2025 GSOD Monday Preview & Tips – JP
2025 GSOD Monday Preview
Now, it is time for James Punt’s 2025 GSOD Monday preview. It was a mixed bag on Sunday with missed doubles causing us some heartache but at least Woody ensured we finished with a winner.
James Wade vs. Ricky Evans
A dead rubber for Wade, who has already been eliminated, which is a surprise. There is an extra £3k for finishing third in the group, so there is still something to play for, but I am not sure that is much of a motivating factor for Wade. He was thrashed 0-5 by Gerwyn Price last night but he did play well in his 4-5 loss to Bellmont in the opening match.
Ricky Evans very nearly blew his match against Bellmont yesterday and really should have won by a bigger margin than the 5-4 win he ended up with. However, he has hit back to back 95+ averages to win his first two matches and he has done enough to qualify, but there is a £3.5K bonus for winning the group and when you are 45th in the world rankings, that is important.
Their H2H record is 7-3 to Wade and 3-0 on TV and all three by wide margins.
Wade is 1.67 favourite, Evans 2.30. I hate these sorts of matches. Wade can’t qualify, Evans already has and while he would like the group win bonus, that is a bit of an irrelevance. No bet.
2025 GSOD Monday Tip: No Bet
Chris Dobey vs. Martin Lukeman
It is the same story here. Dobey has qualified, Lukeman is eliminated. Dobey needs to win a couple of legs to win the group given the leg difference with Heta and Van de Velde. I imagine he can do that. Lukeman isn’t in good form, losing seven of his last ten matches while Dobey has won fourteen of his last fifteen matches.
Their H2H record is 0-3 to Lukeman which is a bit of a surprise. Dobey is the 1.22 favourite to win, Lukeman 4.50. Despite their H2H record, it is hard to see anything but a win for Dobey, but the odds are of no interest. We have a couple of points on him to win the group and that is enough interest in this match for me.
2025 GSOD Monday Tip: no bet
Stephen Bunting vs. Luke Woodhouse
Yes, another dead rubber. Woodhouse has qualified for the knockout phase and Bunting is out. They are just playing for the extra cash. Winning three legs is enough for Woodhouse to top the group and land our 5.50 bet. He has been the best player in the group and deserves to win it.
Their H2H record is 13-1 to Bunting and their last match was an 8-3 win for Bunting in the final of the Swiss Darts Trophy in September. Bunting is the 1.61 favourite and you have to think that he will justify those odds given that very one sided H2H record.
2025 GSOD Monday Tip: 1 point Stephen Bunting to win -1.5 legs @ 2.10 with Betvictor
Martin Schindler vs. Alexis Toylo
Toylo went 2-0 up against Woodhouse last night but then lost five legs in a row. He has not played well, despite that win over a clearly bothered Stephen Bunting. Woodhouse just didn’t let it get to him and was able to play his usual game. How Schindler will cope is anyone’s guess, but he will be aware of what he is going to face, which helps.
Schindler played very well to beat Bunting 5-4 last night, averaging 100.78. He hit six 180s and with Bunting missing too many doubles, the German was able to get over the line. He should be too good for Toylo, so long as he copes with the ultra-slow pace of play.
Schindler is the 1.36 favourite, Toylo 3.50. I can’t get excited about this one.
2025 GSOD Monday Tip: No Bet
Damon Heta vs. Jurjen van der Velde
Neither player has averaged above 90 in their opening two matches. Both have beaten a very out of form Martin Lukeman and both got thrashed by Dobey. Heta is the 1.50 favourite and he is the better, more experienced player, but he has lost six of his last ten matches and is not the good thing that the odds suggest.
66% of the group matches have seen over 7.5 legs so far, and another here would not be a surprise.
2025 GSOD Monday Tip: 1 point over 7.5 legs @ 1.91 with Boylesports
Gerwyn Price vs. Steffan Bellmont
Swiss number 1 Steffan Bellmont has played well in his first two matches, beating James Wade 5-4 and taking Ricky Evans to a deciding leg. Evans let him back into the match, but Bellmont has been able to take then chances presented to him.
His problem here is that he is unlikely to be given any chances by Gerwyn Price who looks right up for this event. Price crushed James Wade 5-0 and he didn’t play badly when he lost 4-5 to Ricky Evans.
I expect that Bellmont is going to be put to the sword tonight. Price is the 1.14 favourite, Bellmont 6.00.
2025 GSOD Monday Tip: 1 point Gerwyn Price to win -2.5 legs @ 1.70 with Ladbrokes
Michael Smith vs. Alex Spellman
Group A is the only group where technically, all players are still in with a chance of qualifying. Luke Humphries is in pole position having won his first two matches, while Spellman has lost both of his, and won just two legs. He isn’t going through, unless Smith has a complete meltdown.
Bully Boy is trying his best but due to his various health problems he can’t practice the way he needs to. That means he is not the player who won the World Championship in 2023.
Smith beat Nathan Aspinall 5-3 in the opening group match, but it was a very poor effort by Aspinall who missed nineteen doubles. Smith was able to take three legs off Humphries but it was a poor match and Humphries didn’t play well, his 9-darter excepted.
If Smith wins this, he just has to hope that Humphries beat Aspinall, but first of all he has to beat Spellman.
81 Average
The American has averaged just 81 across his two matches so far, and even a crocked Smith should be able to cope with that. Of course, Spellman might find his A game, but the fact is that he has hit just eight 90 plus averages in his last fifty matches, and just three above 91.
Smith has averaged 88 in both his opening matches, so we have to expect a low quality grind. Smith is the 1.33 favourite, Spellman 3.60 and neither player makes any appeal at those odds.
However, I will back Smith to hit the most 180s. He has hit five so far, compared to one for Spellman. The American has a 180 per leg rate of just 0.16 over the last twelve months. Smith’s rate is not what it used to be at 0.23, but he has hit them at 0.31 per leg in his first two matches, so his eye has been in so far.
2025 GSOD Monday Tip: 1 point Michael Smith to hit the most 180’s @ 1.73 with BET365 and Betfred
Luke Humphries vs. Nathan Aspinall
Aspinall came into this tournament full of beans and playing well. He was/is expecting to win something big, but he was very poor against Smith and only OK against Spellman. He has missed twenty eight doubles across his two matches so far and it is hard to win matches when failing to take your chances.
Humphries was fine in his 5-0 win over Spellman, but it was an easy task. Against Smith, Humphries wasn’t great, dropping three legs to a player averaging 87.84. He is going to need to get going and hitting a nine darter to end his match with Smith only papered over a few cracks.
Their H2H record is 17-9 to Humphries, and in 2025, 8-2, including their last five in a row.
Humphries is the 1.57 favourite, Aspinall 2.50. It is a tricky one to call. Their H2H record says that Humphries is the most likely winner, but surely Aspinall finds his game at some point? I am happy to give this match a swerve.
