2025 Italian GP outright betting Preview

Now, it is time for James Punt’s 2025 Italian GP outright, team by team betting preview. We managed to escape with a small profit from the Dutch GP, hopefully things go even better at Monza.

2025 Italian GP

The Dutch GP provided a small 0.90 point profit, but in a bit of a safety car fest, it was all a bit of a lottery in the midfield, and I was happy to get away with my feet dry.

This weekend we move on to one of the classic F1 tracks, the historic Autodromo Nazionale Monza. This is the fastest track on the calendar and the third oldest purpose built race track in the world. It is commonly known as the Temple of Speed…for obvious reasons.

The 2025 Italian GP Track

It is a very straightforward layout. Three long straights joined together by three chicanes, a couple of 90-degree right handers and two long, fast curves. It is about low downforce, high-power performance. The cars run at full throttle for 80% of the lap and obviously, the brakes are worked hard to slow the cars into the chicanes.

Teams will bring track specific aero packages with very shallow wings to minimise drag and increase top speed. There are two DRS zones, but they do not really work as the setups on the cars are so low downforce that opening the slot on the rear wing makes very little difference. Just getting an old-fashioned tow from the car in front is more effective.

It is hard to compare Monza to other tracks, but cars that go well on the faster tracks should go well here. The form from the last two races is not a good guide. Hungary and the Netherlands were both high downforce tracks with lots of corners, nothing like Monza.

Strange Results

For a straightforward track, this race has provided some strange results in recent years. In the eleven races here since the start of the turbo-hybrid era, the pole position driver has only won four times, and none of the last five. We have had winners from second (x3), from 3rd, 4th, 7th and 10th.

It was dominated by Mercedes for the first five races from 2014, but since than we have had wins for Ferrari (x2), Red Bull (x2) Alpha Tauri and McLaren.

The attrition rate has been quite high in the turbo hybrid era. The last two years have seen just one driver not classified in each race, but the average for the first nine was 3.11. It is quite hard on the cars. The power units are pushed hard, the braking events are large, the kerbs take their toll on suspensions and drivers trip over each other.

Tough To Predict

It can be a race that provides good drama, but it is not the easiest to predict, despite it looking like a very one dimensional, power dominated race. The fact that is a very low downforce track can throw up some unexpected performances. I have seen slow cars turn up here and suddenly be more competitive.

A car with poor aerodynamics can become relatively competitive because they have to take off a lot of downforce generators, like the rear wing. In the instance that your car has an inefficient rear wing, having to run something that looks like a tea tray can remove the thing that has been holding you back.

If your car was rubbish on high downforce tracks, it could be a lot better here. If it was rubbish on tracks like Silverstone or Spa, which reward aero efficiency, it could go better here. But you do still need a strong power unit to make the most of this track.

Most of the power units these days are producing much the same sort of power, but the Renault unit in the Alpine is still a few horses short of the others.

The Weather Forecast

The weather in Milan at this time of year is usually warm and pleasant. This weekend will be hot, around 28 degrees for all three days. Saturday will be partly cloudy but dry while Sunday will be what it says on the tin.

The 2025 Italian GP Teams

McLaren 

A very rare mechanical failure on Lando Norris’ car ended his race and ended McLaren’s run of 1-2 finishes. It probably also ended Norris’ chances of winning the World Championship. Piastri is now 34 points clear. There are still nine races to go, and a lot of points up for grabs, but Norris needs a DNF for Piastri, just to get his foot in the door. McLaren remain the dominant team and if anything, their advantage is increasing.

This was a race they lost last year when Piastri impeded Norris on the first lap after they had locked out the front row. In the second chicane, Piastri made an unexpected overtake which knocked Norris down to third place and Leclerc into second place.

Leclerc than stopped first and Ferrari put on hard tyres. This, unexpectedly, allowed him to run to the end of the race, without stopping again, catching McLaren out strategically. The faster car lost thanks to Piastri’s first lap move, which was enough to put Leclerc into a position of opportunity, which Ferrari were able to take.

Aero-Efficiency

The aero-efficiency of the McLaren will not be rewarded as well here as it is on most tracks, but you do still need some downforce to cope with the long Curva Grande, the two 90 degree right hand Lesmos and the sixth gear Curva Parabolica Alboreto at the end of the lap. McLaren should be better equipped for the bits of the track that are not straights.

Norris has two podium finishes here and always finished in the points. Piastri finished 2nd last year and 12th in 2023.

McLaren have not been specific about what caused Norris’ DNF in Zandvoort. Andrea Stella said that it was a chassis issue, not pointing the finger at the Mercedes power unit. However, he also said that their power unit and chassis are ‘one single team’. Rumours are that there was an oil leak, which was clear, and that shut the power unit down. I would call that a power unit problem, and we have seen quite a few for the Mercedes’ powered teams in 2025.

Ferrari 

A double DNF in the Dutch GP has put the team under a bit more stress coming into their most important race of the year. Win here, and they will be forgiven for generally being poor for the rest of the season.

Ferrari have won twice here in the last six years. In 2019 they had the most powerful power unit. So powerful that the FIA made them modify it at the end of the season. Of course, the FIA didn’t have the balls to disqualify them from the 2019 championship.

Last year they pulled off a better strategy than McLaren. A rare thing. This year they do not have the car to beat McLaren. Power wise, there is nothing in it. Ferrari have shown some good straight-line speed, but with that speed comes compression. The car gets pushed down close to the track as the speed generates maximum downforce. This is the danger zone for Ferrari. If the car gets too close to the ground, the under-floor plank hits the ground and can wear down to disqualifiable levels.

Lift And Coast

We have seen the drivers being told to lift and coast at the end of straights. This can be to save fuel or protect the power unit, or it reduces the amount of time the plank is hitting the ground. I suspect Ferrari have to do it to prevent plank wear.

However, will Ferrari’s default position of having to run with a higher ride height be as big a handicap here as at most tracks? Leclerc got his best finishing position of the year at Monaco because everyone has to run a higher ride height to cope with the bumpy nature of the street circuit. It was a level playing field.

Perhaps the penalty for having a high ride height on this track, another outlier on the calendar, won’t be quite as big a handicap as elsewhere? We shall just have to wait and see, but outlier tracks can produce unexpected performances.

Dutch Nightmare

The team had a nightmare in the Netherlands. They were completely lost on Friday, but they improved the setup overnight and where 6th and 7th in qualifying. Both drivers suffered a DNF in the race. Hamilton crashed on his own accord, Leclerc exited after being hit by Antonelli. By the end of the race, the team were spinning their performance as positive, coming back from nowhere to be in the hunt for points. That really is scraping the barrel.

Why they were so lost on Friday in the first place is the real question. That, on the back of Leclerc having a probable win in Hungary taken away from him by the team changing the car’s in race setup. In the end he could only manage 4th. That was a ‘strange chassis issue’ apparently. What’s the excuse this time?

It is the same old problem. They have not found a solution to the plank wear problem that got them disqualified in China. They have been reduced to raising tyre pressures, mid race, or changing the front wing settings, lift and coast etc. The Belgian upgrade was supposed to have fixed it.

One thing Leclerc did say is that the car hates long duration corners of which there is one massive one at Monza and the long Curva Grande could be challenging.

Leclerc Optimistic

Leclerc thinks this track will be better for them. Zandvoort was just full of things their car hates, but a win here is very unlikely. We shall just have to wait and see, but my gut feeling is that they will be better and probably on the podium. Ferrari will have been thinking about how to set their car up for this race, all season long. A repeat of Hungary or Zandvoort would have the knives out.

Just to compound Ferrari’s miserable weekend, Lewis Hamilton picked up a 5-place grid penalty for not slowing down sufficiently under double waved yellow flags during Sunday’s reconnaissance lap. I do not know why it was carried forward to this weekend, rather than being applied during the Dutch GP, but it is what it is. He will start five places back from where he can qualify. This is the only track where Leclerc has won twice. A hattrick seems unlikely.

Mercedes 

Russell finished 4th at Zandvoort but that was a bit flattering. He was flattered by the demise of Norris and the two Ferraris, but his race pace was compromised by crash damage caused by Leclerc’s lunge up the inside of Russell’s Mercedes. Leclerc was off the track and that should have triggered a penalty.

Mercedes didn’t pursue the matter, probably because Antonelli completely took out Leclerc a little later. There was a bit of quid-pro-quo going on. Leclerc had his lap time deleted for exceeding track limits, and that only happens when all four wheels are off the track, but he didn’t receive a penalty for causing a collision. You can’t have it both ways. Very poor stewarding.

Glory Days

Mercedes dominated here in the early days of the turbo hybrid era, winning five in a row, but they have not won here since 2018, and their last podium was for Russell in 2022. It is fair to say that they have not gone well here in the ground effect era.

Looking at the lay out of the track, lots of straights linked by a few chicanes and a couple of hairpins, it is not a million miles away from Montreal. However, there are a few significant differences. Montreal has nothing in the way of long duration corners, Monza has two very long ones. Monza’s track surface is a bit bumpier than Montreal’s, and the weather is going to be considerably hotter than it was in Montreal.

The Mercedes will be well suited by 75% of the track, but not the track temperature, the two long duration corners and the track surface. It is worth keeping an eye out for them in practice, but I do not think that this is a close enough relative of Montreal, or its conditions, for Mercedes to find its sweet spot. We will have to wait until Vegas for that.

Red Bull 

Got a flattering second place in Zandvoort, but Verstappen always looked good for a podium after a very good qualifying lap. Verstappen has said that he doesn’t expect to win again in 2025, but he also said that his car goes best on the faster circuits, and the car has gone well in Melbourne, Jeddah, Suzuka, Imola, Montreal, Silverstone and Spa, up to a point. The old school, fast tracks do seem to allow Verstappen to compete.

Monza has not been Max’s best track, but he spent a long time in underpowered cars which just were not able to meet the demands of Monza. When Honda finally got it all going, he won two of the last three. Those wins in 2023 and 2022 are his only podiums here.

Tsunoda got back into the points in the Netherlands, but his record here is two DNS, a 14th and a DNF. With Honda and Red Bull parting ways at the end of the season, Tsunoda’s days in F1 are numbered.

Williams 

Bought themselves some breathing space at Zandvoort with Albon’s 5th place finish. It was a very up and down weekend, but everything fell Albon’s way in the race, while Sainz had a coming together with Lawson and finished out of the points.

Williams did well here in the early years of the turbo hybrid era thanks to the Mercedes power unit advantage and in recent years, they have a car that was very strong in a straight line and they have picked up minor points here for the last four years.

Albon has had three top tens here from four starts and has always reached Q3. This was a home race for Sainz in his Ferrari days, but he had some success before that, finishing second for McLaren in 2020. He has finished in the top six, with two podiums in the last six years, so he knows how to be quick around Monza.

They are a hard team to bank on, but surely they get some points this weekend? The team have suffered just one DNF here in the last twenty-one years, which is impressive.

Aston Martin 

Ended up with a double points finish in the Netherlands, but how much of that was good fortune? Having looked like podium contenders on Friday, they looked marginal for points after qualifying. The race was not panning out well for Alonso, but the multiple safety cars eventually put the ball back in his court. He was honest enough to say that they got lucky, and so did we, so that was nice. The strategists did a good job with Stroll and putting him on to the hards after an enforced early stop turned his race around.

The Aston Martin is regarded as one of the least aerodynamically efficient cars. It has been slow on the straights, and this track does not look like a good fit. It hasn’t been a good race for either driver in recent years either.

Hard to fancy, unless they are one of those cars that surprises in a low downforce setup. We shall just have to keep a watching brief.

Racing Bulls 

Had a great weekend in the Netherlands. There was a fully deserved podium for Hadjar, whose stock had fallen a bit in recent months, but Lawson got involved with another accident, just as his stock was rising.

The mid-field’s form is very fluid and last weekend it was the turn of Racing Bulls to shine. They had been picking up points in recent races, but were being outperformed by Sauber. However, 18 points for Hadjar’s podium and a blank from Sauber flip flopped their Constructors’ Championship positions.

Lawson has raced here once in F1, and finished 11th. It is a tight track and very easy to have contact with other cars when in close racing. Lawson might have a spatial awareness problem, but whatever it is, he is not good in hand-to-hand combat. Hadjar is making his F1 debut but was 2nd in the F2 feature race here last year.

This team, in its various guises has won this race twice. Once was back in 2008 when Vettel won (and landed us a nice 101.00 pole position bet on the Saturday in very wet conditions) and again with Pierre Gasly in 2020. I doubt they will be enjoying a repeat of those two results, or even the podium of last weekend.

Kick Sauber 

The Bank of Sauber shut its doors at Zandvoort and their problem lies in qualifying. Hulkenberg has gone out in Q1 in four of the last five qualifying sessions and only made 14th when he did get into Q2.

Bortoleto is 5-0 with Hulkenberg in the last five qualifying sessions and he is now effectively the team leader come raceday. It is hard to say how they will go in a low downforce setup, but I would wait until after qualifying before looking at Sauber.

Bortoleto has a couple of F4 podiums here, another in F3 and won the F2 feature race last year (from 22nd place on the grid!). If the car is up for it, he could be back in the points come Sunday.

Haas 

Managed to pick up a double points finish at Zandvoort, but they did get lucky by playing the ‘stay out and pray for a safety car’ game. They held half the field up for a large portion of the race and just as their tyres were falling off the cliff, the safety car gave a golden chance to stop for fresh tyres and a sprint for the line.

It is a valid strategy for a slow car on a track where overtaking is hard, but it was an outlier in terms of their real form. Qualifying 18th and 19th was a more realistic reflection. Magnussen’s 10th place last year was Haas first points ever scored here.

Alpine

Lost a lot of ground to the lucky Haas cars in the Netherlands and Alpine are still in last place and now 24 points behind Haas. They just went too far on worn tyres and missed a good chance to score in a mixed-up race.

Gasly is a track winner but the team have not scored points here for the last three years and given that they have the least powerful power unit in the field, that is not a surprise. Colapinto has had some good results here in the junior formulae and he is driving for his career, so he needs to impress, which will be hard in an underpowered car.

2025 Italian GP Summary

With this track being a real outlier, I am happy to be patient and wait until we have seen the free practice sessions before having too many bets. The weather looks well set and dry, but while it is safe to say that McLaren will rule the roost as usual, the midfield looks as tricky as ever and the pecking order may well shift again.

There are two bets that I will make at this stage and hope that I haven’t gone in too early.

Williams have a steady recent record here and it is a track where they have gone well historically. The car tends to enjoy tracks with plenty of straights and both their drivers have solid records.

Sainz has not really been able to get on top of things and it is Alex Albon who has scored 64 of their 80 points. He has scored in ten of the fifteen races so far, and three of the last four. He has always made Q3 at Monza and has a 75% hit rate for points finishes.

2025 Italian GP Tip: 2 points Alex Albon to finish in the points @ 1.73 with Betfred, Ladbrokes

The second bet is for Charles Leclerc to finish on the podium at the 2025 Italian GP. Yes, Ferrari had a mare at Zandvoort, but come race day, he was going well, albeit helped by the generosity of the race stewards, before getting whacked by the increasingly desperate Antonelli. He was on track to win in Hungary before the plank issue bit them on the bum again.

But this is Monza. Ferrari have won more races here than anywhere else, they have scored more podiums than anyone else and it is the only track where Leclerc has won twice. The team build their season around getting a result here.

This year, a podium is the best result they can realistically hope for. There is also the question of who else is likely to be in serious contention? Verstappen has scored six podiums in 2025, but just two here in ten years.

Russell Has A Chance

George Russell has scored six podiums in 2025, but just two in his last eight. He has only managed one here. He is not without a chance, if the car can cope with the two long duration corners.

Leclerc has managed four podiums from his last eight races, and three from his last six here for Ferrari. But the main reason for the bet is that Ferrari do go well on home soil, they have to or their jobs are on the line.

Since 2009 there have been only three Monza races which have not featured a Ferrari driver on the podium. Hamilton has yet to score a podium in 2025 and has the added handicap of a five-place grid penalty to carry. If Ferrari are to carry on their good record here, Leclerc is the driver to get the job done.

2025 Italian GP Tip: 1 point Charles Leclerc to finish on the podium @ 2.38 with BET365

-JamesPunt