2025 GSOD Saturday Night Preview & Tips – JP
2025 GSOD Saturday Night Preview
Now, it is time for James Punt’s 2025 GSOD Saturday Night preview. James landed one winner from two bets last night, find out who he fancies tonight below.
Friday Reflections
One leg short of a double last night. Ricky Evans went 4-0 down (should have been 3-1 up) after missing a hatful of doubles and he never really got back into the match. It was another strong finish to a match by Price to win 16-9, when we needed 16-10.
It looked like Luke Humphries was going to throw away his match with Michael Smith. He was brilliant to start with and took a 7-3 lead at the second break, but he then was terrible and Smith levelled at 7-7. Humphries was able to recompose himself and won nine of the last ten legs to win 16-8.
Tonight’s two remaining quarter finals sees two short-priced favourites looking to book their place in the final day’s play.
Danny Noppert vs. Lukas Wenig
We are at the stage of a big major tournament where Noppert tends to lose. To be fair, he loses more semi-finals than quarter finals. He has played in thirteen ranking major quarter finals and won nine, including his last five, and three in 2025. Noppert has won eight of his last ten matches and his tournament average is a very healthy 98.50.
Lukas Wenig is the fairytale story of this year’s Grand Slam. He only got his tour card in January 2024 and here he is in a major quarter final, and into the top 64 in the World Rankings. He just missed out on qualifying for next weekend’s Players Championship finals, but will be at Ally Pally, so he should have done enough to hang on to his tour card for 2026. The German will be feeling very good. Wenig’s tournament average is 91.19 and he too has won eight of his last ten matches.
Limited H2H
Their H2H record extends to just their Group H match, which Noppert won 5-4, but it was a case of Wenig losing it. The German was 4-3 up and missed five darts to win 5-3. He then missed three more match darts in the deciding leg.
That looked to be the end of his chances in the Grand Slam, but he bounced back to beat Jonny Clayton 5-3 and Cam Crabtree 5-1 and ended up winning the group. Wenig then played the much-fancied Niko Springer in the second round and he won that 10-8.
Top Timing
I was very impressed by his set up play and his doubling. His timing was excellent. Springer often found himself looking the strong favourite to win a leg, only for Wenig to throw a big number and set up a gettable finish. That put a lot of pressure on Springer, and he found himself getting his pocket picked.
There was a 154 checkout which winded Springer and from that point on it was Springer who was under the cosh. Wenig did faff about in the penultimate leg but he won it with a very tidy 14 dart leg.
Wenig said that he was very nervous and found it very difficult to play in that match, but while he did miss a few doubles late on, he looked surprisingly composed to me. It was only a 93.20 average but he made the most of his game and deserved the win.
Longer Format
That was the longest match he had played in, and this is an even longer format. He is very fit so he should be able to keep his concentration up, but the difference in firepower is his biggest problem.
Noppert is likely to get to a finish much more often than Wenig and if he takes his chances, he wins. Wenig will have to do what he did to Springer and try to put Noppert’s doubles under pressure. That is a big ask in a very long format match.
Noppert is the 1.25 favourite, Wenig 4.75. I think that Noppert will win, but I have been impressed by Wenig in this competition. Doing the right thing at the right time has been a talent multiplier. He has punched above his weight and if can do so again, he could make more of a match of this than the market thinks.
2025 GSOD Saturday Night Tip: 1 point Lukas Wenig to win +4.5 legs @ 2.10 with Betfair
Luke Littler vs. Josh Rock
Littler has won eight of his last ten matches and his tournament average is 100.90, very much in line with his seasonal average. He has only lost nine legs so far. This time last year Littler averaged 105 in a 16-2 win over Wattimena. I would expect Rock to put up stiffer opposition.
Josh Rock lost his opening group match to Wessel Nijman, who was dispatched 10-4 by Littler in the last round. Rock only just beat Conor Scutt 10-9 in his second round match, averaging 89.73, and he wasn’t great on his doubles. Littler beat Scutt 5-3 in a group match.
Those two form lines are favourable for Littler. Rock’s tournament average is 98.71 but he has had two matches where his doubling has caused him problems.
H2H
Their H2H record is 2-0 to Littler. Both matches were played this year. They met in the semi-final of the Matchplay and Littler won that 17-14 in a match of the highest quality. The other was in the final of the Flanders Darts Trophy which Littler won 8-7. It was another excellent match.
Rock is one of the few players who can match Littler in terms of firepower, but Littler is that bit better on the doubles. In their previous two matches they hit 44 maximums in 46 legs.
However, before lumping on an overs bet on the 180s, neither player has been good on the maximums so far. They have hit just 17 between them, and both at less than 0.25 per leg. Given that they are ranked 1st and 2nd for 180s per leg over the last 12 months, and Rock’s rate is 0.40 per leg, and Littler’s 0.45 per leg, they really haven’t fired.
Ton Plus Average
I think we can expect Littler to bang in something like a 105 average. The question is, can Rock stay with that? He hasn’t been very consistent so far. At times he has looked very good, totally focused on the target, but against Scutt he got a bit flustered and struggled. If he plays like that, he could get a hiding.
We are on Littler to win the title, so hopefully he wins and he is the 1.25 favourite. Rock is the 4.50 outsider which looks a touch generous, if he brings his A game. Rock played James Wade in a quarter final here in 2022 and lost that 16-15.
In yesterday’s previews I mentioned that over the last forty quarter finals, 57.5% had seen over 27.5 legs. They have played a best of 33 leg match in 2025 and that ended with thirty one legs played. This has the look of what should be a reasonably close match, so long as Rock can play better than he did against Connor Scutt. If he does, we have a game.
