2025 GSOD Friday Preview & Tips – JP
2025 GSOD Friday Preview
Now, it is time for James Punt’s 2025 GSOD Friday preview. We managed to turn a small profit last night, fingers crossed we do even better this evening.
Thursday Reflections
It was a modest 0.9 point profit from Thursday night’s bets. We are now into the quarter finals and the matches are long, a best of 31 leg format.
Looking at the last forty quarter finals, 57.5% have seen over 27.5 legs and in recent years the tendency for close, long matches has increased. In the last five years 75% of the quarter finals have been over 27.5 legs, although in the last two years it has seen a 50-50 split.
In 2024 we had the biggest margin of victory in the tournament’s history when Luke littler (who else?) beat Jermaine Wattimena 16-2.
Ricky Evans vs. Gerwyn Price
It is a unique feature of this tournament that a player can lose a match, maybe even two, and still win the tournament. It is also the only ranking major tournament where you can play the same player twice. Evans and Price played each other in Group D and Ricky Evans won that 5-4. Both averaged 95 in what was a good match.
Since then, Price has beaten James Wade, Steffan Bellmont and Martin Schindler. His tournament average is 97.77. Price has played four Grand Slam quarter finals and won three, and three of the four saw over 27.5 legs.
Ricky Evans had never previously got beyond the group stage of a Grand Slam and he will never have played in a match of this potential length. Evans’ Tournament average is 94.46.
Evans has played a little bit above his seasonal average, Price pretty much bang on his. Their H2H record is 15-6 to Price, but Evans did get that group win a few days ago, which ended a run of eleven straight wins for Gerwyn Price.
Twitchy Evans
Evans was complaining of a problem with his hand in his 10-9 win over Luke Woodhouse in the last round. He said that he developed a twitch in his fingers and was finding it hard to grip the dart. Evans said that he had the issue before, about a year ago in his World Championship match which he lost to Rob Owen.
He didn’t know the cause, he suspects that it is a mental issue and the more intense the match, the more likely it is to kick in. It was noticeable that Evans started to throw much more quickly in the later part of his match with Woodhouse, getting rid of the dart, before he got a twitch.
Iceman Odds On
Gerwyn Price is the 1.14 favourite with Evans the 6.50 outsider. Normally I wound jump on a player at those odds who had a very recent win over the same opponent. However, this is a very different format. The longer matches favour the better, more consistent players.
Evans is perfectly capable of beating Price in a best of nine, or eleven leg match but in a best of thirty-one leg match? His chances get smaller, but they do not disappear. In Price’s last quarter final here in 2022, he lost 13-16 to Raymond van Barneveld, so his win is not certain.
Heavier Scoring
Of course, their H2H record overall favours Price, his tournament record massively points to a Price win, his heavier scoring points to a Price win and there is no doubt that he is a strong favourite. They have played four times on TV and Price won three, 10-3, 10-3 and 6-0. Pretty comprehensive.
In Evans’ favour? He has beaten Price, six times, including one just six days ago. He knows he can beat Price, but he also knows that he has received three absolute spankings when playing the Iceman on TV.
However, Evans has played well enough to think that he will win quite a few legs. His twitchy finger problem is a worry, but he got past Woodhouse with it. He is the big outsider and hopefully that will help to relax him a bit.
2025 GSOD Friday Tip: 1 point over 25.5 legs @ 1.80 with Hills
Luke Humphries vs. Michael Smith
Before they start this match, perhaps the referee should ask the crowd ‘Is there a medic in the house?’
Luke Humphries turned up for his second-round match moving like Quasimodo. He had woken up with a pain in the neck (haven’t we all?) and had considered pulling out (phnarr, phnarr), but he got a physiotherapist to give it a good rub and he was able to play.
He looked very stiff (stop it!) but was able to knock out a 108.55 average and 10-3 win over Jurjen van den Velde. Beware the injured dartist, but it was not an ideal situation.
Micheal Smith has a list of ailments that could fill a medical dictionary. He would love to just have a stiff neck. That he has got this far is a surprise, but surely this is a match too far, unless Humphries is totally incapacitated.
Higher Average
Humphries has a tournament average of 99.66, hit a nine darter and has had back-to-back ton plus averages. Smith’s tournament average is just 88.71 and he has already played, and lost 3-5, to Humphries in the group phase. His 10-9 win over Chris Dobey was a strange one. Dobey blew it, but to be fair to Smith he did play some very good legs, but he was happy to be gifted the win.
Their H2H record is 14-10 to Humphries and in 2025, 3-1. Humphries didn’t play well against Smith in the group stage and if he can play closer to his tournament average, he should be able to win this with something in hand.
I am a little concerned about Humphries’ neck, but hopefully it has been restored to full health, and he didn’t play too badly when he was in pain. Humphries is the 1.12 favourite and Smith 7.00.
Smith has played six Grand Slam quarter finals and won three. His heaviest defeat was in his first, a 3-16 loss to Phil Taylor. Smith averaged just 88.45 in that match, and given his form so far, he is not far off that sort of level.
