren have had four form six so far.

2025 Emilia-Romagna GP Raceday Tip: 1 point Lando Norris to set the fastest lap of the race @ 2.80 with Boylesports

I am always looking at the Haas cars on race day. Nobody makes up more places than they do. Ocon has really struggled and Bearman looks to be their best driver this weekend. Because of some timing cock up, he starts in nineteenth, one place behind Ocon, but he should have been allowed into Q2 and his pace is better than nineteenth.

Bearman is 1.67 to beat his teammate, but he is in Ladbrokes Group 4. That is a six man group with Lawson, Colapinto, Bortoleto, Hulkenberg and Tsunoda. Bearman has made up five places per race on average and he can beat anyone in the group on merit, except Tsunoda. The Japanese driver is in a Red Bull. He may not be very comfortable in it, but it is a Red Bull. If he doesn’t bin it again, he must have a good chance.

Tsunoda is 4.50 to win the group, Bearman 6.50. Tsunoda was struggling in the car and it was his mistake that caused him to crash, so he is not banker material. The fact that Bearman has to start nineteenth is the straw that breaks the bet. It is hard to overtake and that might be enough to cost him a chance.

-JamesPunt