2025 Italian GP Raceday Preview

Now, it is time for James Punt’s 2025 Italian GP Raceday preview. He fired in two winners from two bets in qualifying, fingers crossed we continue in the same vein.

2025 Italian GP Raceday

It was another qualifying session with the leaders separated by a whisker, but give him a fast track, and Verstappen will rise to the challenge. We saw the fastest ever lap in Formula 1 history yesterday, another boxed ticked for Verstappen.

He shares the front row with Norris but this is a race were the pole position driver has only won two of the last nine, and we have had wins from 2nd, 3rd, 4th, 7th and 10th. Verstappen has had four starts from pole in 2025, and he only converted one into a race win. Indeed, two of those four poles did not even convert into a podium. He has the two faster McLarens behind him and Leclerc and Russell behind them, all potentially faster over a race distance.

Race Winner

The pole position has been a bit of a poisoned challis at Imola. The powerful tow gives the chasing car a real advantage. With the McLarens being the faster car, once they get past, they should be able to break the tow for Verstappen and leave him to mix it with Leclerc and Russell for the battle for the third step.

The driver starting second has won three of the last nine races here and two of the last four. Norris was the fastest driver in FP2 and FP3 and there is no doubting his race pace. His starts are often poor, but he usually makes up any places dropped.

He has had three second place starts in 2025 and finished 2/2/DNF, but this is a track where it might be an advantage to start from second. A bit like Spa. Norris needs not to drop places at the start and definitely not to have a coming together on what is always a perilous first lap. He has finished 2nd and 3rd here, and is due one.

2025 Italian GP Raceday Tip: 1 point Lando Norris to win @ 2.50 with Betfred, Hills, SpreadEx (2.74 on Betfair exchange)

Podium Finish

We backed Charles Leclerc for the podium in the preview at 2.38. He starts from 4th place, so that bet is still touch and go. Fingers crossed that he can keep up Ferrari’s strong record of podium finishes on home soil. He is very probably fighting with Verstappen and Russell for that final step. It is a bit of a worry that Leclerc said that his qualifying lap was just about perfect and it was only good enough for fourth.

George Russell believes that Mercedes underperformed in qualifying and he was not happy with the team putting him out on the soft tyres, when he felt the mediums were quicker.  He is not out of the podium battle but the two Mercedes are running with a bit more downforce. That was the right thing for a quick lap, but they are giving up time on the straights, especially to Ferrari, and that makes racing tough, even with a good overall lap time.

Top Six Finish

I think there is some value in Bortoleto’s odds. He is 3.50 to convert his seventh place into a top six finish, just as he did in Hungary. This is a very different track, but the Suber has been quick since tweaking their set up on Friday night, especially in sector 1 where both he and Hulkenberg were regularly setting a purple sector.

Clearly, Sauber have found a good setup and their race pace has traditionally been better than their qualifying pace in 2025. He has got Antonelli in front of him on the grid and the young Italian has been a bit ragged around this track.

Behind him are Tsunoda and Alonso and they are not to be feared. Hamilton coming through from tenth is more of a worry, but the Sauber looks to be a fast car around this track. Bortoleto was a little disappointed after qualifying, saying that he had left a bit on the table and could have taken sixth place.

2025 Italian GP Raceday Tip: 1 point Bortoleto to finish in the top 6 @ 3.50 with BET365

Points Finish

We are on Albon for a points finish for 2 points, but after a very encouraging Friday. Williams have gone backwards, qualifying 13th and 14th, having been 3rd and 7th in both sessions on Friday. They are blaming the soft tyres.

Neither driver was able to get it into the right window of performance. The good news is that they are confident that the race will be a different story. Once the tyres warm up, they have top ten pace, easily.

Overtaking is not that easy, and Albon has to make up four places. Everything needs to go right, no mistakes, no poor strategy and a bit of luck would be nice. Albon has pulled off some good drives from down the grid to finish in the points, so I am not giving up on him just yet.

Top 10 Contenders

There are, as usual, many contenders for the top ten. Alonso starts from an unlikely eighth place and with a car that is slow on the straights, he will have his work cut out to keep the likes of Hulkenberg and the two Williams behind him. Tsunoda starts ninth and his race pace is usually not great. Hamilton should make forward progress from tenth place.

The only driver I want to back in this market is Hulkenberg at 2.25. He had a messy Q2 and just missed out on Q3, but the car was fast and he can get back into the points if the car shows the sort of race pace that has allowed him to make up a lot of places in other GPs this season.

However, I am going to back Hulkenberg in another market at better odds.

Side Markets

I rarely get involved in the fast lap market as it often seems a bit random, but one driver’s odds do look like a bit of value for a small stakes bet. The McLarens have dominated the fastest lap market with five each for Piastri and Norris.

Max Verstappen has one and the other four all went to Mercedes, two for Russell and two for Antonelli. In the last six races, Mercedes have had three fastest laps, two of them for Russell. He set fastest lap in Q1 yesterday, on the medium tyre, so the car does have good raw pace, just not on the soft tyre.

2025 Italian GP Raceday Tip: 0.5 point George Russell to set the fastest lap @ 21.00 with Betfred

I mentioned that while I wanted to back Hulkenberg to finish in the points, there was a market with better odds. Ladbrokes have him in Group 3. The others in the group are Tsunoda, the two Williams and Oli Bearman. Tsunoda is the 3.00 favourite and he starts from ninth, Bearman 11th (where else for Mr. 11th place?), Hulkenberg from 12th, Sainz 13th and Albon 14th.

Hulkenberg is 7-1 with Tsunoda in the last eight races and starting a few places back shouldn’t change that. The two Williams cars are the biggest threat, but Hulkenberg has finished ahead of the best Williams in five of the seven races since the Sauber’s Spanish GP upgrade.

2025 Italian GP Raceday Tip: 1 point Nico Hulkenberg to win Group 3 @ 4.00 with Ladbrokes

-JamesPunt