2025 Hungarian GP Betting Preview

Now, it is time for James Punt’s 2025 Hungarian GP outright betting preview. James had another profitable weekend in Belgium, fingers crossed for more of the same.

2025 Hungarian GP

We managed a 4.95-point profit in Belgium last weekend. It was disappointing that we never got to see a wet race in the end. The powers that be are just too scared of anyone getting hurt that they have become very risk averse and F1 is slowly becoming a dry formula. Rain is rarely a problem in Hungary at this time of year, but certainly not unheard of. More on that later.

We are moving from the last two Grand Prix on old school, fast and flowing tracks to the Hungaroring. It is often referred to being a bit of a go-kart track, but I like it, maybe because I have made a lot of money here in years gone by.

Past Successes

The 2009 Hungarian GP produced a 201.00 dual forecast win when Hamilton won from Raikkonen. Alonso winning his first F1 race at 41.00 in 2003 was another, but it hasn’t all been good news as I backed Damon Hill to win the 1997 race for Arrows at 151.00, only for a split washer in his gearbox to turn a very comfortable lead, into a tortuous slide back to second place when he got in third gear in the dying lap.

It is a quirky track that can throw up surprise results, the most recent being a win for Esteban Ocon here in 2021 in the Alpine. He is not alone in getting his debut win here, a few other drivers picked up their first F1 wins here, including Fernando Alonso, Jenson Button, Heikki Kovalainen and last year, Oscar Piastri.

The 2025 Hungarian GP Track

The Hungaroring was first used in 1986 and was the first F1 race to be held behind the Iron Curtain. It was purpose built as an F1 facility, but this was in the days before the rise of the ‘Tilke domes’ or the more recent street track craze.

The track is a short lap and a 70-lap race. It has fourteen corners, six of which are slow. There is one reasonably long straight, which provides the best overtaking opportunity and is one of two DRS zones. The second is on a very short straight into the second corner. It is a waste of time having a second DRS zone as the straight is so short.

However, the second corner, a long slow lefthander which blends into a right hander, means good car positioning and grip can allow a driver to take the outside line into turn two and then have the inside line into three. Overtakes can be made here, but it is just as easy to have a collision. After turn 3, overtaking is just about impossible until the drivers make their way back to the start finish straight.

Some Great Races

The circuit has been referred to as Monaco without the walls, but at least you do get some overtaking here and it has produced some great races and strange results. It is a slow, high downforce track and has very little in common with Spa or Silverstone, and is the second slowest track on the calendar.

The only half reasonable form guide for it is Monaco. Even that track is not a great guide as it is even slower and allows for no overtaking, but qualifying performance in Monaco is worth considering as a guide. A car that is good in a high downforce set up and performs well in slow corners is what you need. Power is not that important.

Ferrari have had good slow corner performance, Alpine will appreciate the fact that it is not a power sensitive track but, like anywhere else, it will suit McLaren. They can run with a lower downforce set up but still produce a lot of grip, and the lower drag means they will be quicker on the straight. That in turn means they will be very hard to overtake, and they will be able to overtake more easily.

The pole position driver has won just three of the eleven races here in the turbo hybrid era. Given that this is a track with limited overtaking chances, that is odd, but it also underlines why this little track is so enjoyable.

The Weather

Friday is forecast to be mostly sunny and hot at 30 degrees. Saturday will see more in the way of cloud with an 25% chance of a passing shower, but still hot at 29 degrees. Sunday will be a little cooler at 27 degrees, mostly cloudy and with a 25% chance of a shower.

The chance of rain has receded as the week has gone on and hopefully that means we don’t have the chance of the stewards having too much influence over the outcome of the race.

Any rain here shouldn’t last long and maybe we might see the drivers being allowed out on a wet track, which is becoming a rarity these days.

2025 Hungarian GP: Team-by-Team

McLaren

Spa saw an easy 1-2 for the sixth time in 2025 and the third race in a row. Piastri got the first lap jump on Norris and that was that. Norris tried a different strategy and but for a couple of errors, he might have pulled it off. They finished 1-2 here last year in a messy race when the team had to manage their drivers to swap positions twice. That is unlikely to happen this year as the Constructors’ title is all but in the bag and the two drivers are now fighting for the Drivers’ Championship.

Norris has been runner up here for the last two years and he will want to go one better this year. Piastri won his Formula 1 race here last year so the venue holds positive mental associations.

McLaren got pole position at Monaco, with Norris setting the fastest ever lap there. That suggests that they will go very well this weekend. The team to beat, but which driver can claim the 25 points?

Norris has never been out qualified by a teammate in Hungary and if he can continue that trend, maybe it will be him. But the pole position driver’s record is not great.

Ferrari 

Happy that their suspension upgrade worked at Spa, but it was hardly a night and day difference. Hamilton was very poor until the team broke the Parc Ferme rules to change the set up on his car after a disastrous qualifying. It made a difference, and he went from a pit lane start to finish seventh. His wet set up was powerful, when it was wet, but Albon was a bridge too far in the dry.

Leclerc was able to hold off Verstappen for the entire race. It would seem the upgrade has moved them ahead of Verstappen and into a slightly more comfortable second-best position to McLaren. Upgrades can take a few races to get the most out of. The team will now have plenty of data to work on and they should have a better understanding of how to set the car up better this weekend.

Hamilton Has Fine Record Here

Ferrari were McLaren’s main rival in Monaco which bodes well for another podium this weekend, but with which driver? Leclerc has a best finish of fourth in Hungary, Hamilton will be attempting to win a record equalling ninth Hungarian GP this weekend. He has had four wins in the turbo hybrid era and was only off the podium three times in the last eleven years, and only once in the last seven.

Hamilton has struggled against Leclerc in qualifying, but it is 3-3 in the last six GP qualifying sessions. In the races, Leclerc is 11-2, which suggests that he is the more likely to be Ferrari’s best chance of a podium. Or will Hamilton’s amazing track record see him ahead of Leclerc, as it did at Silverstone, another very strong venue for the Englishman.

Ferrari have had eight podium finishes here in the last ten years (doubles in 2017 and 2018), but only on in the last five years.

Mercedes 

Very disappointed with their performance in Belgium. Russell wasn’t that far away from his usual sort of race result, finishing fifth, but they were off the pace in qualifying and never threatening the podium. The hot conditions in Budapest will not suit them this weekend. The cloud cover on Saturday and Sunday will mask the problem but it is still out of their comfort zone.

Monaco saw their worst qualifying performance of the season, with their two drivers managing 14th and 15th. They failed to score any points. That really does not bode well for this weekend.

Russell was third here in 2022, his only top 5 finish in six starts. The Hungaroring was the scene of Russell’s first F1 pole position in 2022. Antonelli is having a crisis of confidence and an unsuitable track is hardly going to help.

Russell believes the team has lost its way with the car and needs to go back to how they ran it earlier in the season. It would hardly be the first time that Mercedes have not understood their car in the ground effect era.

Red Bull 

In their first race weekend without Christian Horner in attendance, Red Bull did OK. Verstappen won the Sprint race with a good strategy, well executed. In the Grand Prix, he was shafted by the fact that he set the car up for a wet race, but the stewards did not allow them to race in the rain. They waited for the rain to stop and as soon as the track dried enough for slicks, Verstappen was on the wrong set up. He was giving Leclerc problems in the wet, but in the dry it was easier for Leclerc to hold him off.

Verstappen has won twice here, but it took him eight races before he got his first. He did score his first ever pole position here in 2019 (his only pole position here), but it has not been a particularly strong track for him.

Tsunoda has two top 10s and there were some positive signs for him in Spa. Firstly, the team gave him the new floor which helped and he qualified seventh for the Grand Prix, but the team managed to mess up his pitstop, calling him in too late and he dropped places which he could not recover from.

Red Bull didn’t do well in Monaco with Verstappen only qualifying 5th, Tsunoda 12th. Likely to find McLaren and Ferrari are stronger than them this weekend.

Williams 

Albon got his best result in the last six races in Spa, finishing sixth after qualifying fifth. Sainz had his fourth pointless race from his last five, but he was sixth in the Sprint. It is never straightforward with Williams.

Sainz was another who switched to a wet weather set up, only for that to be made the wrong thing by the stewards’ fear of racing in the wet. He also tried a two-stop strategy which was not the best one.

Williams managed a double points finish in Monaco (9th and 10th) which suggest they could be in the hunt for a few points this weekend. Sainz has finished in the top nine for the last nine years here. Albon has not scored for Williams here.

However, it has been a poor venue for the team in recent years. They had a double points finish in 2021, but that was with six retirements and DSQ in the race. Before that, the last time was ninth for Bottas in 2016.

Sauber 

Got their fifth points scoring weekend in a row at Spa, but this time it was Bortoleto who finished in ninth. We had backed Hulkenberg for a points finish and the first half of the race saw him rise up to ninth place, but he made a late switch to a two stopper, came out in traffic and could not get past the four cars in front of him. The two-stopper ended his chances but again, the Sauber’s race pace was very good.

Hulkenberg has a really poor record here, scoring just one point since 2024, but he has only been out qualified by a teammate once in Hungary.

Hulkenberg qualified 13th at Monaco, his joint second best qualifying result of the year, and that was before their upgrade in Spain which has completely turned their season around. Bortoleto has out qualified Hulkenberg in four of the last five GP qualifying sessions and is really finding his feet.

Maybe a double points finish is possible this weekend? Maybe, but as usual the competition for the minor points will be fierce.

Racing Bulls 

It was an eighth place for Lawson in Spa, his third points finish in the last six races. Hadjar had qualified eighth, but he had a problem with the car and finished last.

Racing Bulls will be looking forward to another slow, high downforce race weekend as they had their best result at Monaco, scoring their only double points finish of the season with 6th and 8th. Both drivers have scored a podium here in junior Formulas.

Aston Martin 

A strange weekend for Aston Martin in Belgium. They brought some updates and it seems they lost their way. The problem was compounded by going for a wet set up which was hurting them once the track dried out. Qualifying 19th and 20th meant that they were screwed in any case. That ended a run of four straight points scoring races.

Alonso qualified seventh in Monaco but retired with an engine problem. He has eight top nine finishes here in his last nine races and it was the scene of his first F1 race win. He should be in the mix for more points, but that their Spa upgrades seem not to have worked is a concern.

Haas 

Had a great sprint race at Spa, getting a double points finish. They both just missed out on Q3 for the Grand Prix and then the race just didn’t go to plan. Ocon pitted late for slicks and he was less than amused. The same strategic error befell Bearman, and he was further hurt by having been set up correctly for the forecasted weather, only for the race to be red flagged until the rain stopped. The team have admitted that they underperformed on Sunday and cost themselves points.

Ocon qualified eighth in Monaco, his best GP qualifying of the year, and got a season best finish of seventh. The team are optimistic of having a good weekend in Hungary, but so are a few others.

Focus On Basics

Team principle Ayao Komatsu said that with one race before the summer break “we need to focus on the basics, and if we do that extremely well, I honestly have no doubt that we can score with both cars.” That is showing a lot of confidence, and that is rare.

Bearman scored podiums here in F3 and F2. Ocon will always have fond memories of winning his only Grand Prix here in the crazy 2021 race. Outside of that he has just two other points finishes, both in ninth place.

The team do not have a good record here. There was a double points finish in 2018 but Magnussen’s 10th place in 2020 is their only other points finish. Maybe Komatsu’s faith in a double points finish is a touch optimistic, especially as Bearman keeps on finishing eleventh.

Alpine 

Spa was never going to suit the Alpine, but Gasly qualified eighth for the sprint but had a DNF. In the GP, he qualified 13th but did a great job to finish 10th. The wet start gave him a chance, but he did well to keep faster cars behind him when it dried out. He is doing a great job in a limited car.

The high downforce, low speed of the Hungaroring should help their car be more competitive but they did not have a good time in Monaco, in qualifying or the race.

Gasly has three top six finishes here, but also three DNF’s.

2025 Hungarian GP Summary

It is hard to see past another win, and a probable 1-2 for McLaren. Their car is good on all sorts of tracks and their 1-3 qualifying and race finish in Monaco is a good pointer. Piastri won here last year, Norris has been runner up in the last two. As usual, it does look to be a bit of a toss-up between the two. Both can be backed at 2.75 for the race win.

The McLarens were split by Charles Leclerc in Monaco, but he is something of a track specialist on his home turf. However, he has yet to score a podium here in Hungary. Could the Ferrari challenge be led by Lewis Hamilton this weekend? He has a very strong record here and he is starting to match Leclerc in qualifying, but his race record H2H with his teammate in 2025 is poor.

Yet To Podium

Hamilton has yet to score a podium finish in 2025, but he was fourth in two of the last three races. Qualifying has been his weakness, and his best qualifying result was fourth in Austria, and also in Monaco. The latter is encouraging.

The Ferrari has performed well on the slower tracks and perhaps the new suspension set up will improve things? It was designed more to help them in higher speeds and the plank wear issue was at its worst on the faster stuff with high fuel loads. The ‘old’ Ferrari would have been competitive here, but hopefully the upgraded one will also be.

If McLaren and Ferrari look likely to be podium contenders, what about the other two of the ‘big four’?

Team Max

Red Bull are still really just team Verstappen. He has only had five podiums from the first thirteen races and they have tended to be at the faster circuits. He finished fourth in Monaco and that was probably as good as he could have done. The two Mercedes were nowhere that weekend which helped.

Mercedes hit a low point at Monaco which is not an encouraging sign. They lost the plot in Belgium last weekend and they have not been that impressive since winning the Canadian GP. The hot conditions are going to hurt them this weekend. The car has needed cool conditions, a smooth track with short corners. That isn’t the Hungaroring.

Russell hasn’t had much success here and Antonelli is struggling. They are hard to fancy this weekend, and they may even free up a place or two in the top 6, or as happened in Monaco, the top 10.

Midfield Battle

Is there anyone in the midfield pack that might crash the top six party at the 2025 Hungarian GP?

The ‘best of the rest’ driver over the season so far is Alex Albon. He has scored four top six finishes but only managed ninth at Monaco. I would say the car is better on faster tracks, and I would be worried about the high ambient temperatures giving them reliability issues. Carlos Sainz has not finished higher than eighth in the GPs.

Nico Hulkenberg has scored two top six finishes and those two came in the last five races. Sauber’s season really only started in Spain. 37 of their 43 points have come in those five races since the upgrade. His joint second best qualifying came in Monaco, pre upgrade and that is a hint that this track might suit. The big downside is a lousy track record. However, at odds of 17.00, I can overlook that record.

Past Winner Ocon

Esteban Ocon has won here and has one top six finish in 2025. His team boss is talking up their chances here, saying a double points finish is realistic, if they execute things perfectly. And that is the problem. Race execution has not always been slick. And their qualifying pace is poor. However, Ocon qualified eighth in Monaco, his best qualifying result of the season. At 15.00 he is worth considering.

Issack Hadjar has been impressive in his rookie season and his best result of the season was a sixth place at Monaco. He has not scored a point in the last four races, but he was in good form again in Spa, ultimately let down by his car. He is just 7.00 to finish in the top six, which is a bit thin on value.

Points Finish Market

The points finish markets is very competitive. Who you can rule out is a very short list that consists of Colapinto, and errrr…that’s it.

The Racing Bulls had a very strong Monaco weekend, which accounts for their short odds in the top 6 market. Perhaps backing them for the top ten is more realistic. You can make a case for a double points finish for the Racing Bulls, but then again, you can do the same for Sauber and even Haas.

The are only ten points scoring places and the Big Four usually fill six of those places. There is a chance that Mercedes struggle this weekend. Antonelli has not scored a point in six of the last seven races. Russell only missed out on the top ten in Monaco.

Reliability Issues

The Mercedes customer teams have suffered some reliability problems in the hotter races and that has to be built into the odds for the Williams and Aston Martin drivers (McLaren have avoided any problems and they do seem to be able to cool their power units very well). That may help the Ferrari or Honda powered teams that are Racing Bulls, Sauber and Haas.

Haas are bullish, but the team’s record here is poor. I still expect them to have a good chance to change that. Sauber’s recent form is very strong, and I do like a bit of good recent form. Bortoleto is really coming on nicely with two top 10s in the last three races and Hulkenberg is super confident and happy.

This could be a busy race betting wise. I am happy to leave the outright market alone for now. You can argue a good case for either McLaren drivers and, at 2.75 for both, there isn’t a lot of value there. Maybe after qualifying there might be.

Podium Betting

For podium betting, the value bet for me is Lewis Hamilton. We backed him for a podium finish at Silverstone and he finished fourth, his joint best finish of the season. He also finished fourth at Monaco, which is the best form guide for this race. Hamilton has a great record at Silverstone, and he has a great record at the Hungaroring. Maybe it is the go-kart like qualities of the track, but he invariably goes well here.

The same can’t be said for his teammate. Leclerc has yet to finish on the podium here, and while he has dominated Hamilton in the races in 2025, maybe like Silverstone, this is one where he might find Lewis giving him a hard time.

Selections

2025 Hungarian GP Tip: 1 point Lewis Hamilton to finish on the podium @ 4.50 with Ladbrokes

2025 Hungarian GP Tip: 1 point Nico Hulkenberg to finish in the top six @ 17.00 with Boylesports

The points finish market has a lot of contenders are by backing more than one selection may be spreading myself to thinly, but if the odds are good enough, why not?

2025 Hungarian GP Tip: 1 point Issack Hadjar to finish in the points @ 2.40 with Ladbrokes

1 point Esteban Ocon to finish in the points at the 2025 Hungarian GP @ 3.20 with Ladbrokes

2025 Hungarian GP Tip: 1 point Gabriel Bortoleto to finish in the points @ 5.00 with Hills

We will have the usual updates for qualifying and the race on Sunday.

-JamesPunt