2025 GSOD Thursday Preview & Tips – JP
2025 GSOD Thursday Preview
Now, it is time for James Punt’s 2025 GSOD Thursday preview. Last night didn’t go to plan and we nicked just one winner. Hopefully we can bounce back this evening.
Wednesday Reflections
It wasn’t a great night last night. The Woodhouse vs. Evans match landed the overs bet, but a strong run to the winning post by Price meant that one fell a leg short. However, it was the capitulation by Chris Dobey which did the damage.
Dobey was completely outplaying Michael Smith and got off the a good start, 5-2 up and very comfortable. As soon as Smith started playing better, Dobey just got tight and you could see it coming. Another Dobey bottle job. In the end, Smith did his very best to give the match to Dobey, but Dobey missed no less than 11 match darts and Smith fell into the quarter finals with a 20-dart leg. That’s why Dobey will never win a ranking major.
That wiped out the modest 2.68 point match betting profit, leaving us with +0.01 point. Pathetic really. Still, it’s my fault for putting 2 points on Dobey to win a match on TV. There are four more second round matches this evening and hopefully we can get back in the black tonight.
Lukas Wenig vs. Niko Springer
An all-German affair and maybe a second-round match that nobody was expecting. Lukas Wenig won Group H thanks mostly to Danny Noppert’s capitulation to Jonny Clayton in his final group match. Wenig beat Clayton 5-3, Cam Crabtree 5-1, and lost 4-5 to Noppert in a match he really should have won.
His tournament average is 90.52 and he has done nothing spectacular, but he has done the right things at the right time, except in his match with Noppert. He has taken his chances, unlike some more fancied players who are already at home.
Wenig is playing under his seasonal average of 91.55, but not by much. Wenig has won seven of his last ten matches and will be feeling very happy to have reached the knockout phase. A win here would move him up into the top 64 in the World rankings.
Springer More Accomplished
Niko Springer is the more accomplished player, having won on the Euro Tour and he is being touted as the next German number 1 etc. He is a good player but still learning. His lack of experience showed in his match against Beau Greaves when he tried to get the crowd to shut up. Dear oh dear. There was only going to one outcome after that and he lost 3-5.
Springer did beat MVG and Gary Anderson, but did so with pretty ordinary performances. Greaves was the better player in Group but it was Springer who finished in second place. Springer’s tournament average is 89.75, some four points under his seasonal average. That suggests he can move up a gear but he has lost five of his last ten matches and he is far from consistent.
H2H Level
Their H2H record is 5-5 and in 2025 1-1, but Springer won their only stage match 6-1 at the Austrian Darts Open back in May.
Springer is the 1.50 favourite, Wenig 2.70. From what I have seen so far, and from the two players recently, the value lies with Wenig. Yes, Springer has achieved more, but he may be a little overrated.
When he finds more consistency, we will find out how good he can be but as of now, he has plenty of ordinary performances. Wenig does as well but he is playing a little better than Springer in this event and the expectations are on Springer’s shoulders.
Lacking Experience
The longest match they have played was a German Super League semi-final which Springer won 8-6 back in 2022. The lack of experience of playing longer format matches is the problem for both players.
That German Super League semi-final was the longest match that Wenig has played. He is just not used to long matches where the lead can swing one way and then the other. We don’t know how he will cope concentration wise, or how he would cope with going a few legs behind.
The same can be said about Springer. He has played one best of nineteen leg match and lost it 8-10. He has played in more, big matches, such as his two Euro Tour finals, but he is not a vastly more experienced player.
I give Wenig more of a chance the market does.
2025 GSOD Thursday Tip: 1 point Lukas Wenig to win +2.5 legs @ 1.80 with Betvictor
Josh Rock vs. Connor Scutt
Rock came into this event in poor form, but he went home for a couple of weeks and worked on his game, put the work in and to his credit, he is back to his best, and his best is very good.
His tournament average is 101.70 and the only surprise is that he lost 4-5 to Nijman, despite averaging 109.23. He is another one of the PDC Slimmer’s World group, having dropped a couple of stone, and he needed to. He is doing it while he is still young which makes it easier and it should have a lesser impact on his form.
Connor Scutt has won seven of his last ten matches and is playing well enough. His tournament average is 94.41 but he upped his game against Luke Littler with a 99.48 and his A game is even better than that. Scutt lacks the consistency of the top players, but he is playing well enough right now, but enough to beat Rock in good form?
Rock Dominant
Their H2H record is 6-0 to Josh Rock. They have only played one match on stage, on the Euro Tour in 2022, and Rock one that 6-0. Rock is the more experienced player and much more used to playing in long format TV matches.
Scutt has played in four best of nineteen leg matches on TV and won two, beating Gurney 10-3 in last year’s Players Championship finals and Price 10-9 in this year’s UK Open. His two losses were a 9-10 and a 7-10, so he has coped well in the longer matches.
Josh Rock is the 1.29 favourite with Scutt the 4.00 outsider. Fair enough, given their H2H record and respective tournament averages. They have played twice in 2025, both best of eleven leg matches and they ended with 6-5 and 6-4 wins for Rock.
Can Scutt stay close to Rock in the longer format? I will give him the benefit of the doubt. Rock averaged over 106 in both those matches, so Scutt was taking big punches and still hung in. You can get a generous looking 1.67 for over 15.5 legs, but I will be a little more ambitious.
2025 GSOD Thursday Tip: 1 point over 16.5 legs @ 2.10 with Ladbrokes
Luke Littler vs. Wessel Nijman
An interesting clash. Nijman is a player who has been a thorn in the side of Littler in the past. They have played nine times and Nijman has won six. Five of those matches were at junior level on the Development Tour and in their three senior matches it is a more realistic 2-1 to Littler.
The one win that Nijman got landed us a nice bet. It was Euro Tour event deep in eastern Germany. Littler had played Premier League on Thursday night and had to make his way to Germany for the last match on the Friday night. He was exhausted and lost 3-6, averaging just 83.98. It was not even representative of Littler’s B game.
Nijman No Mug
Nijman has won thirteen of his last fourteen matches and hit eight ton plus averages. He can punch at Littler like levels. His tournament average is 97.27, Littler’s is 99.41. Not a lot in it, but this is a long format match and Littler is much more experienced in these sorts of matches, and is used to winning them.
Nijman has played in two long format matches on TV, both at this year’s Masters. He beat Aspinall 10-6 but lost in round two, 5-11 to Wade.
Littler is the 1.20 favourite and Nijman 4.50. In a short format, I might take Littler on at those odds, but the longer format is in his comfort zone. We are on him outright and that will do for me. No bet.
2025 GSOD Thursday Tip: No Bet
Michael van Gerwen vs. Danny Noppert
MVG is hard to call right now. He has lost five of his last ten matches, but hit seven 96+ averages, including a 108.45 in his 5-2 win over Gary Anderson. When he is in the right mood, he can still bang. He just isn’t the super confident winning machine he used to be.
Danny Noppert has lost all four of his Grand Slam second round matches but he comes into this one having won eight of his last ten matches and hit four ton plus averages, including two 107s. One of those was against Jonny Clayton in his final group match, and he lost that 4-5, having been 4-2 up. It was a Dobeyesque like performance. A capitulation par excellence.
MVG Leads H2H
Their H2H record is 12-6 to MVG. Noppert won their last match 6-5 in late September, but Van Gerwen was at a low ebb then. His divorce was going through and he was not in the mood for darts. After that match he withdrew from the final two Euro Tour events and the remaining Players Championship events, denying himself the chance to qualify for the Players Championship Finals.
He is still not out of his funk, but he is trying to wind himself up for the World Championship. MVG made the semi-final of the European Championship three weeks ago and took time out after that, returning for this event having not played for those three weeks.
Clearly MVG’s A game is still there. We saw it against Anderson. It is just a matter of where his head is at. Perhaps that run to the semi-final of the European Championship has whet his appetite? He will not be playing at the Players Championship, so this event is his last competitive outing before the World Championship, so he would like a few more long format matches.
MVG is the 1.57 favourite, Noppert 2.50. If MVG is up for this, he should win and I will take the chance that he is and that he’ll cover the handicap.
