2025 Italian GP Qualifying Preview

Now, it is time for James Punt’s 2025 Italian GP qualifying preview. He has already written his outright, team by team betting preview, you can read that here.

2025 Italian GP Qualifying

Free Practice 3 saw the top ten drivers all within 0.4 seconds of the pace setter, Lando Norris. Charles Leclerc pulled out all the stops on his last flying lap to get within 0.021 of Norris. It could all come down to someone getting a good tow on their flying lap.

The Monza track is a long one at 5.8 km and you would expect the qualifying winning margin to be quite big. However, in the last eight qualifying sessions here, half have been under 0.1 seconds. The cars don’t spend much time in the corners and most of the lap is just foot to the floor straight-line stuff, and that tends to bunch the field up. Their straight-line speeds are similar with the very low downforce set ups.

The average qualifying winning margin in 2025 is 0.110. Of the fifteen Grand Prix qualifying sessions in 2025, nine have been under 0.1 seconds. Two others were literally a few thousandths over 0.1.

With the cars so tightly packed on the leader board, it looks like we will have another ultra close result this afternoon.

2025 Italian GP qualifying tip: 1 point qualifying winning margin under 0.0999 seconds @ 1.80 with Ladbrokes, Livescorebet

It should be close, but who will be on pole? McLaren have had nine of the fifteen pole positions, Verstappen has had four, with one each for Leclerc and Russell. Norris tops the charts with five, Piastri has had four.

The Aussie does tend to time his runs well. He builds up his speed, session by session, peaking in Q3. He didn’t run in FP1 this weekend, so he has had less track time. So far, Norris has been faster than his teammate in the two sessions Piastri has run in and the Aussie has been slower than Leclerc in both sessions. Advantage Norris? He is the 2.50 favourite.

Piastri is the 3.20 second favourite, much as he was last week going into qualifying. He nicked that by a whisker after Norris had been fastest in all three practice sessions. He also got a bit lucky, picking up a tow from Hadjar’s Racing Bull down the finishing straight.

In The Hunt

Leclerc is a 5.50 shot, Verstappen 9.00. They are in the hunt. Verstappen has not had a pole position at Monza, Leclerc has had two and it was Norris on pole last year.

Looking at the ‘ideal lap’, adding up each driver’s best sectors in FP3, and Norris is fastest, but only by 0.056 from Leclerc, and 0.119 from Verstappen. Piastri was fourth, 0.156 off Norris’ ideal lap.

Despite it being very close, most bookmakers are going win only for pole position betting. Hills and BET365 go e/w 1/5 the odds 1-3, which seems the way to go, but good luck getting a bet on with either. If you can get on, an e/w bet on Leclerc at 5.50 makes sense. Some firms, the famous Irish ones, are not even offering odds on qualifying which is very poor.

One team who have looked very strong, especially in a straight line is Sauber. Bortoleto was sixth fastest in FP3 and his ideal lap was also sixth, with Hulkenberg ninth. Bortoleto has out qualified Hulkenberg for the last five qualifying sessions and six of the last seven. He has been faster in FP1 and FP3. Hulkenberg has been very poor in recent qualifying sessions and he is hard to get enthusiastic about, despite the car’s pace around here.

2025 Italian GP qualifying tip: 1 point Bortoleto to out qualify Hulkenberg @ 1.67 with Livescorebet

Williams were flying yesterday, Sainz third in both sessions, Albon seventh, but today Sainz was only thirteenth, Albon tenth. Tyre temperature issues are to blame, according to James Vowles. There is always something with Williams. They are just 2.00 for both cars to make Q3, but they have only managed that three times and not all in the last eight sessions.

I will leave it at that. Norris looks most likely to get pole, but with the ‘Tow Factor’ so important here, it can come down to luck and at short odds, you don’t need that.

-JamesPunt