2025 F1 Season Ante-Post Betting Preview

Now, it is time for part two of James Punt’s 2025 F1 Season preview. James has already posted part 1 where he took an in-depth look at the new regulations and weighed up the prospects of every team. In this preview, his mission is to find some value wagers, check out his 2025 F1 Season ante-post betting preview below.

2025 F1 Season – Testing

This season’s three day pre-season test was the most uneventful, dull test I have ever seen, and I have seen a lot. Nothing really happened. There was a power cut on day two and we got two red flags. One for a bus getting on an access road while the cars were on track, the other was when a pane of glass fell off the starter’s gantry and unto the track.

All the teams got plenty of miles under their belt. Reliability was ridiculously good, nobody crashed and there were a handful of spins on what was a cold track for the first two days. It was hard to draw any strong conclusions, except to say that we shouldn’t expect much in the way of cars retiring because of mechanical issues.

We never really know what the fuel levels in the car are, or what engine mode is being used and so on and there is no absolutely firm pecking order, but in my opinion, it looks like we will have a close season, much like last year, but one team stands out, for now at least.

McLaren

Got my vote as best in test, due to their very strong long run pace. At least for long runs, we know that they have to have a fair amount of fuel in the car and McLaren were clearly the fastest in the race sims. Toto Wollf said that Norris was ‘on another planet’ on day two. One lap pace? Not so clear. Bahrain has not been a great circuit for McLaren, so a good showing here was another positive.

Ferrari

Seemed reasonably content with their performance and do look to be the closest to McLaren. The car wasn’t entirely straightforward, with a lack of balance at times. A loose rear end here, a bit of understeers there. It wasn’t terrible, but just not as good as the McLaren.

Their straight line performance was good. Hamilton looked more comfortable in the Ferrari than he has in the Mercedes of the last three years. He was able to brake later into the corners, and he looked to have more confidence in the car. Not perfect, but a reasonable starting point.

Red Bull

Set some good times with Verstappen, but they did more work to their car than anyone else. It looked like they were searching for a better setup. All that time tinkering in the garage meant that Red Bull completed the least number of laps over the three days with 304, 154 less than Mercedes. That has to be a bit of a negative, but not a huge one.

They never got a proper race run in during the test thanks to little niggles that kept the car in the garage for too long. It certainly does not look like a return to form car wise, at least for now. The car was not performing entirely as expected according to technical director Pierre Wache, and Verstappen said that there work to do. The car can be quick, but has a small sweet-spot right now.

Mercedes

Were happy enough. Antonelli did seem to have some problems with locking his brakes and overshooting some corners. Russell gave a note of caution in that they got the cool conditions that the car likes, which may have flattered them.

Mercedes got more laps completed than any other team, with 458 laps. The car looked more driver friendly than the 2025 car, but we won’t know until they are out of their comfort zone in hotter conditions.

Aston Martin

Started the test looking in better shape, but as it went on, they started to look slower than most. They also only got two more laps run than Red Bull, so another negative there. In 2025, Aston Martin were detached from the top four, but ahead of the bottom five. It will be interesting to see where Aston Martin end up this time.

I feel that they may find themselves in a scrap with Williams and maybe Alpine. Certainly, that 5th place is not theirs by right. The mood music around the team is not good. Alonso is hinting that they are far from being good shape and there was little cheer from any team member.

Williams

Were quick and ran trouble free. They got 395 miles completed and for me, were one of the better teams at the test. Of course, they have just signed up a big new title sponsor, and they may have been tempted to run a bit light and turn the wick up just to get more media attention. One team spokesperson actually said as much, without saying that actually did turn everything up to eleven.

However, that would not be a smart thing to do. It just raises expectations and that can lead to a lot of eggs on faces when the real racing starts. Carlos Sainz is saying that they will not be getting any top 5 finishes and trying to lower expectations. But why say ‘Top 5’? Does that mean that top 6 is realistic?

I tend to think that Williams are now seeing the fruits of all the behind the scenes investments in infrastructure. A positive season awaits.

Alpine

Will still be running the Renault power unit, so they will still be lacking in terms of horsepower. The team made good progress in the latter half of 2025 and a better management structure will help. Their driver line up is not great, but Gasly can do a good job if he gets the right car.

The car looked good in testing, so I will be keeping a close watch on this team, and maybe they can move up the pecking order.

Haas

Had a good 2024. They started out by saying that they would finish last, but ended the season in seventh place, ahead of Racing Bulls, Willams and Sauber.

At the Bahrain test, Haas were not showing their hand. They tended to run on the harder tyres and never really looked like they were going for performance runs unit the last hour of day three. As a result, it is hard to say where they are, but around the same place as 2024 is my guess.

Racing Bulls & Sauber

That leaves us with Racing Bulls and Sauber. Nether car looked in great shape. Nico Hulkenberg looked a bit down in the mouth and that tells me the Sauber is worse than last year’s Haas, again.

The Racing Bulls looked a bit tricky to drive. Lots of understeer was a feature in the test. They will be better than the Sauber, but staying ahead of Williams in 2025 looks less likely. The Racing Bulls finished 2024 with 46 points but I would be surprised if they score more than Williams in 2025.

Top Four Set?

The general feeling is that the top four of last year, were the top four of the 2025 test, and likely in the same order. Some observers have Mercedes ahead of Ferrari, but when we get to a hotter track, will that still be the case?

In a season which sees the cars being evolutions of the 2024 cars, no great change in the pecking order shouldn’t be a surprise. The truth is that we won’t really have a clear pecking order until we have had three or four race weekends completed. The midfield is likely to very competitive again and that will be an area where good bets may arise.

2025 F1 Season ante-post Preview: Constructors’ Championship

Constructors’ Championships tend to run in cycles. Only once this century has the constructors’ title been held for one year only. That was Brawn in 2009, a team that only existed for one season. They never had the chance to defend their title.

Strictly speaking, they became Mercedes Formula 1 team in 2010, operating out of the same factory with the same people. The driver line up was changed, with Button and Barrichello ousted, replaced by Michael Schumacher and Nico Rosberg.

Schumacher was past his best by then and Mercedes only finished in fourth place. It wasn’t until the new power unit regulations came into force in 2014, did Mercedes embark on their run of eight consecutive constructors championships.

Will History Repeat?

Before Brawn, the last team to hold their Constructors’ Championship title for only one year was…. McLaren. They won it in 1998 but only regained the title last year. It could be a case of history repeating itself, but the record books suggests that McLaren should hang on to the championship this time round. Since 1981, the last forty four years, the Constructors’ Championship title has been held for one year only on just three occasions.

McLaren have to start as favourites to retain the Constructors’ Championship. The regulations are stable and they had the best car of 2024. Not massively the best car, but it was the most consistently competitive. It had the biggest sweet spot and that was the difference.

The team looks much the same as it did last year personnel wise. Everything is in place for a successful defence. Their Driver line up is strong but there is room for improvement from the team operationally, and the drivers’ on track performances.

Lucky

McLaren were far from great in 2024. They were lucky that Perez completely lost his form at Red Bull. Ferrari struggled with upgrades at times and Mercedes have never got to grips with these ground effect cars.

McLaren started the season without a fully finished car. They were late getting everything ready for the first races and it was not until the sixth race of the season that they finally had the full 2024 spec car available. They should hit the ground running in 2025 and be fully competitive from the first race.

They also lost races they should have won, through poor strategy or the drivers tripping each other up. There is plenty of room for improvement for the defending champions. McLaren only finished fourteen points ahead of Ferrari in 2024. I expect a bigger margin of victory in 2025.

2025 F1 Season ante-post Preview: Drivers’ Championship

If McLaren are very likely to win the Constructors’ Championship, surely Norris, or Piastri should win the World Drivers’ Championship?

Looking back at the last forty years, the World Drivers’ Championship has been won by a driver sitting in the Constructors’ Championship winning car, thirty five times. Again, history suggests that the two drivers in the best car have an excellent chance of winning the Drivers’ Championship.

If I am right about McLaren winning the Constructors’ Championship, we only have to decide which of their two drivers is the more likely to be their biggest points scorer.

In 2023, which was Piastri’s debut season, Norris beat Piastri 17-5 in the Grand Prix. In 2024 it was 16-8 to Norris. A comprehensive 33-13 H2H record to Norris. Of course, Norris should be beating a driver with so little experience and Piastri narrowed the gap in his second year.

The Aussie was, and still is, improving as he gathers more experience. However, I would suggest that Norris is also still improving.

In terms of qualifying, a purer test of pace, Norris was 15-7 in 2023 and in 2024 Norris was 20-4.

H2H

In terms of their H2H records, Norris holds a comprehensive lead. More raw pace and better race craft. McLaren do not operate a number 1 and number 2 driver policy, or at least not until one driver is the clear leader in the latter stages of the season.

However, the results of their first two seasons as teammates suggest that there is a defacto number 1 driver, and it isn’t Oscar Piastri. If the Aussie is to have a realistic tilt at the title, he needs to get off to a good start and put himself in the frame, and hope that Norris suffers some bad luck.

The case for McLaren and Norris appears to be strong. But what about the threats?

Threats To McLaren

We have dealt with the threat from his teammate above. The threats from outside McLaren are Max Verstappen, Charles Leclerc, Lewis Hamilton and George Russell. It would be a huge surprise if any other team was going to be regularly competing with and beating the big four teams.

Max Verstappen has won the last four World Drivers’ Championships and it is fair to say that he is a generational talent. He is a driver that can, and did, win in what was not the best car. Verstappen’s problem is that he is unlikely to have the best car once again. His title last year was built on a great start, and that start was aided by McLaren not having their proper 2024 car ready until the sixth race of the season.

Catch Up

In the first five races, Verstappen filled his boots, winning four times. That left Norris having to play catch up. The driver with the points advantage is always likely to come off best when racing head to head with a rival. If they tangle and crash out, the leader is still the leader.

Verstappen knew that and was perfectly happy to be aggressive when racing Norris. He knew that Norris could not risk crashing and would back off or give him room. That may not be the case if Norris gets his nose in front in the Championship.

Norris will have to ‘man up’ or ‘grow a pair’ and he knows that. He also knows that to be ‘the man’ he needs to lead the Championship and make Verstappen do the backing off. I do not buy into the idea that Norris is too soft, he just needs to be in the position to be able to play hard ball.

Red Bull In Transition

Verstappen is racing for a team going through a transformation. There has been a large amount of turnover of key staff, not least Adrian Newey leaving the team. Morale in the team was poor at times in 2024, not helped by Mercedes making overtures to Verstappen mid-season. That and Verstappen’s father stirring the pot at every turn.

There was a smear campaign against team boss Christian Horner which was a massive distraction and that stench is still lingering. Red Bull racing has the look of a team that has come to the end of a period of excellence. They know that if they are to embark on another, it will be from 2026 onwards.

On a more positive note, Red Bull’s form at the end of 2024 was a little better. They did make the car a bit more competitive, maybe getting a better understanding of what made the car tick. They also have a new driver.

Perez was drowning in 2024 and that didn’t help morale. It will be interesting to see how Liam Lawson gets on. He doesn’t strike me as a great prospect and he will be the number two driver. The question is, will he be any better than Sergio Perez? That is not a given.

Of course, Red Bull were not even the second best team in 2024. They ended up in third place, behind both McLaren and Ferrari.

Hamilton To Ferrari

Ferrari pulled off a bit of a coup by signing Lewis Hamilton. The last two former World Champions to move to Ferrari, Sebastian Vettel and Fernando Alonso, both won a Grand Prix in their first two races for the Scuderia. Alonso did it on debut, Vettel in his second race. However, neither went on to win a World Championship for Ferrari.

The jury is still out in the Hamilton – Ferrari marriage. A shrewd move that gives him a chance of another World Championship, or a cynical marketing exercise designed to generate even more wealth for both parties?

Ferrari are going to be competitive but Hamilton is likely to require time to really settle in. Leclerc has to stick to his job and not spend too much time fretting over the arrival of Hamilton. Close but no cigar again?

Russell A Long Shot

The last of the possible contenders has to be George Russell, but he is something of a long shot. Mercedes have emphatically failed to build a competitive car during the ground effect era. They did finally give up on their much derided Zero pod design philosophy halfway through the 2023 season, and brought back their ace designer James Allinson to head up a new design for 2024. It made little difference. The team finished in fourth place, their lowest finishing position in the ground effect era.

What would be the point in Mercedes busting a gut and spending valuable resources in trying to make their 2025 car a world beater? Like everyone else, they know that getting next year’s design right is imperative.

Boy Wonder

The 2025 season can be used to bed in their new boy wonder, Kimi Antonelli, into the team, but the young Italian will be under the microscope like no other driver in 2025. There are five rookies coming into F1 this season but it is Antonelli who everyone will be looking at.

George Russell is now the team’s number 1 driver but it is hard to see him getting a car that will be able to regularly challenge McLaren, Ferrari or Verstappen. Mercedes were 198 points behind McLaren last year (Russell was 192 points shy of Verstappen) and a successful season may be finishing third if Red Bull unravel any further.

2025 F1 Season ante-post Preview: The Conclusion

This 2025 season is something of a phoney war. Everyone is looking at 2026 and the big regulation changes that will change everything.

Traditionally, seasons at the end of a regulatory cycle tend to be good in terms of the teams being closer to each other performance wise. The racing is better, everyone loves it, and then it all changes the next year, with one team running away with it.

Convergence is the word for 2025. Nobody is going to introduce any great new design or come up with a clever trick to make a big difference to their car. The flexi wing issue is an unwelcome bit of meddling by the FIA, and that might cause a mid-season form flip flop, but at least everyone has had a good amount of time to work on any new front wing designs that are necessary to meet the new tests.

Top Two

The top two teams are looking likely to be McLaren and Ferrari. There was only fourteen points between them in 2024. McLaren were too slow out of the blocks, and Ferrari struggled to make in season upgrades work in good time. Both teams have room for improvement.

Ferrari have changed their driver line up. Will Hamilton be able to settle in quickly and make the difference? Time will tell, but I give more points for continuity and McLaren have that in spades.

There are only two teams that have the same driver line up as last season, which is very unusual. McLaren and Aston Martin are unchanged, which is a bit ironic, as Aston Martin are the one team who really need a change in their driver line up.

Continuity Key

Do not underestimate the value of continuity. It is understandable that teams want to get the game of musical chairs out of the way in 2025, before the all-important 2026 season starts. However, when you bring in a new driver, or designer or team boss, it changes things and change takes time to take effect.

The regulations in 2025 are relatively stable, but there has been a lot of changes within the teams, not least in terms of the drivers. There are five ‘Rookie’ drivers and they take even longer to bed in. OK, Lawson, Bearman and Doohan have had at least one race in 2024, but none of the five has a full season under their belts.

Max Verstappen is the best driver on the grid, but will he have a car capable of allowing him to compete for the title? He is unlikely to get that big head-start that he had in 2024, and things are different if you are chasing rather than leading.

McLaren Look Likely

For me, McLaren tick all the boxes. Ferrari tick a lot of them, but the rest do not. Verstappen’s ability brings him into the frame but Red Bull score badly in terms of continuity. Mercedes are harder to call, but they have never been convincing under these regulations.

Convergence. Regulatory stability. Continuity (or lack of it). Three key features of this 2025 season. Continuity, if I am right, is what will swing it for McLaren.

Lando Norris was well backed after day two of testing in Bahrain. The analysts had him over 30 seconds faster over a race distance run. Nobody is arguing too much with that, but in terms of one lap pace, that looks closer.

Lando Norris is now the 2.75 favourite to win the Drivers’ Championship and Piastri 9.00. McLaren are 2.00 to win the Constructors Championship, with Ferrari the clear second on 2.63. Red Bull are 9.00, Mercedes 18.00.

2025 F1 Season ante-post Tip: 3 points Lando Norris to win the World Drivers Championship @ 2.75 with Ladbrokes, Skybet

Like last year, I feel that the Constructors’ Championship will be closer than the Drivers’ Championship. As such, I am happy to leave that market alone, for now. We got a nice price on McLaren mid-season, and maybe we can do something similar this year. It is a long season after all.

2025 F1 Season ante-post Side Markets

Formula 1 Side Markets used to be plentiful, but in recent years, the bookies have largely given up on them. There will be the usual, boring inter team H2Hs but there are very few that are going to be competitive.

Staying with the McLaren theme, the first side market bet is for Norris to win over 10 races. With a close competitive season predicted by just about everyone, that may be optimistic, but history suggests that we will get a good run for our money and that the odds are too big, and that is what value betting is all about.

Last 10 Seasons

Looking at the last ten seasons, the Championship winners, and that is what Norris should be, on average have won 11.4 races. It should be remembered that of those last ten seasons, only one had the 24 races that we will have in 2025.

The Championship winner won over 10.5 races five times in the last ten years. In the last two years that were just before major regulation changes, 2013 and 2012, it was 13 and 10 respectively. I think the true odds on this market are around 2.75. Of course, if you don’t think Norris will be the Champion, the same logic applies to your pick, and at bigger odds!

2025 F1 Season ante-post Tip: 1 point Lando Norris to win over 10 Grand Prix @ 10.50 with Pokerstars

2025 F1 Season ante-post: Driver H2H Match Bets

With so many rookies coming in for the 2025 season, and only two teams having the same driver line up as 2024, the seasonal H2H match ups are a bit tricky to get a grip on. Alonso will beat Lance Stroll, but he is around 1.05 to do so. Norris to beat Piastri again is 1.25, and neither is a working man’s bet.

A rookie coming into a team with an established incumbent will be right up against it. Antonelli is 6.00 to beat George Russell, Doohan 7.00 to beat Gasly, Lawson a massive 17.00 to beat Verstappen and Hadjar is 4.50 to beat Tsunoda.

We have Hamilton being the newbie at Ferrari and he is the 2.60 outsider to beat the incumbent Charles Leclerc.

Carlos Sainz is the exception. He is the new driver coming in at Williams, and the market expects him to be far too good for Albon. Sainz is a 1.20 shot, with Albon 4.15. Could that be a bit dismissive of Albon?

The situation is different again at Sauber and Haas. Both teams have two new drivers, and both have an experienced driver coming from another team, paired with a rookie.

Bortoleto Interesting

Nico Hulkenberg is 1.20 to beat Bortoleto, who is 4.10. This one could be interesting. Sauber scored just four points in 2024. That was courtesy of Guanyu Zhou’s eighth place in Qatar. That meant he beat Bottas, who was the odds on favourite to win that H2H.

If a team is so poor that they may not score, or only score once or twice, the outsider is worth considering. They could just get lucky once and that would be enough. Bortoleto is the 2023 F3 champion and the 2024 F2 champion, so he can drive and it is a shame for him that he could only get into a Sauber.

Hulkenberg deserves to be the favourite, but he is changing teams. The car and team are as new to him as they are to his teammate. He does know all the tracks and has a ton more experience, but he is having to adapt to a new tew team and a new car.

The car does look primed to be the worst on the grid, so it could be a case of struggling to get either driver into the points anywhere. It could be a draw, or Bibi could luck in.

2025 F1 Season ante-post Tip: 1 point Gabriel Bortoleto to beat Nico Hulkenberg @ 4.10 with Livescorebet

At Haas, Esteban Ocon comes over from Alpine. This will be the fourth different team he has raced for in F1, so at least he is used to the process of change. He was at Renault/Alpine for the last five seasons. While there he won a race and had four other podiums. He scored 309 points in those five years.

Ocon will be joined by Oliver Bearman, who is a near rookie as he has had just three F1 races. The first saw a seventh place in Saudi Arabia for Ferrari early last year when sitting in for Carlos Sainz. He finished tenth in Azerbaijan for Haas when Magnussen had a race ban. He out qualified Nico Hulkenberg and beat him in the race.

Bearman got to race for Haas again in Brazil when Magnussen was ill. He beat Hulkenberg in both sprint sessions and finished the maddest of races in twelfth place, again beating Hulkenberg who crashed out. Clearly, he was not afraid to take his chances and showed good pace.

Bearman has more knowledge of driving for and working with Haas than Ocon. He is not an incumbent driver, but neither is he a total rookie. He wasn’t very successful in the junior formula. He won a couple of F4 titles but his best finish in the F2 championship was sixth. However, he impressed enough to get the job here, and his limited F1 performances suggest that he will do fine. Bearman is 2.60 to beat Ocon, and sadly, that is not enough value to have a bet.

-JamesPunt