2025 Japanese GP Qualifying Preview

Now, it is time for James Punt’s 2025 Japanese GP Qualifying preview. He has already posted an in-depth, team by team outright preview, check that out here.

2025 Japanese GP Qualifying

This morning’s two free practice sessions were not very illuminating. Both sessions were topped by a McLaren, Norris in FP1 and Piastri in FP2. There was less than a tenth between the two in FP2 and they were four tenths away from the next quickest car, the Racing Bull of Hadjar.

FP2 was very bitty with no less than four red flags, so there wasn’t a lot of running, which isn’t ideal. The first red flag was due to a massive crash for Alpine’s Jack Doohan. He hit the wall at the end of the start finish straight at 180mph and needless to say the car was very smashed up.

Doohan was shaken but released from the medical centre, remarkably free from concussion. Alpine are working flat out to get his car fixed in time for FP3.

Doohan had not run in FP1 and only had four laps before hitting the wall. He is very much on the back foot for the rest of the weekend. Gasly was ninth fastest in FP2 and he is carrying the team for now.

The second red flag was caused by Fernando Alonso going off the track and getting stuck in a gravel trap. It was a driver error that took him off and his poor start to the season continues.

More Red Flags

There were a further two red flags caused by trackside fires. The grass run off areas are like dry straw and the sparks from the cars’ skid blocks, combined with a strong breeze, caused the grass to ignite. The grass will be cut and watered overnight in order to minimise the chances of a repeat tomorrow. Rain is expected on Sunday morning so that should end the risk for the race.

The Mercedes of George Russell was second and sixth in the two sessions while Antonelli was a best paced ninth in FP1. Most eyes were on Yuki Tsunoda making his Red Bull debut. He was only a tenth off Verstappen in FP1, the two finishing fifth and sixth, but he was way back in eighteenth in FP2.

He wasn’t having the same level of grief that Lawson was having in the first two races, but it was not plain sailing. Tsunoda didn’t get a clean flying lap in Q3 so that time is not representative, but both Red Bull drivers were not happy with the handling of the car.

Racing Bulls Look Good

The Racing Bulls again looked good. They ended FP2 in third and fifth and they look to be best of the rest once again. Converting that into a decent haul of points is the target now.

Ferrari had Hamilton in fourth place in both sessions, Leclerc was third in FP1 but didn’t get any clear runs in FP2 and finished up seventh. They seemed to be having problems looking after their tyres, a bit like in Melbourne in the dry.

Williams finished tenth and eleventh in both sessions, with Carlos Sainz getting his head in front of Albon. The two Saubers finished FP2 in twelfth and thirteenth ahead of the Aston Martins. The Haas cars were out at the back in FP1 but a little better in FP2. They have brough a new floor this weekend, running it on Bearman’s car for a comparative test.

McLaren the Team To Beat

McLaren look the team to beat. The car hasn’t looked entirely at ease and they have some work to do to keep their noses in front. Second best? A toss-up between Russell and the Ferraris. Verstappen was never on the pace and on a track where he has dominated for the last three years, that is a bit of a tell.

It looks like the two McLaren drivers will be fighting it out for pole. Behind them it was very close between the Ferraris, Russell and the two Racing Bulls. We have to expect Red Bull to improve Verstappen’s car for qualifying, but he was 0.556 off the McLarens and that is too big a gap to close.

It is not ideal to be having a bet for qualifying, before seeing FP3. All the teams will be tweaking their setups and today’s pecking order can change, but I don’t expect anyone to catch McLaren.

Norris Fav For Pole

Norris is the 1.80 favourite and Piastri 3.25 for pole position. There is probably a bit of value in Piastri’s price but historically, Norris has been the better qualifier. I am happy to leave that market alone. There are two bets that I do like the look of.

I said in the preview that the two cars that look to be the easiest to drive are the Mercedes and the Racing Bulls. They both looked good in free practice and should be competitive again tomorrow.

Russell has qualified fourth in Melbourne and second in China. He was fifth in the sprint qualifying in China. He has outqualified Charles Leclerc in both GP qualifying sessions and was just one place off in the sprint qualifying in China. The Shanghai track was probably more Ferrari friendly and if the Ferrari is struggling to hang on to its tyres, Russell looks in a good position to outqualify Leclerc for the third time in 2025.

2025 Japanese GP Qualifying Tip: 1 point George Russell to outqualify Charles Leclerc @ 1.72 with Ladbrokes

The racing Bulls are looking strong. Even Lawson, who had not driven the car before today, was fifth quickest in FP2. Yes, it was a truncated session, but on the fast lap runs, both their cars were top five. This is a car track and that is telling me that the Racing Bull is a good car, with few vices. They may even be faster that the Red Bulls!

2025 Japanese GP Qualifying 1 point both Racing Bulls to reach Q3 @ 2.25 with Ladbrokes

-JamesPunt